Nate Erskine-Smith, candidate for the Ontario Liberal Party nomination in the riding of Scarborough Southwest, speaks with riding resident Amin Remtulla on Thursday.Photography by Arlyn McAdorey/The Globe and Mail
Nate Erskine-Smith approaches a small grey house and introduces himself to two men who appear at the door. They are on his list as members of the Ontario Liberal Party.
“There’s a vote on Saturday. Are you guys aware of the vote?” Mr. Erskine-Smith asks.
They stare at him blankly.
Mr. Erskine-Smith explains the contest: He’s vying to be the Ontario Liberal candidate for a future by-election in their east Toronto riding of Scarborough Southwest.
Asked who they are supporting, one of the men hesitates, then names one of Mr. Erskine-Smith’s main rivals: Ahsanul Hafiz.
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For Mr. Erskine-Smith, the answer exposes the problems in the contest. “No idea what they signed up for,” he says.
While nomination battles can often be heated affairs, full of internecine infighting, they rarely attract significant outside attention. But that is not the case in Scarborough Southwest, where the race to select the next Liberal candidate could transform the future of the party – and perhaps the province.
The stakes are especially high for Mr. Erskine-Smith. Becoming the candidate in Scarborough Southwest is seen as a crucial step in his plan to run for Ontario Liberal leader – and for a chance to be premier.
In a video posted to Mr. Erskine-Smith’s Instagram account late Friday, Prime Minister Mark Carney offered him his support.
“It hurts in some respects you’re going, but I understand it, because you’re going to be more on the ground - working at the provincial level, working for the folks, I hope, in Scarborough, in health care and education, making lives better, helping to grow that economy, and we’ll be right there alongside,” the Prime Minister said in the video, standing next to Mr. Erskine-Smith.
Ontario Liberal strategist Dan Moulton, a partner at public-affairs agency Crestview Strategy, said the nomination race will define the trajectory of Mr. Erskine-Smith’s leadership bid. “It will either be the start of his very compelling campaign, or a very quick end to it.”
Mr. Erskine-Smith, a veteran federal politician with a reputation as a maverick, has made no secret of his ambition to lead the Ontario Liberals, frequently talking about the need to change and rebuild after three election losses to Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives since 2018.
The past two Ontario Liberal leaders – Steven Del Duca and Bonnie Crombie – didn’t win their seats, which many in the party believe was detrimental to its chances.
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The Scarborough seat was vacated when former Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum quit in February to run for the federal Liberals. Many in the party believe the provincial Liberals have a shot at winning it back.
A diverse neighbourhood with a large Bangladeshi population, Scarborough Southwest is a mix of modest houses, apartment complexes and larger new builds, with parks and community centres dotting its urban landscape.
Four candidates are running in the nomination contest, and voters will mark their choices on a ranked ballot. Members had to register in advance to vote, and will do so in person at a local high school. The party says more than 3,500 people are on the final voting list.
Mr. Erskine-Smith’s candidacy has been a lightning rod in the race. He has been accused of using the riding to advance his leadership, not to represent the community’s interests. He’s also faced criticism for staying on as a federal MP for neighbouring Beaches-East York, which he said was done at the behest of Mr. Carney. He says he has long-time ties to the area, including as a young baseball player in Scarborough.
Two other candidates – Mr. Hafiz and Qadira Jackson – are asking supporters to mark them as first and second choice, which could block Mr. Erskine-Smith from winning.
Ahsanul Hafiz, candidate for the Ontario Liberal Party nomination in the riding of Scarborough Southwest, originally came to Canada from Bangladesh as an international student and now operates 30 Domino’s Pizza stores across Ontario.
Standing on a sidewalk on a residential street in Scarborough recently, Mr. Hafiz was frequently greeted warmly by people driving by. A vice-chair of the federal Liberal Party, Mr. Hafiz settled in Scarborough from Bangladesh as an international student and now operates 30 Domino’s Pizza stores across Ontario. He lived in London, Ont., and now resides in the riding with his family.
“I’m very busy and excited about how we can win the nomination race,” he said, adding that he’s focused on affordability and jobs for young people.
Mr. Hafiz, too, has had to contend with criticism from within Liberal circles, including over past social-media activity. In posts from 2013 he called for the death penalty of a former Bangladeshi politician; another shows him posing with guns.
Asked about the posts, Mr. Hafiz said he visited a gun range once. He acknowledged that some of his posts were “not appropriate,” but that emotions were high in Bangladesh at the time. The old posts do not reflect who he is, he added.
His campaign is being run by Ted Lojko, who also ran the 2019 nomination of former Liberal MP Han Dong. That nomination was probed during the public inquiry into foreign interference, after allegations that Chinese students were bused in to support Mr. Dong under threats from China.
The commission concluded that determining what took place at the meeting was not within its mandate, but said that the incident “makes clear the extent to which nomination contests can be gateways for foreign states who wish to interfere in our democratic processes.”
Mr. Lojko dismissed the concerns outright, calling them “absolute nonsense.” “There was absolutely no evidence of that.”
Contention in the Scarborough Southwest race deepened this week, when Mr. Erskine-Smith alleged the party’s new, two-step membership verification process, done through e-mail, left long-time Liberals, many of them seniors, disenfranchised.
And unlike the federal party, the Ontario Liberals still allow temporary residents to vote in nominations, which Mr. Erskine-Smith calls frustrating when others can’t vote. The Ontario Liberal Party has repeatedly said it has run a fair and open nomination.
Mr. Hafiz also dismissed Mr. Erskine-Smith’s concerns about the memberships, saying he’s followed all the rules and signed most people up at their doors.
Qadira Jackson, candidate for the Ontario Liberal Party nomination in the riding of Scarborough Southwest, says she has deep roots in the area and truly understands the community.
Ms. Jackson, who previously ran for the Ontario Liberals, has been one of Mr. Erskine-Smith’s harshest critics. A lawyer and former social worker, she said she has deep roots in the riding and truly understands the community.
“My No. 1 goal is winning,” she said. “My number two goal is not having a leadership candidate in my riding. Because we deserve to have a candidate that’s actually present doing the work, not someone touring all of Ontario and using my riding as a stepping stone for something bigger.”
The fourth candidate, Mahmuda Nasrin, a community worker and teacher, said she has lived in the riding for 20 years and also understands the community’s needs. “I have my lived experience. I raised my two kids here,” she said.
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Shahidul Mintu, editor of the Weekly Bangla Mail and chief executive officer of Bengali television channel NRB TV, said he is watching the nomination contest closely, noting the Bangladeshi population will make up a significant chunk of the votership.
“This is a really interesting election in our community, because most of the community people are involved in this election,” he said.
Sharan Kaur, a former Liberal staffer who is now a principal at public-affairs firm Navigator, said success will depend on who can best organize supporters on the day of the vote.
She believes Mr. Erskine-Smith will join the leadership race regardless of what happens on the weekend.
“Nate’s got a lot of ambition and he’s made it quite clear,” she said.
For his part, Mr. Erskine-Smith is staying mum about his plans if he fails to win the nomination.
“I joked with the Prime Minister this morning that if I’d known it would be such a bruising provincial nomination, I would have put my name down for ambassador,” he said.