Doly Begum was first elected as a provincial New Democrat in 2018.Cole Burston/The Canadian Press
The federal Liberals have recruited the deputy leader of the Ontario New Democrats to run in the Toronto riding recently vacated by former cabinet minister Bill Blair, setting the stage for a coming by-election.
And Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, who has signalled he plans to run for leader of the Ontario Liberals, now says he’ll seek the provincial nomination in the same riding – which could trigger another federal by-election if he wins and takes a seat in the Ontario legislature.
The political dominoes that fell on Tuesday started toppling as a result of the surprise resignation of Doly Begum, a three-term NDP member of provincial Parliament for Scarborough Southwest.
The federal Liberal Party announced that Ms. Begum will be their candidate in Mr. Blair’s former riding of the same name, after he resigned as an MP on Monday to become Canada’s next high commissioner to the United Kingdom.
It is the second high-profile departure in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s caucus.
Last month, Mr. Blair’s former cabinet colleague, Chrystia Freeland, resigned her seat for the Toronto riding of University-Rosedale, which means there will be at least two federal by-elections on the horizon.
And if Mr. Erskine-Smith wins his provincial nomination, there could be three – although he said in an online post on Tuesday he intends to stay on as a federal Liberal MP for now.
Nate Erskine-Smith speaks to reporters at Rideau Hall in Ottawa on Dec. 20, 2024.Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press
Mr. Erksine-Smith all but confirmed he is running for Ontario Liberal leader, saying he’s been working hard to “build a provincial team that’s ready to run, win, and govern together,” with the rules of the leadership race expected next week. That party is without permanent leadership after Bonnie Crombie resigned from the post last month.
Mr. Carney has now recruited three members from other political parties, including two former Conservative MPs who crossed the floor to the Liberals late last year and Ms. Begum, who was first elected as a provincial New Democrat in 2018.
Liberal Party president Sachit Mehra said Ms. Begum, who served as an advocate for public health care and at a local community centre prior to entering politics, “has a strong track record of public service and getting results for her community.”
Ms. Begum, in a statement released by the Liberal Party, said she understands the priorities of the community and that it’s important to come together to build “a stronger, more united, and more prosperous Canada.”
The news of Ms. Begum’s departure appeared to catch Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles off guard, saying in a brief statement that she received Ms. Begum’s notice of resignation on Tuesday morning.
“I want to thank Doly for her service and wish her well,” Ms. Stiles said.
“Our party has been proud to represent the good people of Scarborough Southwest for the past eight years and look forward to continuing that representation.”
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Don Davies, interim leader of the federal NDP, said when politicians “betray the values and policies that they claim to believe in, I think it damages our democracy and it breeds cynicism in our politics.”
“I’ll leave it to Ms. Begum to explain to the people of Scarborough Southwest why she’s abandoning the progressive policies she claimed to believe in to run for a party that is clearly governing like a conservative party,” he told reporters.
The Liberal Party’s recruitment of Ms. Begum “speaks to the breadth of the Carney coalition,” said Scott Reid, a principal at communications firm Feschuk.Reid and onetime senior aide to former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin.
“He clearly appeals to red Tories, and now he’s poaching from the provincial NDP, snatching up their deputy leader. That is a big broad voter coalition,” he said.
“How do you win elections in Canada? You win elections by appealing to the broadest cross-section of voters.”
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Dan Moulton, a partner at Crestview Strategy and an Ontario Liberal strategist, said the provincial seat is crucial for the party’s success.
“This is a seat that Ontario Liberals win when they win government. So it’s an important opportunity for the party to demonstrate its credibility in the next election,” he said.
Erin Morrison, a former senior NDP staffer and vice-president of Texture Communications, said she doesn’t view Ms. Begum’s departure as a slight to Ms. Stiles.
“I wouldn’t want this to reflect poorly on Marit or the Ontario NDP. I think they had a good relationship with Doly Begum,” she said. “I think this is about Doly’s desire to speak to foreign affairs and be engaged on that file.”
The federal Liberal Party announced Saturday that Danielle Martin, a family physician, will be the candidate for the by-election in Ms. Freeland’s former riding.
The two by-elections will be closely watched, as Mr. Carney is now two seats short of a majority government. The two resignations mean the House of Commons will have 341 members of Parliament until the by-elections are over, with the Liberals holding 169 of those seats.
With a report from Emily Haws in Ottawa