Good morning. Despite Mark Carney’s series of gaffes along the campaign trail, Quebec seems to be willing to give the Liberal Leader a chance. More on that below, along with telecom’s new tune on infrastructure, and the revitalization of an Inuit tradition.
Today’s headlines
- An election-interference watchdog has uncovered Beijing efforts to influence Chinese Canadians on Liberal Leader Mark Carney.
- China vows to ’fight to the end,’ calls Donald Trump’s bluff on tariffs
- Trump doubles down on tariffs despite warnings on Wall Street
Liberal leader Mark Carney during a campaign event on April 4, 2025 in Montreal.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Election 2025
Why is a red wave washing over la belle province?
Hi, I’m Eric Andrew-Gee, The Globe’s Quebec correspondent, based in Montreal.
I knew something was changing in Quebec when I saw a Canadian flag hanging from a balcony in my neighbourhood.
The eastern part of the Plateau, where I live, is historically a working-class francophone stronghold of the independence movement. Gilles Duceppe, the long-time leader of the Bloc Québécois, was the local MP for more than two decades. Now the area is heavily populated by immigrants from France, with some of the best baguettes this side of Paris. All in all, not a traditional hotbed of Canadian nationalism.
Donald Trump’s trade war and threats of annexation have deeply shaken the province, though. The U.S. President’s 25-per-cent tariff on aluminum has rattled a key Quebec industry, while talk of making Canada the 51st state has repelled even those who have previously supported separatism.
As I wrote for The Globe in March, Quebec has experienced a surge in identification with the Rest of Canada and draped itself, temporarily at least, in the Maple Leaf. Support for separation is near an all-time low, and Quebeckers today are more likely to tell pollsters they are proud to be Canadian than Albertans are, a dramatic reversal even from last summer.
That sea change has defined the federal election campaign in Quebec.
Even more voters in the province say Trump is their defining ballot-box issue than in the rest of the country. And like in Ontario, B.C. and Atlantic Canada, the Trump effect has translated into huge polling gains for the Liberals in Quebec.
Since Justin Trudeau’s announcement in January that he would step down as prime minister, and Mark Carney’s election as Liberal Leader in March, the party has gone from third place to a commanding first in la belle province.
Voters here have decided that Carney’s experience as a central banker and financier make him better suited to managing the continuing economic crisis than Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, a career politician whose affect and policies remind some Canadians uncomfortably of the glowering occupant of the White House.
The Bloc, too, has been undercut by the shift in focus to Canada-U.S. relations.
The sovereigntist party’s traditional emphasis on defending Quebec interests against the indifference and hostility of the federal government has failed to gain traction in a campaign where Quebeckers see the menace coming from Washington rather than Ottawa.
That has led Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet to plead fruitlessly for a “normal” race, as I described in a story last week – his party is hovering around 20 per cent in opinion polls, while the Liberals reach toward 50 per cent.
All of this despite the fact that Carney has run a decidedly uninspired campaign in Quebec so far.
His shaky French became evident during the Liberal leadership contest and has continued to hobble him on the stump; francophone reporters sometimes wonder whether he has fully understood their questions during press conferences.
Those linguistic shortcomings, and a lifetime spent in Edmonton, Boston, New York, Ottawa and London – just about everywhere in the Atlantic Triangle except for Quebec – have led to a series of gaffes while campaigning in Quebec.
The 1989 Polytechnique massacre was a defining moment for many Quebeckers. So, it was a major flub when Carney recently misidentified the name of the school and the name of a survivor, who is also a Liberal candidate, during a campaign speech.
He turned down an invitation to a second French-language debate on the influential TVA network, the only party leader to do so, scuttling the event.
One of his party’s flagship policies on homebuilding was awkwardly translated into French, prompting online mockery.
As I outlined in another piece in late March – and to the enormous frustration of his opponents – none of it has really mattered for the Liberals.
Quebeckers seem ready to cut Carney an unusual amount of slack for his halting French and shallow knowledge of the province. Even some Bloc voters are planning to cast their ballot for the traditional red-and-white federalist adversary this time around.
The Liberals may have had Quebec in the bag the moment a Canadian flag appeared on that balcony in the Plateau.
More from the campaign trail today:
- Carney promised support for retirees who are seeing their savings take a hit amid market instability, while Poilievre criticized Trump for creating chaos in the stock market.
- Catch up: Here what else happened on Day 17 of the campaign
The Shot
‘It’s Inuit societal values in action.’
Julien Aglukark has been joining his mother at the dog yard since he was 6 and is slowly learning by watching. Iqaluit, Dec. 4, 2024.Lisa Milosavljevic/The Globe and Mail
Dog teams were once crucial to survival in the North, but have become a rarity. Now, Inuit are reviving a tradition decades after a tragic cull.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: Canada’s three largest telecoms have long maintained how crucial it is to own their own infrastructure. What changed?
Abroad: An Israeli bomb hit next to a charity kitchen where Palestinians crowded as food supplies dwindle under Israel’s month-long blockade in Gaza, hospital officials said.
No longer abroad: B.C. is ending a program that was sending cancer patients to the U.S. for radiation therapy, saying wait times at home have improved.
Secret Canada: We’re processing new FOIs – and shifting our methodology.
Not a secret: In praise of the thali, the sectional plate of carefully crafted flavours that’s about so much more than food.