Six charts that reveal the story of the 2025 election

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Over the past eight elections going back to 2004, Canadians have only twice elected a majority government. But the 2025 election, which returned Liberal Leader Mark Carney to the Prime Minister’s Office with what appears likely to be a minority mandate, still represents a departure from the usual pattern of Canadian elections.

This was a two-party race. Normally Canadian elections are decided in the complicated riding dynamics of three- or four-party contests, with the New Democrats, the Bloc Québécois in Quebec and the Green Party (in some constituencies) playing an often unpredictable role in the outcome. That was less the case this time, a fact reflected in the much higher vote share for the Liberal and Conservative parties.

The race was overshadowed by the threats to Canada’s sovereignty from U.S. President Donald Trump who, even on election day, suggested Canadians embrace becoming the 51st U.S. state.

The Conservatives, who tried to make the race a referendum on the three-term government of Justin Trudeau, didn’t succeed in persuading Canadians to throw out the governing party. But they did achieve stronger results and a higher share of the vote. Some of those gains came at the expense of the NDP.

But the negative impact of the collapse of the NDP vote likely outweighed the positives, from the Conservatives’ perspective, as the vote shift tended to favour the Liberals. Ian Brodie, former chief of staff to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and now a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said on X that Mr. Harper, “knew that a healthy NDP was essential to his own success.”

“In two-party competition, not offending voters is as important as winning them over,” Mr. Brodie wrote.

Here is the story of the election in charts:

Vote efficiency: better than is typical for the Conservatives

There was a sense heading into election night that the Conservatives had to strongly outperform their standing in the polls to form government. The Liberal vote, historically, has been more efficiently distributed, which means more seats from fewer votes. The Conservatives tend to win by overwhelming margins in Western Canada, while the Liberals win most of their seats in Eastern and Central Canada with lesser margins. The results, however, show the efficiency effect was relatively modest this time around. The Conservatives won a slightly greater share of seats than their vote total would have produced in a perfectly proportional system. The Liberal vote was efficient, but not overwhelmingly so. And the NDP significantly underperformed its vote totals, winning only 2 per cent of seats on more than 6 per cent of the vote.

An electoral map with much less orange

The national electoral map tells a familiar story in Canadian politics over the past 40 years. West of Ontario the Conservatives dominate the picture, with Tory blue the predominant colour in most elections. Ontario this time around was divided between Liberal and Conservative. The light blue of the Bloc was slightly diminished in 2025 but still prominent. Atlantic Canada, which has at times been swept by the Liberal Party was also competitive. The difference, this time around, was the disappearance of the NDP, often notable in a map view for the orange strength in large Northern ridings across Ontario, the Prairies, British Columbia and the Territories.

An east vs. west divide

Mark Carney’s first election victory was quite different from Justin Trudeau’s in 2015. Mr. Carney did not sweep Ontario, as his predecessor did when he won 80 seats en route to securing a majority government, but he did win enough to hold on to power. The Liberals picked up a single seat in Saskatchewan, which they hadn’t done since the days of Ralph Goodale, and held their own with half a dozen seats in Manitoba, giving them a larger Western presence in caucus. B.C. was evenly split this time between Liberals and Conservatives, leaving Quebec to decide the election. At a time of economic and political crisis, Quebec voters opted for the Liberals rather than the sovereigntist Bloc. Mr. Carney’s strong showing in the province guaranteed at least a minority government. And a stronger Conservative result in the northeastern and northwestern parts of the Greater Toronto Area prevented the Liberals from winning a majority.

High voter turnout, but not a record percentage

More than 68 per cent of eligible voters took part in the federal election, according to Elections Canada, an improvement over the 62.6-per-cent turnout in the 2021 election. Pollsters widely expected more people to vote in this contest, and more than 19.5 million did, but it’s still a far cry from the record from 1958, when 79.4 per cent of eligible Canadians voted.

Conservative seat share increased

The Conservatives made significant gains when it comes to share of seats in this election, rising from 35.3 per cent in 2021 to 42 per cent. While the Liberals increased to 49.3 per cent from 47.5 per cent, the real story was in the seats dropped by the NDP, who lost official party status and slipped from 7.4 per cent to 2 per cent of seats, and the Bloc Québécois, who tumbled from 9.2 per cent of seats to 6.4 per cent.

Two parties dominated voting

The last time two parties claimed more than 40 per cent of the popular vote in a federal election, R.B. Bennett’s Conservative Party won a majority government and turfed out the Liberal Party led by Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King in 1930. Normally, winning more than 40 per cent of the popular vote is enough to form government in Canada, but the collapse of the NDP and losses by the Bloc allowed the Liberals to hold onto power.

Editor’s note: A previous version of the sixth chart, which depicts the Liberals' and Conservatives' percentage of the popular vote over the years, included some incorrect information on the Liberals' data. This has been corrected.