Good morning. The Oilers and Panthers meet tonight for the start of the Stanley Cup final – our predictions for the series below, along with the latest on Canada’s wildfires and the fate of duty-free shops. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Canada’s new border bill would give authorities sweeping security powers and restrict asylum claims
- Trump hikes steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% starting Wednesday
- Connor McDavid, one year after the sting of defeat, is ready to finally win the Stanley Cup
Connor McDavid and Stuart Skinner after an Oilers win last series.Steph Chambers/Getty Images
NHL Playoffs
Is this the Oilers’ year?
Same Stanley Cup match-up, somewhat different geopolitical vibes. The Oilers take the ice at home tonight for their second straight final against the Florida Panthers, and while much of the pressure will feel familiar from last year – Edmonton hasn’t won the Cup since 1990 – there’s a bit of novel weight from the whole trade-war-and-annexation-threats business. Happily, the Oilers can count on the support of not just their die-hard fans but a whole bunch of bandwagoners. Canada is very invested in taking back the Cup after 32 years. No one wants to see it paraded around Mar-a-Lago.
So how will this series play out? I canvassed some of The Globe’s resident hockey experts and Oilers enthusiasts for their predictions. And since it’s only fair that I go on the record, too: Edmonton in five.
Mark Iype, Alberta Bureau Chief:
I was lucky enough to get to Game 4 of the Oilers-Stars series last week, and I watched a team that looked ready – ready to play and ready to win. The Oilers stumbled into the playoffs, looked like goners after the first two games against Los Angeles, but now appear to have a roster that is clicking bottom to top. Combine that with Connor McDavid, who’s focused in a way that I’ve never seen, and a lethal and seemingly healthy Leon Draisaitl, and things are promising for the Cup to return to Canada. This year, home-ice advantage for the Oilers should be the difference between two very good and evenly matched teams.
Oilers in six.
Cathal Kelly, sports columnist:
Two things stand out about this series: Florida has the better team; Edmonton has the best player.
In order for Florida to win, they need to continue applying their “You put one of mine in the penalty box, I put one of yours in the morgue” style of hockey. Since their two most impactful players thus far – Seth Jones and Brad Marchand – didn’t play for them last season, they may be even better at it this time around.
In order for Edmonton to win, Connor McDavid has to take his best-in-game performance and jump it up two or three rungs to Gretzky-in-’85 or Orr-in-’70 levels. If he’s super-human and everyone else can manage semi-heroic, the Oilers have a shot.
Florida in six. (I said a shot.)
Oilers fans at Game 4 against Dallas last week.Perry Nelson/Reuters
Moira Wyton, audience editor:
Cheering for my hometown Oilers from here in Vancouver feels like my heart is about 800 kilometres and two mountain ranges outside of my chest – though celebrating every playoff goal in the family group chat helps shrink the distance.
I’ve never seen the Oilers win the Cup and I’ve watched two heartbreaking losses in the finals, so I’m enjoying this strange sense of confidence that Edmonton will bring it home this year. And yes, that confidence was there even after they started the first round down 0-2 to Los Angeles, because coming back is what they do best. (Though it’s been nice to see the Oilers dominate their series since.) This is a team that’s not playing like an underdog anymore.
Oilers in five, because I’d love them to win at home.
Jana Pruden, Edmonton-based feature writer:
A year ago, give or take seven hockey games, I stood in Edmonton’s “Moss Pit,” watching as Oilers fans mourned a playoff run decades in the making. It was the very narrowest and most heartbreaking of defeats: a one-point loss to Florida in game seven. But through shock and anguish and no small number of tears, fans resoundingly told me: next year.
And, in fact, here we are again, in the exact same place, playing against the exact same team. But this time, fans foresee a different result. As my dentist observed, chatting over my open mouth during an appointment yesterday, “They’ve been here before. They’re ready.” Said the hygienist, “They’re having fun.”
Oilers in seven.
Mark MacKinnon, London-based senior international correspondent:
I’ve been a massive fan of the Oilers since the ’81 season, when they knocked off the Montreal Canadiens in the playoffs. Peter Gzowski wrote a book about that season, The Game of Our Lives, that I read over and over again when I was a kid. So last year, when they had a chance to bring the Cup home after 34 years, I gathered all the expats in London to watch at the Maple Leaf pub here, and it was just crushing when they lost.
This year, with the current political environment, it’ll be an even bigger deal. I was just in Calgary for the weekend, and there were Oilers flags on trucks and Oilers hats and shirts on people’s bodies. It was amazing to see that atmosphere, even in hated Cowtown.
Oilers in five, so they can win it on home ice and don’t have to pay any tariffs bringing the Cup back to Canada.
The Shot
‘None of us have any idea when all of this will end.’
Members of the Royal Canadian Air Force evacuate Jacob Muswagon from Norway House, Man., yesterday.David Lipnowski/The Canadian Press
More than 200 wildfires were burning across the country yesterday – at least half of them out of control – as Manitoba and Saskatchewan ordered evacuations for nearly 30,000 people. Read more here about the latest on Canada’s wildfires.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
Abroad: At least 27 Palestinians were killed and dozens more wounded by Israeli fire as they tried to get food at a distribution site in Gaza – the second such shooting in three days.
At home: Fifteen mayors of towns near the U.S.-Canadian border are calling on Ottawa to provide more support for duty-free shops.
Big tech: Meta has inked a 20-year agreement with an Illinois nuclear plant to fuel its AI ambitions.
Big stripes: Canadian Tire secured court approval for its $30-million deal to buy the intellectual property of Hudson’s Bay.
Big, beautiful bill: Elon Musk – tech billionaire and former White House cost-cutting czar – denounced Donald Trump’s budget package as a “disgusting abomination.”