Campus Engagement Leaders Anmoal Gill (left) and Maryyam Fatima speak with students at York University in Toronto on Feb 25.Sammy Kogan/The Globe and Mail
There is one number that some political scientists will analyze closely when Ontarians go to the polls on Thursday, and it’s not the winning party’s seat total.
Instead, they’ll examine voter turnout as a measure of engagement with the political process. And, in this election, many observers expect that figure will be low.
“There are some very real headwinds,” said John Beebe, founder of the Democratic Engagement Exchange at Toronto Metropolitan University.
Late last month, Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford called a snap election ahead of the next scheduled date of June, 2026, catching many off guard. His party has a double-digit lead in public opinion polls, creating a perception that the race isn’t competitive.
Media coverage has been dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. As well, the rare winter election follows blizzards that paralyzed much of the province.
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“I’ll be honest with you, it just seems like this is a storm of people not paying attention,” said Laura Stephenson, a political science professor at Western University who studies political behaviour.
Fewer voters cast their ballots early this year, according to Elections Ontario. Approximately 6 per cent of eligible electors voted in advance, down from almost 10 per cent in 2022 and just under 7 per cent in 2018. However, advance voting was available for just three days, a shorter window than in earlier elections.
Overall, voter turnout has been declining in Ontario. Just 44 per cent of voters cast ballots in 2022 – a record low for the province. Turnout was nearly 57 per cent in 2018.
Voters have shown up at varying rates in other recent provincial elections. Turnout was low in Nova Scotia in November, where just 45 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots. In New Brunswick, 66 per cent of voters turned up in voting booths in October, the same as the previous election. And in British Columbia, turnout was 58 per cent in October, up from 2020.
Political scientists are divided on whether low voter turnout indicates an ailing democracy or merely a lack of public interest in a particular election. Some argue that lower numbers of voters signal that many are satisfied with the status quo.
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Part of the reason behind the trend of declining turnout is that society’s views have changed, said Jon Pammett, a retired political science professor at Carleton University. Older generations tend to see voting as a responsibility, while younger people are more flexible, believing it is important in tight races and when one feels strongly about an issue.
“It’s a change in the nature of civic duty, which has been going on for a while,” he said.
At York University on Tuesday, Anmoal Gill talked to students about the provincial election and the voter registration process, part of a 50-campus outreach campaign involving the Dais thinktank at TMU and Elections Ontario.
Over the past month, Ms. Gill said she’s found a “mixed bag” of election awareness – including some students who are excited to cast their ballots, and others who didn’t even know there is a coming vote – which she attributes to the unexpected election call.
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“I think there was a little bit of a lag in terms of knowing that it was so close and how quickly it was coming up,” she said.
During a campaign stop in Ottawa on Tuesday, Mr. Ford encouraged Ontarians to participate in the election: “We have a democratic process here, and the people should go out there and vote,” he said.
Most observers say they would like to see voter turnout increase.
“In political science, we do think that low turnout is a problem. It’s a problem because fewer voices are being heard. And representative democracy cannot actually be representative unless all the voices are heard,” Prof. Stephenson said.
Some researchers believe online voting has the potential to boost turnout, especially among voters in remote areas and those with mobility issues. Online voting has been used in some municipalities in Ontario as well as in other parts of Canada.
“We have good reason to believe that online voting … can certainly encourage certain voters to go to the polls who may not have been able to go otherwise,” said Nicole Goodman, a political science professor at Brock University who studies civic participation and digital technology.