Nova Scotia election gains by Progressive Conservatives a rare ruling party victory

Open this photo in gallery:

The blue tide that swept across Nova Scotia as Progressive Conservative Premier Tim Houston won a majority government while upping his party’s seat count marked a rarity among recent elections where incumbents have not faired particularly well.

Aided in part by a Liberal collapse that catapulted the New Democrats into the role of Official Opposition, the PCs won 43 of 55 seats in the legislature in Tuesday’s election. The NDP scored nine seats and the Liberals were reduced to two – just enough to remain a registered political party under the Nova Scotia Elections Act. One Independent was re-elected.

While the landslide victory for the returning PCs is an unusual position for a ruling provincial party of late, it came as no surprise to anyone watching the polls in the days leading up the snap election.

“This was really an anomaly,” said Acadia University political science professor Alex Marland, referring to recent election results in other provinces, the United States and Britain where the voting public opted for change. “We don’t have the same sense of anger in throwing out the incumbents.”

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston’s daring political gamble pays off

Such sentiment was clearly expressed in neighbouring New Brunswick last month when PC incumbent Blaine Higgs was ousted in favour of the Liberals and Leader Susan Holt, who won a robust majority. Results were less dramatic in British Columbia and Saskatchewan with incumbents David Eby of the NDP and the Saskatchewan Party’s Scott Moe clinching victory, albeit with greatly reduced majorities.

Within this unfriendly era for incumbents, Mr. Houston, a 54-year-old chartered accountant, has not only been handily re-elected but increased the PCs’ number of seats by eight. The NDP gained three seats while the Liberals lost 12.

The PCs under Mr. Houston have veered more toward the political centre, unlike conservative brands under leaders such as Mr. Higgs, Conservative Party of Canada Leader Pierre Poilievre and the United Conservative Party of Alberta under Danielle Smith.

“He’s not afraid to dip into the political left which is one of the reasons why they got as many votes as they did,” Dr. Marland said.

The last time the PCs claimed such a staggering victory was in 1984 when John Buchanan led the party to win 42 of the legislature’s 52 seats – his third of four consecutive wins.

The PCs also flipped ridings in the traditionally red territory of Halifax Regional Municipality, scooping up two seats in Bedford.

During the campaign, Mr. Houston faced criticism from Liberal Party Leader Zach Churchill and NDP Leader Claudia Chender, both of whom accused him of ignoring the first law his government passed in 2021, a fixed-election date in July, 2025, and calling the election early.

But it was a smart call, said Dalhousie University political science professor Lori Turnbull. While Mr. Houston had reasoned that it was to position Nova Scotians in the best possible way to negotiate with the federal government, Dr. Turnbull said it’s clear that it was simply to take advantage of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity.

“That stuff about tougher negotiation – that’s all an excuse.”

The results have well positioned the New Democrats and Ms. Chender, who focused her campaign on housing and affordability. The 48-year-old lawyer was widely considered a strong performer during the televised debates. In the last legislature session, she and her almost-all-women caucus were well-prepared and serious, in contrast to the slate of Liberal men who appeared to be “just kind of goofing around,” Dr. Marland said.

“If they bring that same level of energy, I think the PCs are going to really have their lunch handed to them,” said Dr. Marland, adding that he expects the gender dynamics to be fascinating. “This seems like a very well organized, structured and determined Opposition.”

Historically, the Liberals are one of the strong governing parties in Nova Scotia. The pendulum tends to swing between the PCs and the Liberals, with an exception once between 2009 and 2013 when the NDP formed government under Darrell Dexter.

Mr. Churchill narrowly lost his seat in Yarmouth by 14 votes, though the popular vote between both the Liberals and the NDP was virtually even.

In recent months, the Liberals have faced mounting pressure on the province’s South Shore, where fishing communities remain angry about what they say is the federal Liberals’ failure to get Fisheries and Oceans Canada to crack down on illegal lobster fishing.

“The party has been in a strained state for a while now,” Dr. Turnbull said. “I think, if anything, this will give the opportunity for the party to rebuild, find the right leader, figure out what message they want to push.”