Good morning. Canada’s latest demographic data show a steep drop in fertility rates across every major city – more on that below, along with Doug Ford’s airport takeover and military help for the Gulf. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Nunavut MP Lori Idlout crosses the floor from the NDP to the Liberal caucus
- Iran targets commercial ships and the Dubai International Airport as U.S.-Israeli strikes continue
- Ottawa is eyeing moves to boost oil production amid the global supply shock
- Carney denounces the shots fired at the U.S. consulate in Toronto as intimidation
Sign up for Morning Update:
Reading this online? Start your morning with context and insight on the day's biggest stories, in your inbox every weekday.
Subscribe now
Canada now ranks among the 'ultra-low fertility' countries.Shay Conroy/The Globe and Mail
Fertility
Where the kids aren’t
Canada’s major cities have all gone top-heavy. More and more Canadians are living longer than ever – in fact, researchers from McMaster University suspect that by 2050, our average lifespan could reach 90 years old. The tricky bit, however, is there are fewer and fewer young people to support that aging population. The babies aren’t booming anymore.
This isn’t exactly new: Fertility rates in the country have been slumping for more than half a century. But The Globe’s data editor Yang Sun and generations reporter Ann Hui got their hands on Statistic Canada’s latest demographic figures, and they discovered we’re in the midst of an especially steep decline. Every single one of Canada’s 42 largest cities saw a drop in fertility rates over the past five years. The vast majority of those cities fell to record new lows.
A quick terminology primer: Though they’re often used interchangeably, birth rates calculate the number of births per 1,000 people, while fertility rates estimate the number of kids a woman will have over her reproductive life. To keep their populations stable, countries need an average fertility rate of 2.1 children. Back in the late 1950s, Canada hovered just below 4.0. We’re now at 1.25.
That puts us in the company of “ultra-low fertility” nations such as Italy (1.18), Japan (1.15), Singapore (0.97) and South Korea (0.85) – although no country in Europe or North America currently has a fertility rate above 2.1. Demographers would probably like me to note here that this isn’t a ticking timebomb: Immigration helps offset declining birth rates, and there are more than eight billion people on the planet, so we’re not about to go extinct anytime soon. But too many retirees and not enough workers pose a challenge for any country’s future economic stability.
The Globe and Mail
So governments across the world have rolled out incentives to spur people to have more kids. Lots of these policies are financial: Last year, China started paying parents about $700 annually for each child under 3; the U.S. offered $1,000 “Trump Accounts” to every eligible newborn; and Hungary gave mothers with three or more children a lifetime exemption from income tax. Some policies are practical: Sweden, which already provides 480 days of paid leave, now lets parents transfer 90 days to family or friends. And one is … horological, I guess? You tell me what to call France’s official letters reminding every 29-year-old of their biological clock.
But government programs rarely have much luck raising fertility rates. The decision to have children is complex and multifaceted, and people are opting out of parenthood for all sorts of economic, social, political, cultural and straight-up existential reasons – far more than I could possibly list in this newsletter. It isn’t often because they just forgot their age, though. And they don’t usually change their minds for 1,000 bucks.
Still, there’s one Ontario city bucking the fertility trend, with a higher percentage of children under 5 than any other large urban centre in the country. Demographers don’t entirely know what it is about the place – definitely the sub-million-dollar detached homes commuting distance from Toronto, probably the new local parks and ample baby-and-parent programs, maybe the whole nineties-childhood vibe. But they’re pretty sure about this: If you want Canadians to have more kids, you should start by moving them to Oshawa.
The Shot
‘We will be taking over the airport.’
Billy Bishop Airport is right next to downtown Toronto.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail
Ontario Premier Doug Ford confirmed that he’ll seize land from the City of Toronto to make room for jets at the downtown Billy Bishop Airport. Read more about the controversial plan here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: A bid to remove Alberta Premier Danielle Smith from the provincial legislature failed to get enough signatures to force a recall vote.
Abroad: Australia will send missiles to the United Arab Emirates and deploy a military surveillance plane to help defend against Iran’s retaliatory strikes on the Gulf.
Trips: More than 4,300 Canadians, permanent residents and their family members fled the Middle East for Canada since March 4.
Tech: Despite previous concerns over security risks, Ottawa will let TikTok continue to operate in Canada.
DIY: Half a dozen tradespeople across the country have come together as the Team Canada of furniture design.
RIP: Wiarton Willie, Ontario’s beloved weather-predicting groundhog, passed away 10 days before the start of spring.