Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Wednesday Canada would recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in September.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Canada’s planned recognition of the state of Palestine is a significant step but in many ways the decision is largely symbolic, as experts suggest the move will not have major practical or legal implications in the months ahead.
What did Ottawa say?
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Canada would recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, which starts on Sept. 9. Mr. Carney said this “intention is predicated” on several commitments from the Palestinian Authority: governance reform; the promise to hold elections next year, in which Hamas cannot be involved; and a demilitarized Palestinian state.
That sounds like a contingent rather than certain recognition of statehood. How will Ottawa measure whether the Palestinian Authority delivers on what Canada has laid out?
Thomas Juneau is an expert on the Middle East, currently a professor at the University of Ottawa and previously a strategic analyst focused on the Middle East at the Department of National Defence. He said Canada’s demands are ambitious and the right ones to put on the table but added: “In a narrow sense, there is a precisely zero per cent chance that all of that is going to happen by September.”
The question is what threshold Canada accepts. There is leeway to declare the Palestinian Authority is making progress toward the goals and Prof. Juneau presumes Canada didn’t make a pledge now only to revoke it in six weeks.
What’s the concrete impact of Canada’s move?
Canadians and Palestinians already have basic diplomatic relations in place and this change isn’t likely to lead to a substantial shift.
There is a Palestinian General Delegation to Canada, led by chief representative Mona Abuamara, in Ottawa. The delegation works to “promote and strengthen the ties” with Canada.
And there is a Representative Office of Canada to the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah in the West Bank, about 20 kilometres north of Jerusalem. Graham Dattels is Canada’s representative there.
Canada’s plan to recognize Palestinian statehood prompts swift, divided reaction
“It’s not going to be upgraded to an embassy as far as a I can tell,” said Prof. Juneau.
“Concretely, I don’t think there is an on-the-ground impact in the short term. That is an important point to make. This is a small step. It’s a bit more than symbolical, because done collectively in concert with allies, it can – as part of a broader strategy – help create momentum for a peace process.”
Does this move lead to new obligations for Canada?
“In practice the answer to that is no,” said Prof. Juneau. “Politically, it creates certain expectations, but in terms of legal or material obligations, in practice I have not seen indications that it would.”
What’s the point of this then?
Palestinian statehood has already been recognized by close to 150 countries, about three-quarters of all UN members, from 1988 and onward. To varying degrees, those earlier moves were part of bolstering the legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority, which was officially formed in 1994, and the potential for a peace process that could eventually lead to a two-state solution.
The latest decisions on pending statehood recognition from France, Britain and Canada – as the war and deprivations in Gaza intensify – fit in that mould of bolstering the Palestinian Authority and possibly carry added weight coming from three members of the Group of Seven countries.
“If there is to be an impact, it’s if countries act in a concerted and collective way,” said Prof. Juneau. International help is necessary. “The Palestinian Authority is weak. It’s corrupt, it’s fragmented, and it is perceived as illegitimate by many Palestinians.”
What did the former Canadian ambassadors and other high-ranking diplomats say in their open letter to Mr. Carney this week about recognizing Palestinian statehood?
The group, numbering 173 signatories, said such a move would reinforce Canada’s commitment to the self-determination of Palestinians and “our total rejection” of any effort to displace or expel Palestinians in the region.
Recognizing a Palestinian state “will create the political space needed to set the stage of a serious bilateral negotiation process,” the group wrote, and “send a clear message” to the current Israeli government.
What is the impact on Israel of Canada’s recognition of Palestinian statehood?
The move potentially adds to Israel’s diplomatic isolation but its actual impact may be muted, said Prof. Juneau.
“From Israel’s perspective,” he said, “there is one external opinion that matters and it’s that of the U.S.”