Ontario election kicks off with tariffs – but will it end up being about something else?

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The symbolism couldn’t have been more clear: Standing at the foot of the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ont., Doug Ford launched his early re-election bid across the Detroit River from the United States, billing himself as the only person who can stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of punishing tariffs.

The leader of the province’s governing Progressive Conservatives argued he needs a “strong mandate” from the public for the next four years, even though his government had secured a majority until June, 2026, to take on Mr. Trump. His team even revealed a new classic-rock campaign song, featuring the chorus: “Who’s going to fight for you?”

But less than a week later, Canada was granted a temporary 30-day reprieve from Mr. Trump’s pledge to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian goods. And a hot-mic moment, in which Mr. Ford unwittingly revealed on camera that he had wanted Mr. Trump to win the U.S. presidency, has the opposition parties hoping for an opening to make the Feb. 27 election a referendum not on Mr. Trump, but on Mr. Ford himself.

With his early election gambit, Mr. Ford has focused on the question of who can best fight for Ontario in the face of a trade war with the United States. The opposition parties, however, believe they can turn the tables on Mr. Ford and switch to other issues, namely health care, affordability, education – and Mr. Ford’s own ethics.

Heading into the campaign Mr. Ford promised to spend “tens of billions” to cushion the economic blow of tariffs, with his main rivals, NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, also pledging significant support even as they attempted to steer public attention toward other campaign issues.

The question now is: Will Ontario’s election end up being about tariffs, or something else?

“It’s pretty clear that Doug Ford is more interested in positioning himself as someone who can lead Ontario against Donald Trump than to focus on his track record,” pollster Nik Nanos said in an interview.

Mr. Nanos said the tariff threat was such an overarching issue that it would be easy for the PC Leader to pivot back to Mr. Trump, and to make protecting Ontario from the U.S. President into the main ballot issue.

Health care, tax cuts and Highway 401 tunnel focus of Ontario election campaign trail

“Donald Trump and the potential impact of a Trump presidency on Ontario and the Ontario economy is a massive fixation and it’s an issue that underpins everything,” he said.

Prior to the snap election campaign, the PCs already held a sizable majority, with 79 out of 124 seats. The NDP had 28, the Liberals held nine and the Green Party had two.

Mr. Ford and his party enjoyed a significant polling lead long before he called the election and that support has followed him into the campaign, leaving him on track to potentially increase his majority if that support holds.

Mr. Ford – who remains, as Ontario Premier, the head of the Council of the Federation made up of Canada’s premiers – has leaned into the tariff issue as he blurred the lines between Premier and campaigning party leader. He has made numerous appearances on American news networks and used his council position to speak publicly on behalf of the premiers.

He is set to travel to Washington next week for his own meetings, and with other premiers, as he pitches strong trade and resource ties with the U.S., a trip that he says his party will pay for even as he advocates for the province as its Premier.

It is also unclear what impact Mr. Ford’s hot-mic comments – in which he was caught on camera this week saying he was “100-per-cent” happy when Mr. Trump won the White House just last November but felt like he’d later been stabbed – would have on the campaign.

While Mr. Ford had long been a vocal Trump supporter, he has not expressed public admiration for him in recent years and in the past few weeks, has railed against the President. Mr. Ford also announced the end of a $100-million provincial contract with Starlink, the satellite internet provider owned by Trump ally Elon Musk, but backed off the cancellation once the tariffs were paused.

Both main opposition parties made quick use of the Trump comments, arguing they undermine his justification for the campaign. They also routinely invoke what they call Mr. Ford’s “shady deals,” including a now-cancelled plan to carve out parts of the protected Greenbelt for development. Mr. Ford’s media team also began limiting questions after Mr. Ford was repeatedly asked about the Trump comments.

Both opposition leaders have also stressed policies that respond to what they say are Mr. Ford’s failures in health care, education and the declining number of housing starts.

Ms. Crombie, the former mayor of Mississauga who became Liberal Leader in December, 2023, launched her campaign in a baseball cap with the slogan “Real Leaders Fix Healthcare” and has focused on a system that the Ontario Medical Association warns will leave 4.4 million people without a family doctor by next year. She has pledged both to attract 3,100 more doctors and scrap Mr. Ford’s expansion of private surgical clinics. She has also called for more public-transit security and a “phased-in” approach to rent control.

Dan Moulton, an Ontario Liberal strategist and partner at public affairs firm Crestview Strategy, said tariffs are top of mind for voters, which has made it more difficult for the opposition leaders to break through. But Mr. Ford’s “hot mic” moment has given his party an opportunity, he said, and the tariff pause has created a window to focus on other pressing issues.

“I think that it’s going to be difficult for Ford to re-centre this back on tariffs,” he said. “A lot of people are going to be thinking, ‘Is health care better after seven years? Is my life better after seven years of Doug Ford?’”

Ms. Stiles, who took the reins of her party two years ago, has promised to spend an additional $830-million a year to fix up dilapidated schools, and millions more to hire more teachers and support staff, reduce class sizes and launch a new student food program. She has also pledged more funding for homelessness, promised rent control and said she would build or acquire 300,000 affordable homes. Ms. Stiles also released a plan Friday to spend $4.05-billion over four years to recruit 3,500 new doctors.

The NDP faces a big challenge getting its message out with a new leader who lacks the wider name recognition of her rivals. The New Democrats argue that Ms. Stiles, a former school trustee and union policy director, would do a better job of standing up for workers while also hitting Mr. Ford’s track record.

NDP strategist Kathleen Monk said the tariff threat now has many people following the news much more closely – creating a chance, amid Mr. Trump’s 30-day pause, for Ms. Stiles to introduce herself to voters.

“It’s opened up a new opportunity for folks to take a closer look,” Ms. Monk said. “It’s almost like Trump has been a bucket of cold water that has been splashed onto folks, and now all-of-a-sudden, they are awake.”

Mr. Ford’s team feels the tariff threat, while on hold, remains very much alive, and that Mr. Trump’s unpredictability means that Mr. Ford must continue his advocacy for an integrated trading relationship. The party is also planning to focus more on targeting China, with announcements around both government procurement and the flow of fentanyl expected in the coming days. The PC Party also released a list of unions and union locals that have endorsed them, the result of years of outreach to mostly private-sector and construction unions.

Mr. Ford’s tariff response plan includes a $22-billion boost to the province’s 10-year, $200-billion infrastructure spending and $10-billion worth of six-month tax deferrals for businesses. He said he would leave any direct support for laid-off workers to the federal employment insurance system. Ms. Stiles has called for a joint federal-provincial income-support program for affected workers and support for the auto sector. Ms. Crombie has said she would offer low-interest loans to employers, among other initiatives.

Shakir Chambers, a Conservative strategist and vice-president at communications firm Oyster Group, said politicians at every level of government are talking about tariffs – and Mr. Ford’s PCs are benefiting. He doesn’t think the recent reprieve will change that.

“It’s just playing out, I think, pretty perfect for them,” Mr. Chambers said. “I don’t think there’s any other leader who can talk about tariffs and have any credibility, or talk about taking on Trump and have any credibility, outside of Ford right now.”