Good morning. Power struggles loom large as Syria attempts to rebuild – more on that below, along with the latest from the election campaign and the perfect cacio e pepe (according to science). But first:
Today’s headlines
- Trump’s "Liberation Day" trade war uncertainty looms as the U.S. prepares global tariffs
- Ottawa plans to avoid countertariffs that risk Canadian jobs and price hikes
- More Canadians with Iranian backgrounds are being stopped from entering the U.S.
A health care protest in Damascus last month to denounce recent layoffs.Asmaa Waguih/The Globe and Mail
The Globe in Syria
Navigating the post-Assad era
At the end of February, not quite three months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, The Globe’s foreign correspondent Mark MacKinnon returned to Syria for the first time since 2007. He had been blacklisted for writing about a prominent dissident, Michel Kilo; it was meant to be a lifetime ban. But now a new government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, head of the rebel forces that ousted al-Assad, was in charge. Its Ministry of Information gave MacKinnon permission to enter the country. He was welcome to report on Syria’s emergence from a half-century of dictatorship under the al-Assad family and 13 years of brutal civil war.
MacKinnon’s two weeks on the ground proved eventful. Al-Sharaa’s government signed a major peace deal with Syria’s main Kurdish group, saw the south of the country bombarded by Israeli warplanes, and clashed violently on the coast with al-Assad loyalists, leaving as many as 2,000 people dead – more than three-quarters of them civilians.
Since then, al-Shaara has announced a new cabinet to guide Syria through a crucial transition and try to salvage an economy in free fall: 90 per cent of the country lives below the poverty line, and nearly US$1-trillion is needed to rebuild from the war. I spoke with MacKinnon about the very wobbly peace in Syria, the foreign powers competing for influence, and where al-Shaara goes from here.
What was it like driving into Damascus after so long?
It was thrilling to come back to such a beautiful city, and Damascus itself is in decent shape. I mean, the electricity is only on for four hours a day, but it hasn’t been too badly damaged by the war.
Most of the fighting was outside, in places like Douma, which – like much of the country – is absolutely shattered. Just blocks and blocks where there’s not a single building standing. I drove there with my fixer, who had gone to university in Damascus during the war. He was shocked to see the extent of the damage and speak with people who had suffered from the chemical weapons attacks. I think that’s part of what has to happen next in Syria: this reckoning between those who fought and suffered in the civil war and those who didn’t participate. They’re in the situation of not really understanding each other or these two realities.
When you were there, Syria erupted in its worst bloodshed since al-Assad’s fall. How are people feeling about their country’s future?
The first week I was in Syria, I was quite optimistic. People were speaking out on the streets and talking in cafes about forming NGOs and news organizations. The country felt like it was coming out of a long nightmare. Then the second week happened. That sectarian violence speaks to divisions within the country, and people are very worried about what comes next. Before he became president, al-Sharaa was the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the Sunni extremist militia. There are those who are nervous about his vision of Syria.
Security forces in a Damascus market last month.Asmaa Waguih/The Globe and Mail
Al-Sharaa promised an inclusive government. He announced his cabinet on the weekend – how did he do?
His critics warned me several times that al-Sharaa is giving one message inside the country and another one outside. This new government has an Alawite cabinet minister, a Druze cabinet minister, a Christian cabinet minister – it’s very much meant for external consumption. Raed al-Saleh, the leader of the White Helmets rescue organization, is joining, and that will be interpreted as a positive signal by countries like Canada. The new cabinet knows they need to get Western sanctions unwound, and they know the key Western demand is a representative government. How they govern in practice is still to be tested.
Europe and Canada have both moved to lift sanctions, particularly regarding humanitarian aid. But the big question is whether the U.S. will do the same. As long as American sanctions remain on Syria’s banking sector, most NGOs and Western companies will be very nervous about doing business there, because it’s still considered a terrorist state under American law.
The cabinet isn’t al-Sharaa’s only balancing act. He needs to navigate competing pressures from foreign countries.
Throughout the civil war, Syria was a battleground for foreign powers. You had Iran and Russia backing the Assad regime, Turkey and Qatar backing the rebels, and the U.S. defending the Kurds in the east. Before HTS marched to power in Damascus, it was effectively a Turkish protectorate in the northwest. Turkey kept the electricity on, kept the economy flowing. So Turkey views itself, not incorrectly, as having won the Syrian civil war, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has Ottoman-esque ambitions to expand Turkey’s influence in the Middle East. There’s talk of Turkey building five or six military bases in Syria, which would give it clout over what happens in Lebanon and Iraq.
Its main rivals are Israel and Iran, which is maybe the first time they’ve been on something like the same side. Iran arguably gained the most from having Assad in power, because his regime allowed it to move weapons around the Middle East. Iran needs that access back to re-establish its deterrent capacity – its so-called Axis of Resistance involving Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
Israel, meanwhile, doesn’t want Iran back on its northern border or a more powerful Turkey, since Erdogan and his ruling party are linked to Hamas through the Muslim Brotherhood. Israel has expanded its occupation of the Golan Heights and is pushing further into Syria. When I was there, I was kept awake a few nights listening to Israeli jets circling over Damascus and dropping bombs on Syrian military positions close to the capital. So it’s a very volatile situation.
Then there’s Russia, which first backed al-Assad and now provides asylum. What does Vladimir Putin do with him?
The Syrians I met with want some form of justice. They want to see al-Assad on trial. They want to see him executed, frankly. But I don’t think there’s any circumstance under which Putin gives him up – he wants to send the message that Russia doesn’t desert its allies.
I think Putin’s preference is to make a show of protecting al-Assad while making a deal so Russia can retain its military bases in Syria. Al-Sharaa’s government needs money and needs help rebuilding. It seems inclined to let the Russians stay, which would be remarkable, given that for 10 years, Russia was dropping bombs on HTS and al-Sharaa’s forces. But in the Middle East, yesterday’s enemies can be tomorrow’s friends.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Election 2025
‘It’s just harder now for people to make ends meet.’
A patriotic display in Osoyoos, B.C., just beyond the U.S. border.Aaron Hemens/The Globe and Mail
In the border town of Osoyoos, B.C., some business owners are considering closing shop as the U.S. trade war heats up – and no one can agree which candidate will best protect their interests. Meanwhile, on the trail yesterday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pledged to go ahead with energy reforms that the oil and gas sector has called for, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said that Canada’s health care system isn’t for sale. In Winnipeg, Liberal Leader Mark Carney kept his comments brief after the resignation of Paul Chiang, who called for his Conservative opponent to be turned over to the Chinese consulate. You can catch up here on Day 10 of the election campaign.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: Pocketbook issues were set to dominate the 2025 election campaign. Then came a trade war. These 10 charts show how the economic ground has shifted.
Abroad: U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi directed prosecutors to seek the death penalty against Luigi Mangione, who is accused of murdering UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.
Off the ballot: As fellow far-right leaders rallied around her, France’s Marine Le Pen called her embezzlement conviction a “nuclear bomb.”
On the menu: If Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” makes you want to face-plant into the nearest bowl of carbs, good news – eight physicists just perfected the recipe for cacio e pepe.