Good morning. As Donald Trump hardens his threats over Greenland, European leaders consider how to hit back – more on that below, along with Canada’s military models for a U.S. invasion and Valentino’s fashion legacy. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Democracy in the U.S. is uncertain after a year of the Trump stress test
- Doug Ford says he received only a few hours notice from Ottawa on its EV deal with China
- The moving target known as the yellow line represents danger for those in the Gaza Strip
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Greenlandic flags outside a shop in Nuuk yesterday.Sean Gallup/Getty Images
European Union
Raising the stakes
We all assumed it, but now he’s actually said it: Donald Trump tied his push to seize Greenland to his Nobel Peace Prize snub. The U.S. President told Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere over text that he no longer feels the need “to think purely of Peace,” but will instead do “what is good and proper for the United States of America,” which apparently extends to “Complete and Total Control” over the semi-autonomous territory.
Never mind that the government of Norway is not responsible for handing out Nobel Prizes, or that Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, which is an altogether different country. In a brief interview with NBC yesterday, Trump insisted he would “100 per cent” follow through with plans to slap tariffs on eight European nations opposing his Greenland takeover, and issued a terse “no comment” to questions about grabbing the island by force.
European Union leaders have hastily arranged a series of meetings to figure out their response to Trump’s repeated threats. Here are three measures on the table for the beleaguered EU.
Option one: Hit back with tariffs
What that means: Six months ago, the U.S. and EU reached an arrangement at Trump’s golf course in Scotland meant to bring stability to transatlantic trade. The EU accepted 15-per-cent tariffs on most of its exports – not great, but better than the 30 or 50 per cent variously threatened on Truth Social – and agreed to lift its own levies on U.S. goods. Trump heralded the trade pact as “the biggest of all the deals.”
But that deal hasn’t been ratified yet by the European Parliament – a vote is scheduled for early next week – and lawmakers across the political spectrum now say the pact won’t be approved. As the EU was negotiating with the U.S. last summer, it also drew up a long list of retaliatory tariffs in case it failed to strike a deal. Those tariffs were suspended after the golf-course talks, but European officials are considering reviving them.
When it could happen: If the EU doesn’t sign off on the trade pact or extend the suspension, countertariffs on €93-billion of U.S. imports will kick in on Feb. 7. The list includes everything from clothing, cigarettes and motorcycles to soybeans and chewing gum.
A store owner in Copenhagen is doing a brisk business in these red hats.James Brooks/The Associated Press
Option two: Launch the “trade bazooka”
What that means: The official name for this punitive tool is Europe’s “anti-coercion instrument,” but it’s an economic weapon so powerful that people prefer to call it the bazooka instead. Designed to fend off political bullying and economic blackmail from non-EU countries, it seriously curbs access to Europe’s economy, which is collectively the third-largest in the world.
Both France and Germany have suggested using the bazooka against the States. That would allow the bloc to dispense with international treaties and impose a wide array of punishments, including restrictions on American investment or banking in Europe, limits on intellectual property rights or services provided by U.S. tech giants, and sanctions on institutions or individuals (cough: Trump) found to be putting undue pressure on the EU.
When it could happen: That’s hard to say for sure, because Europe’s trade bazooka has never actually been fired before. Pulling the trigger would require an investigation into America’s economic coercion (up to four months), an attempt at talks with the White House (another six months), and the support of at least 15 of the bloc’s 27 members (who have 10 weeks to decide on their vote). So it’s unlikely any action will be taken in 2026.
Option three: Close U.S. military bases in Europe
What that means: The U.S. maintains roughly 30 permanent bases and 20 military sites across the continent, home to at least 67,000 active-duty troops. That network includes the massive complex at Ramstein, Germany – NATO’s largest base in Europe – which is critically important for U.S. operations in Africa and the Middle East. The Aviano Air Base in Italy supported American deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Preventing the U.S. from using those sites would deal a huge blow to its global operations.
When it could happen: Not any time soon, and probably not at all. The EU emphatically doesn’t want to risk losing U.S. forces from the continent. Despite Trump’s many threats – financial, martial, even existential – European leaders have put a lot of time and a lot of effort into keeping NATO alive.
The Shot
‘If you come after Canada, you are going to have the world coming after you.’
Canadian soldiers on patrol in the Yukon last May.Gavin John/The Globe and Mail
The Globe has learned that the Canadian Armed Forces are modelling a U.S. invasion, exploring hit-and-run tactics from the Taliban as a way of fending off a hypothetical assault from the south. To be clear: Senior government officials said it’s unlikely the Trump administration would attack Canada. But the model suggests National Defence isn’t ruling out the threat.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: Homicides fell by about half last year in Toronto and Winnipeg, according to police data, part of a sharp decline in lethal violence across Canada.
Abroad: Spain begins three days of mourning today after a high-speed train crash killed at least 40 people.
Work: Transport Canada said it aims to cut 600 jobs as part of Ottawa’s plan to shrink the federal public service.
Rink: Father-and-son icemakers are among the Canadian technicians maintaining the Olympic-quality ice in Milan.
Fashion: Legendary Italian designer Valentino has died at the age of 93.
Real estate: Housing values may be slumping across the country, but Quebec City and Regina are bucking the trends.