Voters enter an advance voting location in the riding of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Aug. 27.Nick Iwanyshyn/The Canadian Press
Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives held on to two seats in Thursday’s Ontario by-elections while the NDP retained a third, results that leave the status quo in the provincial legislature unchanged.
The races happened at a critical time in Canada-U.S. relations and after the Ontario Premier engaged in a war of words with President Donald Trump. The contests were seen as the first political test for Mr. Ford’s majority government since trade talks between Canada and the U.S. collapsed last month.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals swept three federal by-elections across the country, including winning a Quebec seat that was previously Conservative.
Thursday’s results were a blow the Ontario Liberals, who are set to name a new leader on Nov. 21.
Ontario’s by-elections were held in York-Simcoe, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and Scarborough Southwest.
Going into the vote, Mr. Ford’s Progressive Conservatives held the two seats in York and Hamilton, which were vacated when former cabinet ministers Caroline Mulroney and Neil Lumsden resigned.
The Scarborough seat in Toronto’s east end was previously held by Doly Begum, who resigned her position as NDP deputy leader to run for the federal Liberals.
‘Trump bump’ could help Ford in Ontario by-elections, observers say
In Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, PC candidate Jeff Beattie won with about 39 per cent of the vote. The NDP’s Monique Taylor came in second with almost 33 per cent, and Liberal Heino Doessing was in third with 23 per cent.
In York-Simcoe, PC candidate Susan Lahey won almost 50 per cent of the vote, with Liberal Naomi Davison in second at 39 per cent, and the NDP candidate a distant third with 4 per cent. The Liberals did significantly better than they did in the 2025 vote, when they won only 24 per cent.
In Scarborough Southwest, the NDP held onto its seat, with candidate Fatima Shaban garnering about 40 per cent of the vote - well ahead of Liberal Ahsanul Hafiz at about 30 per cent and PC candidate Noor Tarun at 23 per cent.
Speaking alongside Mr. Beattie outside his victory party in Hamilton, Mr. Ford congratulated his candidate and thanked the opposition parties for their campaigns.
The Premier vowed to keep up his fight against Mr. Trump’s tariffs: “The enemy isn’t each and every one of us, all of us together. The enemy is Donald Trump. And we’re going to fight against Donald Trump.”
The victory in Scarborough was a rare bit of good news for NDP Leader Marit Stiles, after the loss of her deputy leader, which sparked the by-election race, and a series of polls that have shown her party behind Ontario’s leaderless Liberals.
She told cheering organizers in Scarborough that Thursday’s victory belonged to them – and that the results showed that her party was the one that could eventually defeat Mr. Ford.
“You delivered a message today to Doug Ford,” Ms. Stiles said, flanked by her candidate and several of her MPPs. “You said, ‘You better watch your back, because we are coming for you.’”
Mr. Ford’s popularity took a hit earlier this spring after a series of controversies, including his government’s purchase of a $28.9-million private jet and a hotel-expenses scandal that resulted in the resignation of one of his cabinet ministers. But the Premier has since rebounded in some polls amid a public spat with Mr. Trump, who has personally attacked the Premier. Last week, Mr. Ford told Mr. Trump to “kiss my ass” and called him a loser.
The PCs used the conflict with the U.S. President as part of their campaign materials, saying the Premier is the only one who can “stand up to Trump.” But political opponents accused Mr. Ford of deflecting from his own government’s record, including on health care and education.
Political observers expected the PCs to hold rural York-Simcoe, north of Toronto, long a Conservative stronghold. But the Hamilton seat was seen as being in play for the opposition parties. NDP candidate Ms. Taylor was a former long-time MPP from a neighbouring area, and the Liberals were hoping to make inroads with Mr. Doessing, who placed second in the 2025 provincial election.
The Scarborough seat was seen as the most unpredictable. Both Ms. Stiles and Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser watched the by-election results roll in at candidate events in Scarborough.
The NDP saw the seat, which was won three times by Ms. Begum, as a must-win for candidate Ms. Shaban. But the Liberals were looking to take it back, after a nomination battle in which former Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith accused the party of wrongdoing after he narrowly lost to candidate Mr. Hafiz.
The Ontario PC Party, meanwhile, barred journalists from attending their candidates’ by-election parties, which are traditionally open to media.
Voter turnout for the races was low: 29 per cent in Hamilton-Stoney Creek, 26.5 per cent in Scarborough and 21 per cent in York-Simcoe, according to Elections Ontario.