Leader of the Parti Quebecois (PQ) Paul St-Pierre Plamondon makes a speech after winning his election to become the next premier of Quebec, in Montreal, Oct. 5.ANDREJ IVANOV/AFP/Getty Images
Quebec has elected the separatist Parti Québécois to a minority government, setting the stage for years of uncertainty about the party’s promised independence referendum, which will now require support from elsewhere in the province’s fragmented political landscape.
After a five-way race that revealed a divided province and a splintered federalist vote, incoming premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party was leading or elected in 59 of the province’s 127 seats in Monday’s provincial election as of early Tuesday morning, fewer than the 64 needed to secure a majority in the National Assembly.
With 97 per cent of polls reporting, the PQ was on track to receive less than 30 per cent of the popular vote – which would be the lowest share of support for a government in Quebec history.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon was thwarted in his quest for a majority by late surges from the Quebec Liberal Party and the Quebec Conservatives. Both parties oppose a separation vote and have vowed to block one in the National Assembly.
The governing Coalition Avenir Québec, meanwhile, was wiped off the map after running the province for eight years. Leader Christine Fréchette lost her own seat as the party was completely shut out on Monday.
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The election results come at a delicate moment for national unity, with a referendum in Alberta two weeks away, and persistent threats to Canada’s sovereignty and economy from U.S. President Donald Trump. Among the provinces, Quebec has been the biggest casualty of Mr. Trump’s protectionist trade agenda, which has targeted its aluminum and forest product industries in particular.
The PQ Leader has promised a vote on the province’s place within Canada once Mr. Trump leaves office in 2029, at which point Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon says Quebec can have a “serene” discussion about its future.
Parti Québécois supporters cheer as results come in at PQ headquarters on election night in Montreal.Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press
With a minority in the National Assembly, the PQ would need support from other parties or individual MNAs to trigger a referendum, and to stay in power. The PQ’s comeback comes after years in the wilderness. The party was last in government in 2014; in 2022, it had just three seats.
Despite saying little about independence during the election campaign, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon spoke at length about sovereignty during his victory speech in Montreal on Monday.
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“The Quebec we want to build for ourselves will be French-speaking. It will be prosperous and modern, but above all, it will be among the most exemplary democracies on the planet,” he said.
“We simply want to exist as a nation and make our own decisions, just like the other 200 countries in the world... We must not let fear prevent us from fulfilling our destiny. And that destiny lies before us. The courageous struggle of francophones in America to preserve their cultural identity will find meaning when that people obtains its own country and the recognition that comes with having their own country and their own democracy.”
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon suggested the PQ could launch a referendum with the backing of opposition lawmakers who support independence and “would make this commitment possible.”
He also sent a message directly to the rest of Canada. “The independence project we are pursuing is not directed against you, and Quebec will always be a partner in good faith, open to collaboration, just as we have always been,” he said.
Coalition Avenir Quebec Leader Christine Frechette speaks at the party's election night headquarters in Trois-Rivieres on Monday.Mathieu Belanger/Reuters
The PQ Leader could make relations with the federal government far more contentious. He is vowing to eliminate the role of lieutenant-governor in Quebec and fight any increases in immigration at a time when Prime Minister Mark Carney is seeking inter-provincial peace in the face of U.S. economic aggression.
Mr. Carney congratulated Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon on his victory on social media on Monday night, and said he looks forward to working together “to support Québec’s businesses and workers impacted by tariffs, create more good jobs, work to end homelessness, and get more homes built across Québec.”
Polls show only about 30 per cent of Quebeckers support independence, a historically low level in the province, where previous referendums led by then-PQ governments in 1980 and 1995 tallied 40 and 49 per cent support respectively.
The new government may struggle to defend the legitimacy of holding an independence vote, while calls to reform the provincial electoral system are likely to grow louder.
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Québec solidaire, a left-wing separatist party that focuses more on social justice than independence, was projected to finish fourth, but could now wield the balance of power in the National Assembly after retaining many of its stronghold seats in Montreal.
It remains uncertain whether QS would support the PQ’s referendum ambitions. The two parties diverge sharply on immigration and identity issues, while Ruba Ghazal, the co-leader for QS, has promised a more wide-ranging consultation on the nature of an independent Quebec.
On Monday, Ms. Ghazal said she wants to build an independent Quebec alongside immigrants, Indigenous people and anglophones. “We’re going to be there to build a country that leaves no one behind,” she said. “A country for and by the people, a country for everyone.”
The election marks an unforgiving end to the eight-year reign of the Coalition Avenir Québec, which won consecutive majorities under former premier François Legault. Its brand of nationalism without independence – a vaunted “third way” between federalism and separatism – strongly resonated with voters, but the party was undone by several episodes of financial mismanagement in recent years.
Under Ms. Fréchette, the CAQ was unable to counter an overwhelming appetite for change. An early polling bump spurred by the U.S. trade war gave the outgoing Premier a chance to portray herself as a defender of Quebeckers. But as the shock of the conflict diminished, voters’ attention drifted elsewhere.
At the CAQ’s election night event at the Delta Hotel in Trois-Rivières Monday, supporters had almost nothing to cheer about. Some stared at live results on a jumbo screen with stone-faced expressions.
Quebec Conservative Party supporters cheer as they view results displayed on screen during election night in Lévis, Que., Oct. 5.Karoline Boucher/The Canadian Press
“This result is clearly not what we’d hoped for and as party leader, I assume the entire responsibility for it,” Ms. Fréchette said in her concession speech. “Quebeckers wanted change and I respect their choice. I want to tell you that the convictions that united us will continue. The Coalition will continue to promote a third way – that of a Quebec that affirms its identity, protects its language and culture, maintains our autonomy, and gives itself the means to protect and transform its economy.”
Ms. Fréchette has vowed to stay on as party leader and work with Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon to ease the transition to his government.
The Quebec Liberal Party under new Leader Charles Milliard struggled to distinguish itself from other parties opposing a referendum, despite a strong end to the campaign, and the party was poised to finish in second place. The most resolutely federalist party in Quebec now faces being locked out of power for a decade or more, its longest stretch in opposition since the 1950s.
Still, the party’s projected 40 seats were more than many PLQ faithful hoped for entering Monday night, and the mood at Mr. Milliard’s gathering in Magog was upbeat. The incoming Opposition leader vowed to work with the new PQ government on some issues, but block its referendum hopes.
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“A minority government means they don’t have a blank cheque to do what they want,” said Mr. Milliard. “We’ll collaborate on the housing crisis, the homelessness crisis. On the sovereignty crisis, we won’t be collaborating.”
The anti-referendum vote was further splintered by a relatively new force in Quebec politics, the provincial Conservative Party, unrelated to its federal namesake, which is projected to win 19 seats, entering the National Assembly for the first time with a flourish. Under the leadership of former radio host Éric Duhaime, the party captured voters in the traditionally right-leaning Quebec City and Beauce regions who felt government spending has become bloated and wasteful.
The geopolitical context largely took a back seat in this campaign to more prosaic concerns about deteriorating public services and the cost of living. A majority of parties proposed cuts to the size of the public service and immigration. A small-c conservative mood prevailed, with even the historically social-democratic PQ moving to the right.
Despite the upsurge in pro-Canadian sentiment in recent years, Quebeckers also remain anxious about the state of the French language and Quebec culture after years of sharply rising immigration under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the expansion of an overwhelmingly English-language digital sphere.