Good morning. The international scope of the war in Iran is slowly taking shape – more on that below, along with AI at the border and the official start of the midterms. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Prime Minister Mark Carney says the conflict in the Middle East represents a failure of world order as Ottawa asks Oman to use its airspace to evacuate Canadians if necessary
- The B.C. chief coroner said his office will hold an inquest into the mass school shooting in Tumbler Ridge
- A change to police licence plate searches was rebuffed by Ontario years before an alleged database breach
A plume of smoke rises after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran, on Tuesday.ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images
Analysis
A closer look at the unpredictability of war
Hi, I’m David Shribman, I write U.S. political analysis for The Globe and Mail and am the executive editor emeritus of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Robert E. Lee, the top Confederate general in the American Civil War, is remembered for having said that “it is well that war is so terrible – otherwise we would grow too fond of it.”
The new Iran war is terrible, and no one is fond of it – though those determined to deny Iran the opening to create a nuclear-weapons force and to topple the theocracy that has ruled the country since the 1979 Islamic Revolution are fond of the goals.
It is the tension between the perils and cost of war on one hand and the goals of this war (not particularly well-defined, nor particularly widely shared) on the other that has become the leitmotif of recent days.
The scope beyond Iran
Like all military conflicts – especially the beginnings of armed combat – there is an enormous amount of confusion and many moving parts that constitute the fog of war. And in the last 24 hours some features of the Iran war have begun to be clarified, while others have become even more muddled.
This may be regarded as the Iran war, but its boundaries are far beyond the frontiers of the country that created an earlier crisis with the 444-day drama of the American hostage crisis in 1979. This is the same country that has unsettled the Middle East for decades. That has used client terrorist groups to create chaos across the region, and that sent an assassination team in a foiled plot to kill Canadian human-rights activist Irwin Cotler.
The combat has reached a dozen countries beyond Iran, with embassies closing, air traffic limited if not postponed indefinitely and oil transport disrupted. The great fear from the beginning has been the development of a regional war. One of the failures of this operation is that it already has spawned a regional war.
The economic impact of the fighting is spreading, perhaps exponentially. Already oil prices globally and gasoline prices in North America are spiking; rises of US 10 cents or more already are common. Worried eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of all oil is conveyed. President Donald Trump may believe that a flood of oil from Venezuela, where he toppled the president earlier this winter, may provide a new spurt of oil, but that will be limited – and late.
Unforeseeable outlook
Fears are growing that the conflict, already not contained geographically, may not be contained in time.
Trump is talking about a war that could last four or more weeks. The timeline of wars is famously unpredictable.
When the First World War began in the summer of 1914, the world expected it to be over swiftly, with the troops home by Christmas. Four Christmases, almost five, would pass before the guns would be stilled. Millions died, four empires toppled, new global arrangements emerged. No one knows how long the fighting will continue in this conflict.
Mohammad Hussein Aboud, 64, sits yesterday with his wife, Hanan Merck and their 8 month old son, Ahmad, in a college in Beirut that has been turned into a shelter.Oliver Marsden/The Globe and Mail
American and Israeli forces are fighting together visibly for the first time. The effect of that on antisemitism, which has spiked in North America since the Israeli response to the Hamas attack in October, 2023, is another unknown, especially if U.S. combat deaths grow to high levels and the war is portrayed as being undertaken for the benefit of Israel.
What might come next for the U.S.
Three important domestic factors in the United Sates also produce important unknowns.
One is the effect of this war on the MAGA revolution, which grew in part because of Trump’s vows not to engage overseas, nor to undertake nation-building. He is doing both, in bold defiance of his “America First” theme. Already there is angry defection from his coalition. This is dangerous for Trump and for Republicans as the November midterm congressional elections approach.
Second is the effect on American support for Israel. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s remarks that the U.S. undertook these strikes because it expected Israel to attack Iran has the potential of undermining support for Israel on Capitol Hill. The U.S. is accustomed to leading Israel, not following it, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has few American backers.
A third is the Democrats’ response to this war. They are questioning the motives and conduct of the conflict and perhaps as soon as Wednesday, Democrats in both the House of Representatives and in the Senate will have tried to curtail the President’s power to wage it. They very likely will not succeed, as presidents routinely have ignored Constitutional restraints on the executive’s war-making powers. In this matter, though not on so many others, Trump is walking on a path blazed by his predecessors.
The Shot
‘Maybe there is an opportunity to reconnect with a younger audience.’
Shoppers pass a Roots store at the Eaton Centre in Toronto yesterday.Sammy Kogan/The Globe and Mail
The iconic clothing and accessory brand Roots has cultivated an image deeply tied to Canadiana over its 53-year history. The company announced a strategic review, saying that its board will be looking at a range of options for the future that could include putting it up for sale.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: The Immigration Department is experimenting with an AI tool to advise newcomers where to settle in Canada.
Abroad: The Texas primaries kick off the midterm elections to decide which party controls the U.S. Congress during Trump’s last two years in office.
Comment: The U.S. ambassador to Canada has asked The Globe and Mail to apologize for a column that he said mocked the “intelligence, education, and character” of the U.S. men’s Olympic hockey team players who attended the State of the Union address.
No comment: Carney said he won’t comment on the role the Indian government is alleged to have played in the assassination of Canadian Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
New comment: Researchers say that a near-complete genetic sequence promises a new window into the beloved “camp robber” Canada jay.