A tractor trailer with an Alberta separatist ad sits just off a highway.Megan Albu/The Globe and Mail
The president of Alberta’s governing United Conservative Party says he believes that a majority of UCP members will vote against remaining in Canada in a referendum this fall, despite Premier Danielle Smith’s campaign in favour of Confederation.
Rob Smith, who heads the UCP’s board of directors, said the party will not pick a side in the lead-up to the separation vote, in which Albertans will decide if the province should stay in Canada, or if it should start the legal process to hold a second, binding vote on secession.
“The party proper will not be taking a position one way or another,” Mr. Smith said in an interview Monday.
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The Premier, after months of pressure from separatists, including from within her own party, said last week that she would put a question about secession on Alberta’s Oct. 19 referendum ballot, which will also include questions largely centred on immigration. Ms. Smith, who is not related to the UCP’s president, has declared herself a federalist in favour of a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.”
The UCP’s neutrality on the referendum question underscores the challenges that Ms. Smith faces as she attempts to cast herself as a champion of federalism while leading a party that is increasingly influenced by vocal separatists, who critics say hold disproportionate sway over the Premier.
Prime Minister Mark Carney on Monday told reporters that the Premier’s secession question is undemocratic because the UCP did not campaign on a referendum in the 2023 provincial general election. He also cautioned Albertans against supporting separation as a negotiating tactic with Ottawa, which he called a “very dangerous bluff.”
Mr. Smith said the party is staying neutral because its members have not debated or adopted a policy on independence.
“We are not an independence party at this point in time,” Mr. Smith said. But if a majority of Albertans vote in favour of separation in October, Mr. Smith said he will work with the board to see if the party should morph into an independence party, via a policy debate at its next AGM.
If Albertans reject separation, so will the UCP, he said.
“If the referendum comes back and the folks that support independence fall short of the majority, there will be no discussion within our party about independence,” Mr. Smith said.
He declined to share how he will vote. In November, Mr. Smith told The Globe and Mail that he was “open” to the idea of independence.
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Last fall, the Premier was booed at her party’s annual general meeting when she said she supported a sovereign Alberta within a United Canada, while a prominent separatist received a standing ovation when he asked the convention hall who supported independence.
Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the United Conservative Party AGM in Edmonton in November last year.Amber Bracken/The Globe and Mail
The UCP’s founding principles include “loyalty to a united Canada,” but the separatist movement has thrown the party into tumult.
The Premier had previously threatened an “unprecedented national-unity crisis” if Ottawa did not scrap laws that she viewed as hostile toward Alberta’s energy industry.
However, her relationship with the federal government has been on the mend under Mr. Carney.
The two leaders earlier this month unveiled details of a new energy accord, in which Ottawa agreed to support a bitumen pipeline to the West Coast while Alberta agreed to increase the carbon price it imposes on oil producers and to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions through carbon capture and storage.
Ms. Smith on Monday played host to the Western premiers’ conference in Kananaskis. There, British Columbia Premier David Eby slammed her decision to put the future of the country to a referendum while U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war against Canada continues.
“To say that this is the worst time to begin testing the bonds that hold this country together is a significant understatement,” he told reporters. “It threatens our national economy.” It empowers the people who want to break the country up “and sell us for parts,” he said.
Ms. Smith, at a separate availability with reporters, defended her decision, arguing that it reflected the will of hundreds of thousands of Albertans who lobbied her to put separation on the ballot.
She cautioned that: “I think it’s also incumbent upon everyone not to dismiss Albertans’ legitimate grievances.”
The Premier announced the referendum after separatists said they collected 301,000 signatures in an effort to use a provincial law to get a citizen-supported referendum question on the ballot.
The Premier made the move after a judge ruled that the petition in support of an independence vote was unconstitutional because the government did not consult with First Nations before Elections Alberta approved the signature drive.
The October referendum will ask voters to pick between two options. The question will read: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
Ms. Smith said the question is worded this way because the previous court ruling meant the referendum could not include a simple yes-or-no question on separation.