Ontario Premier Doug Ford attempted to counter U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's tariff threats by threatening to cut off electricity exports. He contradicted himself this week, however, by suggesting a new plan that would expand power exports to the U.S.Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press
Canada’s provincial premiers, usually jealous guardians of their own jurisdictions, have nonetheless stepped into the national leadership vacuum in Ottawa by inserting themselves into foreign affairs as the country faces down the impending U.S. presidency of Donald Trump.
The unique challenge of Mr. Trump, who has threatened economically devastating 25-per-cent tariffs on all Canadian goods and even the use of “economic force” to annex his northern neighbour, follows months of rudderless leadership at the federal level that culminated this week with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement he is stepping down.
As many of them do in normal times, Canada’s premiers have been working the phones with U.S. lawmakers at all levels of government, selling Canada’s status as the No. 1 trading partner for more than 30 U.S. states and talking up its key role in the continent’s tightly integrated auto and energy industries.
In Mr. Trump’s first term, the premiers also played a big part in the co-ordinated “Team Canada” approach shared by Ottawa, provincial governments and business leaders as the then-president imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum and demanded a new North American free-trade deal.
But this time the premiers have found themselves in a starring role in the current crisis with little federal direction, although Mr. Trudeau did meet with Mr. Trump in November and was in Washington this week, appearing on CNN and meeting with U.S. business leaders.
Whether anything anyone from Canada says or does will influence Mr. Trump is unclear. And veterans in the world of Canada-U.S. relations say that while the premiers are right to step in to fill a void, there are risks to what has been a kind of provincial buffet of diplomacy.
Already, premiers have contradicted each other: Note the chilly reception Ontario’s Doug Ford’s idea of cutting off electricity exports to combat tariffs received from Alberta’s Danielle Smith, who says she wants to double oil exports to the south. Mr. Ford this week even contradicted himself, suggesting a new plan that would expand – not cut – power exports to the U.S. Ontario’s Premier also jumped out ahead of Ottawa in November, demanding that Mexico be tossed out of trade talks between Canada and the U.S.
Bruce Heyman, who served as U.S. ambassador to Canada under the Democratic administration of Barack Obama, says the approach is clearly evolving in the face of a vacuum in Ottawa.
“We’ll see how effective it is,” he told The Globe and Mail. “But obviously I think having a team all on one side and communicating together and staying on message is much more effective than disparate, independent views.”
Mr. Heyman cautions that whoever is leading Canada’s response will need to pick their battles as Mr. Trump is expected to unleash what the former ambassador calls a “tsunami” of changes and actions after his Jan. 20 inauguration that threatens to overwhelm both Canada and Mr. Trump’s Democratic opponents in the U.S.
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump talks of using ‘economic force’ to annex Canada
Ford deploys OPP along U.S. border in hopes of averting Trump’s tariffs
The premiers are set to meet with Mr. Trudeau and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc next week, where they are expected to propose their own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods to add to Ottawa’s suggested targets – and demand more action from the federal government on the border to stave off Mr. Trump’s threatened tariffs.
On Feb. 12, a group of premiers is set to head to Washington to meet with U.S. lawmakers and plead for exemptions from any tariffs, although they are not scheduled to meet Mr. Trump himself. In a statement on Friday, the premiers said they would meet with unnamed “key members of the new administration.”
To address Mr. Trump’s stated concerns about migrants and fentanyl flowing over the border, provinces have put the British North America Act, which reserves international issues for Ottawa, to one side – even as the federal government has pledged $1.3-billion for new border measures.
Now, Alberta sheriffs are set to stop suspicious traffic going in and out a “red zone” near the province’s border with Montana, and 200 Ontario Provincial Police have been supplementing the 250 RCMP officers responsible for Ontario’s 2,760-kilometre frontier with the U.S., outside of formal crossing points controlled by the Canada Border Services Agency.
Plus, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said last month he would deploy conservation officers, normally charged with finding out-of-season hunters and the like, along the 49th parallel in his province to catch illegal migrants or drug smugglers.
Meanwhile, some premiers have started to sound like de facto federal foreign ministers.
Ms. Smith is invited to Mr. Trump’s inauguration, where she says she will make Canada’s case. Mr. Ford, who is currently the rotating chair of the premiers’ Council of the Federation, has so far unsuccessfully sought his own meeting with the president-elect. But he appeared on U.S. cable news TV – including Mr. Trump’s favoured Fox News – where this week he said Canada was “not for sale” and said the two countries should instead co-operate on a plan called Fortress Am-Can to boost energy co-operation and combat cheap Chinese goods.
Asked by reporters at Queen’s Park on Wednesday if he had received any feedback from Ottawa on his Fortress Am-Can concept, he replied: “Ah, nothing. I haven’t heard from them. There’s a lack of leadership right now in Ottawa.”
Gary Mar, who served as Alberta’s representative in Washington from 2007 to 2011 and is now CEO of the Canada West Foundation think tank, said the longstanding practice of premiers cultivating relationships with governors and state-level lawmakers as well as business leaders will be invaluable in trying to influence Mr. Trump.
“This is a case of provincial premiers showing national leadership in the absence of federal leadership,” said Mr. Mar, a former cabinet minister under Alberta premier Ralph Klein.
Laura Dawson, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition, an binational industry organization that focuses on Canada-U.S. relations, warned that without a co-ordinated message that puts provincial politics aside – and has local U.S. allies repeating it – White House officials could tune Canada out.
But she lauded Mr. Ford for a composed appearance on Fox News and Ms. Smith for heading to the inauguration, arguing that making allies out of Mr. Trump’s supporters is something Canada simply must do.
“The alternative is to ignore Donald Trump or wait it out until he’s no longer president,” Dr. Dawson said. “I go by the old adage, you know, ‘if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.’”