Good morning. I’m Abigale Subdhan, an audience editor at The Globe and Mail. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has confirmed he will launch a snap provincial election campaign this week, which would send voters to the polls on Feb. 27. More on what we know so far, plus a peek at a thriving punk scene in Saint John and what else to expect this week. But first:
Today’s headlines
- The Israel-Hamas ceasefire is under strain as Trump proposes emptying Gaza of Palestinians
- The White House says Colombia agrees to take deported migrants after Trump’s tariff showdown
- Holocaust survivors share the lessons that must never be forgotten
- Kansas City will go up against Philadelphia in a quest for their third straight Super Bowl title
Premier Doug Ford has confirmed his plans to call a snap election on Wednesday.Chris Young/The Canadian Press
Ontario politics
Doug Ford confirms early election call
There has been speculation for months that Ford was preparing to call an early election. Last week, while speaking to reporters at an event in Brampton, Ont., he definitively ended the speculation and said he was taking the province to the polls – just 2½ years after he won a majority in 2022.
Queen’s Park reporter Jeff Grey took the time to answer our question about what Ontarians can expect with a four-week election cycle. Here’s what he had to say.
How did we get here?
There have been many months of this kind of speculation – and it was thought it would be in the spring. Turns out, it’s going to be in the depths of cold February.
More recently, with the election of Donald Trump and the announcement of potential 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian goods, which will hit Ontario and its manufacturing industry extremely hard, the Premier – who has emerged as the de facto spokesman for Canada in dealing with the threat from Washington – has said he needs a new mandate from Ontario voters to take on four more years of Trump. It had become the question everyone asked every time he poked his face in front of the microphone, and he finally confirmed that Ontario will go to the polls.
The campaign will start on Wednesday, Jan. 29, and we’ll vote on Thursday, Feb. 27.
Why is Doug Ford calling an election right now?
Before we got into this Trump tariff crisis, the strategies around calling an early election revolved around a desire to get ahead of any future federal election, and there are a couple reasons why Ford would want to do that. One, Ontario voters historically vote for the other party. So if there is an election at Queen’s Park, Ontarians tend to vote for whoever’s not in power in Ottawa – and vice versa. So the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario likely wanted to get ahead of that dynamic, possibly.
They were also concerned that a new Conservative government in Ottawa, as all polls suggest we’re going to have, will cut spending and cut the money that is sent to provinces – and that would complicate Doug Ford’s life, because he doesn’t want to cut spending. There is also the idea that he needs to get ahead of what could be a souring economy.
What is the opposition saying about the move?
The Premier’s main opponents – Official Opposition NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie – have both charged that an early election is unnecessary. They say that instead of going out on the campaign trail, Ford should recall the legislature, now on an extended winter break, and focus on dealing with Trump’s threat.
Interestingly, though, nobody seems ready. Nobody has candidates nominated in all 124 ridings yet, not even the governing party. As of last week, the PCs have somewhere in the range of 88 candidates nominated; the Liberals have around 70, and the NDP have somewhere just shy of 40 – and those numbers are changing all the time.
The parties have also been scrambling to vet candidates, get nomination meetings going in order to get a full slate ready and raise money. Neither Stiles nor Crombie has faced a general election like this as leader, so this will be a new experience for both of them.
What could the election campaign look like?
One thing that will be weird about this election campaign is that Ford will spend three, four days in Washington talking to governors, senators, representatives and possibly the Trump administration to either get tariffs reversed or convince Trump to not tariff us at all. He’ll be tapping into that “Captain Canada” role he’s been in during the campaign, which is unusual.
How do you think the campaign cycle will affect vulnerable Ontario workers?
It’s impossible to game out what’s going to happen. If tariffs are announced on Feb. 1, how long does it take for companies to say, for example, we are shutting our factory in Ontario and opening one in Illinois? How fast do those kinds of adjustments happen? How many job losses happen right away? No one really knows.
The other complicated thing is if the provincial government is going to spend a ton of money to help Ontario workers and businesses, they would normally need the legislature to approve the ask. But the legislature has been dissolved and can’t meet until elections are over – which is a whole month or more, until Feb. 27.
What could be other major hot topics in this election?
- Health care: I imagine the opposition will want to talk about the Premier’s record on health care, pointing out the rural emergency rooms that have closed and his promise in 2018 to end hallway health care that hasn’t been delivered on.
- Greenbelt: There is still an RCMP investigation into Ford’s aborted move to allow developers to build housing on parts of the protected Greenbelt – and opposition leaders have accused him of trying to win another four-year election before any charges emerge from the investigation.
- Supervised drug-use sites: These sites have also been a point of contention, along with the rise of homelessness and the opioid epidemic. Many municipal politicians have been talking about the challenges they’re facing and pressing the government to do more on that.
The Shot
‘The perfect formula for a thriving punk scene’
The mosh pit at a Piercing Damage show at Haven Music Hall in Saint John, N.B.Chris Donovan/The Globe and Mail
Saint John has a thriving punk scene built in the shadow of industry and powered by New Brunswick’s class struggles. Punk lovers have found a new haven inside Haven Music Hall, a one-year-old establishment that sits less than two kilometres from Canada’s largest oil refinery. Read more here about the working-class roots behind the city’s unique sound.
The Wrap
What we’re following this week
Today is the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp.
Tuesday: A long-awaited report will be released from the public inquiry into foreign interference in Canadian elections.
Wednesday: Happy Lunar New Year! The Bank of Canada will have an interest rate announcement and monetary policy report. It is also the National Day of Remembrance of the Quebec City Mosque Attack and Action Against Islamophobia.
Thursday: Sum 41’s final concert will take place at Toronto’s Scotiabank Arena. Lead singer Deryck Whibley says he’s prepared to go to court over allegations against his former manager.
Friday: Large social media platforms will participate in a stress test by the European Commission to see if they have done enough to counter disinformation.
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article incorrectly said the punk bar Haven Music Hall is in New Brunswick's capital. It is in Saint John, not Fredericton. This version has been updated.