Quebec Finance Minister Eric Girard presents his budget speech at the legislature in Quebec City, on Wednesday.Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press
Months ahead of a fall election, the Quebec government has tabled a restrained budget with a lower-than-expected $8.6-billion deficit that aims to bolster Quebec’s economy in the face of trade headwinds and geopolitical tension.
Quebec Finance Minister Éric Girard says he has delivered a “responsible, sober and targeted” fiscal plan at a time of uncertainty.
The budget was tabled in the National Assembly on Wednesday, weeks before the governing Coalition Avenir Québec is set to choose a new leader. Premier François Legault announced his resignation in January, while the CAQ’s popularity has collapsed ahead of an election scheduled for October. The Parti Québécois has been leading in the polls for two years, though the Liberals could mount a challenge.
This year’s fiscal plan is a far cry from the CAQ’s last pre-election budget in 2022, when it promised $500 cash payments to taxpayers, a move panned by the opposition at the time as short-sighted electioneering.
Four years on, no such goodies are to be found in the government’s eighth budget, which could well be its last.
Mr. Girard holds a copy of the provincial budget on Tuesday.Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press
Far from flashy election-season promises, the budget plan instead highlights a reduced deficit and a promise to return to balance by the end of the decade.
During a press conference on Wednesday, Mr. Girard said conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, increased protectionism and the rise of artificial intelligence have created a “climate of uncertainty” that is dampening investment and global trade.
Aside from the Middle East crisis, Mr. Girard said, the coming renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is the “most important risk facing Quebec’s economy.” The province is particularly vulnerable to U.S. tariffs, especially on aluminum.
“Despite the uncertainty and the geopolitical and economic tensions, I want to underline that Quebec has undeniable economic assets and that Quebec has every reason to be optimistic looking forward,” the Finance Minister said.
The budget plan includes $1.7-billion in new spending to support Quebec businesses and help transform the province’s economy in the face of global turmoil. The government wants to stimulate business investment in “promising sectors,” particularly in defence and manufacturing. It is also promising new support for the province’s forestry sector, which has been struck hard by U.S. tariffs.
Saskatchewan budget avoids tax hikes but projects $819-million deficit
Separately, the government is creating a $2.5-billion fund for critical and strategic minerals, which it says are essential to the defence and aerospace sectors.
But Véronique Proulx, president of the Quebec federation of chambers of commerce, said the budget commitments “aren’t to the level that was needed” to help companies affected by the trade dispute with the U.S. and the crisis in the Middle East. The organization had called for a reduced tax burden for businesses.
“We were hoping to get more ambitious measures to help companies go through this crisis,” she said.
Meanwhile, the budget’s most eye-catching promise to taxpayers is a pledge to convert 5,000 non-subsidized child-care spaces into subsidized spaces by 2027, at a cost of nearly $850-million. It also pledges $741-million to build 1,000 affordable housing units. Those commitments are part of a $3.6-billion envelope intended partly to help Quebeckers cope with the rising cost of living.
Quebec is promising to begin filing income-tax returns automatically for some low-income residents, following the federal government’s lead.
Alberta Budget 2026: Province forecasts $9.37-billion deficit, spending expected to hit record
The government has budgeted $4.3-billion in new spending on health care, education and public safety, and $5-billion in new infrastructure dollars over six years.
The projected $8.6-billion deficit, equivalent to 1.3 per cent of GDP, includes deposits into a debt-repayment fund. The government also revised the 2025-26 deficit down to $9.9-billion, from $12.4-billion projected last fall.
Mr. Girard said the government remains committed to balancing the budget by 2029-30, a promise made last year.
The fiscal plan assumes that current tariff rates will remain stable in the coming years and that the recent rise in oil prices because of the conflict in the Middle East will be temporary. It projects real GDP growth of 1.1 per cent in 2026, up from 0.8 per cent last year.
However, it also lays out alternative scenarios. An increase in tariffs, the withdrawal of the United States from the USMCA or a prolonged oil shock would cause a recession and jeopardize Quebec’s plan to balance its budget, it says. Conversely, a renegotiated trade agreement with the U.S. would further stimulate economic growth.
Opposition parties said the fiscal plan is disconnected from the priorities of Quebeckers, who they said are struggling with the high cost of housing and food and poor access to public services.
Liberal Leader Charles Milliard said the budget displayed a “lack of vision and a lack of ambition,” and that the 2025-26 deficit of nearly $10-billion is “not a cause for celebration.”
The opposition also took aim at a $250-million-a-year fund that Mr. Girard reserved for the priorities of the future leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec, who will be chosen in April.
Québec Solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal said it amounts to a “credit card” for the next premier, calling it irresponsible.