Prime Minister Mark Carney walks to caucus with new members of the Liberal caucus MP for Terrebonne Tatiana Auguste, left, MP for University-Rosedale Danielle Martin, centre, and MP for Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum on Wednesday.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Despite wobbly French, an oil pipeline deal with Alberta and a recent speech on Canada’s colonial history that appeared to be wildly miscalculated, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s opponents grudgingly admit that – at least for now – he can do no wrong in Quebec.
Mr. Carney is in many ways an unusual choice for a province not often moved by talk of nation-building and partnership with the rest of Canada. But the Liberals’ by-election win this week in what was a Bloc Québécois stronghold signalled that the party’s gains in Quebec during last year’s federal election were no momentary blip.
Recent polling shows that Mr. Carney’s approval ratings are high across most of the country, with some of his highest numbers in Quebec, where support for sovereignty has taken a hit amid concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump. During the campaign in Terrebonne, a suburb north of Montreal, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet accused the Liberals of running on the “cult of Mr. Carney.”
The central banker, raised in Edmonton, “is the most popular politician in Quebec, all levels considered,” said David Heurtel, a political analyst and former provincial Liberal minister.
Mr. Carney’s understanding of Quebec and his grasp of its official language have, at times, left something to be desired. During last year’s election campaign, he confused the 1989 École Polytechnique massacre, Canada’s deadliest school shooting, with another shooting that occurred a few years later at a different Montreal university.
An election campaign sign showing for Mr. Carney is displayed along a street in Terrebonne, Que., on Monday.ANDREJ IVANOV/AFP/Getty Images
In January, he delivered a speech in Quebec City in which he referred to the defeat of French troops by the British on the Plains of Abraham more than 250 years ago as the beginning of a partnership. His comments did not go over well among Quebec’s political and media establishments.
The Prime Minister has also made policy decisions that might have been expected to invite pushback from Quebec, including a deal signed with Alberta last November to pave the way for a new oil pipeline to the West Coast. But none of it has mattered.
The Liberals won 44 seats last year in Quebec, up from 33; a year later, the party is polling far ahead of its rivals in the province.
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“We’re at the point where Mr. Carney’s reign is at its peak,” Mr. Blanchet told reporters in Ottawa on Tuesday after his party’s defeat in Terrebonne.
Quebeckers, who’ve been hit hard by Mr. Trump’s tariffs on exports including aluminum and lumber, see Mr. Carney as the best person to defend their interests, according to federal Health Minister Marjorie Michel, a long-time party organizer in Quebec.
“They feel safe with the Prime Minister,” she said in an interview ahead of the by-election. “They feel they’re in good hands.” Mr. Carney met on Friday with Quebec’s new Premier, Christine Fréchette, who was sworn in on Wednesday.
Mr. Carney visits a local store with Ms. Auguste last week ahead of the by-election in Terrebonne.Peter McCabe/Reuters
Still, it’s unclear to what extent people in Quebec connect with the man himself. “I don’t think it’s a personal popularity,” said Karl Bélanger, former NDP national director and president of Traxxion Stratégies.
“It’s linked to the fact that most Quebeckers think he’s in the best position to manage the relationship with the U.S. and Donald Trump,” he said. “I don’t think Quebeckers are impressed with his knowledge of Quebec … or his capacity to speak in French.”
The Prime Minister’s gaffes are “red flags” in a province that could be heading toward a third referendum on sovereignty, Mr. Bélanger said. His speech on the Plains of Abraham was the kind of “unprovoked error” that could be “devastating” if it were to occur during a referendum campaign, he said.
The Parti Québécois has promised to hold a referendum within a first mandate if it forms government during a Quebec election later this year. The PQ has led in the polls for more than two years, though a few recent surveys have given the Liberals a slight edge.
“You could, for the first time, have a referendum where the Prime Minister of Canada has no connection to Quebec whatsoever and doesn’t speak the language well enough to be convincing,” Mr. Bélanger said.
But support for sovereignty in Quebec has ebbed since the start of the year. In Terrebonne, Mr. Blanchet said the question of independence was not a “key element of the campaign.”
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The federal by-election has also spurred talk of changing demographics in key regions around Montreal that may continue to play in the Liberals’ favour. The search for affordable housing is drawing immigrants from the city into its off-island suburbs, including some, like Terrebonne, that have been bastions of sovereignty.
“This is a sign that things are changing,” said Catherine Gentilcore, who represents the provincial riding of Terrebonne for the PQ, in an interview before the by-election. She pointed to a similar demographic shift in ridings in Laval, Montreal’s largest suburb, which used to support the Bloc but have gone Liberal in recent years.
On Tuesday, Mr. Blanchet said he believed demographic changes hurt his party in Terrebonne. “We have a duty to reach out to people with immigrant backgrounds,” he said.
Above all, the Liberal victory in Terrebonne shows that sovereigntist parties are not connecting with Quebeckers’ “economic anxiety,” Mr. Heurtel said.
While they’re focused on “what an independent Quebec would look like in 10 years,” he said, “Quebeckers are wondering what’s going to happen to their pocketbook in 10 days.”