Good morning. After the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark ruling on tariffs, the fight begins over billions in potential refunds – more on that below, along with Mark Carney’s reset in India and Canada’s aid for Cuba. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Liberal MPs say preparation is under way for the next federal election
- Ottawa warns of legislation if OpenAI doesn’t make changes after a chat history raised red flags
- CSIS is acting to prevent possible Iranian proxy attacks on U.S. targets in Canada, former spies say
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FedEx would like a refund for its tariff payouts.Benoit Tessier/Reuters
Tariffs
The refund rush
At the very start of his extremely long State of the Union address Tuesday night, Donald Trump insisted that America is “bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before.” His tariffs are driving a “stunning economic turnaround, the biggest in history,” the U.S. President said. “Countries that were ripping us off for decades are now paying us hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Except that – and you know where this is going – tariffs are not actually paid by foreign countries. It’s the domestic importers that have to cough up those duties, with costs often passed along to U.S. consumers. But now that the Supreme Court has ruled Trump’s emergency-powers tariffs are illegal, corporate America would really like its money back.
On Monday, FedEx sued the federal government in the U.S. Court of International Trade, seeking a full refund on all the struck-down tariffs it paid. The shipping giant joins at least 1,500 companies that filed their own lawsuits in anticipation of the Supreme Court verdict, including Costco, Goodyear, Revlon, Reebok, GoPro and J. Crew. And that’s still just a tiny slice of the businesses that could fight for a refund. According to federal data, more than 300,000 importers paid the unlawful tariffs last year.
Trump is right about one thing, though: The tariffs have been a windfall for the U.S. Treasury, which collected US$133-billion through December from import fees levelled under the emergency-powers law. The duties encompass both Trump’s fentanyl tariffs, slapped on Canada, Mexico and China, as well as his Liberation Day tariffs, imposed on the rest of the world.
Companies did foot the bulk of that hundred-billion-dollar bill themselves, Harvard Business School researchers found last month. But customers covered roughly one-quarter of the burden through higher prices, shaking out to an extra US$1,000 in tax payments for the average U.S. household in 2025. Perhaps that’s why Trump floated the idea of sending US$2,000 rebates to low- and middle-income Americans. However, those cheques – much like the US$500-billion “dream military” program, or the US$2.6-billion “warrior dividends,” or the end of federal income tax, all of which were supposed to come from tariff revenue – have yet to materialize.
At least 1500 importers have sued the U.S. government so far.Carlos Barria/Reuters
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed Trump’s new suite of tariffs would make up for the funds lost to the Supreme Court ruling – although the replacement duties are probably in for legal challenges too. So how, then, will businesses go about collecting their refunds? Great question, and hard to say: The Supreme Court kicked it to the lower courts and the U.S. Court of International Trade to figure out the process and determine who is eligible.
Even Trump was mystified. “They take months and months to write an opinion, and they don’t even discuss that point,” he said last week, in between calling the six justices who voted against him “fools,” “lapdogs” and “unpatriotic.” He told reporters that the refunds would likely be tied up in litigation for the next two years, then immediately raised that timeline to half a decade.
And what about consumers – will they get a cut of the refunds? That’s easier to answer: almost certainly not. It’s extremely hard to prove they paid a portion of the tariffs, regardless of the research showing some of the costs fell on them. Only U.S. importers have the government receipts. Bessent confirmed as much at the Economic Club of Dallas on Friday. “I’ve got a feeling the American people won’t see it,” he said, just after the Supreme Court handed its decision down.
The Shot
‘You can’t talk down to India.’
A woman works in a mustard field outside Guwahati, India, this month.Anupam Nath/The Associated Press
Just 16 months after Canada-India relations hit a low point, Prime Minister Mark Carney meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi tomorrow to work out a major trade deal. Read more about the once-unthinkable reset here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: Parents and students in Nova Scotia rallied outside a local junior high school to support the victims of two boys charged with sexually assaulting their hockey teammates.
Abroad: Former U.S. Treasury secretary Larry Summers will resign from teaching at Harvard after his name appeared hundreds of times in the newly released Epstein files.
Help: Canada is sending $8-million in food aid to Cuba, where the U.S. oil blockade has deepened a humanitarian crisis.
Hurt: Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby is expected to miss four weeks as he recovers from a hit at the Olympic Games.
Do-over: A new boss is taking over at the Louvre four months after the audacious jewel heist.
Dinner: I’m extremely interested in this roast chicken, which our food reporter’s kids really loved.