Good morning. We’re sussing out just how worried to be about the spread of bird flu – more on that below, along with a high-speed rail line between Toronto and Quebec City and a high-stakes hockey final between Canada and the U.S. But first:
Today’s headlines
- The Liberal Party questions leadership candidate Ruby Dhalla over possible interference from India
- Trump calls Zelensky ‘a dictator,’ marking a new low for the fragile U.S.-Ukraine relationship
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith reorganizes staff after allegations of government interference in the provincial health agency
Chickens at a poultry farm in Abbotsford, B.C.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Bird flu
The cattle in the coal mine
There’s no shortage of potential disasters clamouring for your attention. A massive new study found that the world’s glaciers are melting faster than ever recorded. Donald Trump just posted that Ukraine’s security is not the U.S.’s problem, because he’s got “a big, beautiful Ocean as separation” from the war. Everyone suddenly wants to know if it’s safe to get on an airplane. Also: There’s a distinct possibility that, seven years from now, an asteroid will smash into Earth.
But today – deep breath – it’s time to talk about bird flu. Over the past year, a highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza has decimated poultry farms across North America and spilled over to hundreds of dairy-cow herds in the States. Dozens of U.S. farm workers came down with bird flu in 2024, and there are a few cases where it isn’t clear how people caught the virus – including the 13-year-old girl in B.C. who spent weeks in critical condition. Last Thursday, the CDC identified three asymptomatic infections in dairy veterinarians, suggesting there might be many more human cases than the official count. Ottawa is hustling to get ahead of the problem: Yesterday, the Public Health Agency of Canada said it had purchased 500,000 doses of a bird flu vaccine, which will be first distributed to farm workers and others at high risk of exposure.
Let’s start with the good news: There is no evidence that bird flu is spreading through human-to-human contact. None of the family members of the B.C. teenager, for example, caught the virus themselves. Scientists have also known about this kind of avian influenza (H5N1) since 1997, and have plenty of experience with its vaccine. In fact, when it comes to viruses that could tip into the next pandemic, “we know more about vaccinating against H5 than we do almost anything else,” Richard Webby, an influenza expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, told The Globe.
The bad news, though, is this current batch of H5 is “the nastiest that we have seen,” Webby said. It’s killed more than 300 million birds around the world since 2021; in the U.S., at least 32 million domestic poultry were infected or culled this year alone. That helps explain why American egg prices hit a 45-year high in January, and why Waffle House just tacked on a 50-cent surcharge for every order of egg. (In Canada, smaller commercial farms mitigate the impact of outbreaks and the subsequent sticker shock.)
H5N1 under the microscope.The Associated Press
And it’s now obvious that this particular flu isn’t just for the birds. It’s been detected in pigs, horses, mice, house cats, and about 70 other mammalian species. Tigers and sea lions and polar bears have all died from the virus, which also wiped out 18,000 elephant seal pups. Last spring, bird flu was detected for the first time in cattle, something that came as a surprise to influenza experts. “You pick up a textbook of virology and look at the hosts that [H5N1] can infect – cows are not on that list,” Webby told The Globe.
That means the virus has undergone some key mutations in order to replicate so well among so many cattle herds. Luckily, it hasn’t yet adapted to be more contagious to us. So far, avian influenza locks on to receptors deep in the lungs, making it harder to catch than seasonal flu viruses that target our upper respiratory tract. You need to be exposed to a whole bunch of the virus to be infected, which is why many cases have involved dairy workers milking the udders of afflicted cows.
But that may change quickly. According to a recent study from scientists at Scripps Research, just a single modification in the protein found on the surface of the H5N1 virus could allow for much easier transmission among humans. The more bird flu spreads, the more opportunities it has to mutate. Seasonal flu is soaring right now in North America, and if these two kinds of influenza infect the same cow – or person – genetic material could also shuffle around to make a bird flu that’s far more infectious.
It all underscores the importance of surveillance and preparation, particularly in the U.S., home to most of the human cases and infected poultry and cows. So this might not be the best time for Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to go on a firing rampage. Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services – led by noted vaccine skeptic and raw-milk enthusiast Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – announced plans to fire 5,200 employees across its agencies, including at the National Institutes of Health, the Food and Drug Administration, and the CDC. That same day, the U.S. Department of Agriculture fired several people working on bird flu in a move to “optimize its work force,” then tried mightily to hire them back this week.
Ultimately, it’s still too soon for a full-blown bird flu panic. But we know that a virus doesn’t respect borders – and that Trump’s approach to public health doesn’t inspire much confidence.
The Shot
Toronto to Montreal in three hours flat?
Justin Trudeau in Montreal yesterday.ANDREJ IVANOV/AFP/Getty Images
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is calling it the largest infrastructure project in Canadian history: Alto, a 300-kilometre-per-hour rail line between Quebec City and Toronto. It might not happen any time soon (the five-year development phase will focus on planning, not construction) and it might not survive the coming federal election (Conservative MP and transport critic Philip Lawrence dismissed the announcement as a “$5-billion photo-op”). But you can read more about Alto’s high-speed promise here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: Pat King, an organizer of the convoy protest that overwhelmed downtown Ottawa in 2022, was sentenced to three months of house arrest yesterday – not the 10 years that the Crown had wanted.
Abroad: The Vatican said that Pope Francis, battling double pneumonia, was showing slight improvement and proved well enough to receive a hospital visit from Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
On the tube: As part of a multimillion-dollar U.S. ad campaign, the Ontario government sponsored Sean Hannity’s prime-time interview with Donald Trump and Elon Musk on Fox News this week.
On the ice: Canada plays the U.S. tonight in the 4 Nations Face-Off final, and fans are waiting to see if they’ll once again fight three times in the first nine seconds.
Editor’s note: (Feb. 20, 2025): This newsletter has been corrected to reflect the latest reported odds of an asteroid striking Earth.