Liberal Leader Mark Carney waves next to local candidate Bryan May at Monigram Coffee Roasters during his Liberal Party election campaign tour in Cambridge, Ont. on April 25.Carlos Osorio/Reuters
Major party leaders are spending the final stretch of the federal election campaign in traditionally safe ridings that are at risk ahead of Monday’s vote.
The campaign started on March 23, when Liberal Leader Mark Carney triggered a snap election shortly after taking over from former prime minister Justin Trudeau. In the weeks since, Canada’s party leaders have crossed the country as they made promises to tackle the housing crisis, curb immigration levels, and – critically – confront U.S. President Donald Trump, whose tariffs and trade war defined the campaign.
Jonathan Malloy, professor and chair in Canadian parliamentary democracy at Carleton University’s Department of Political Science, said the initial stages of the campaign followed a familiar logic, with party leaders going to where most of the votes are in Canada, including the suburban Greater Toronto Area, B.C.’s Lower Mainland, and Montreal as well as the surrounding areas.
However, it’s in the final days that things became more telling. “You really get a sense of where the priorities are,” said Mr. Malloy, noting that Mr. Poilievre’s stop in Saskatoon on Thursday raised eyebrows.
“If you’re the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and you feel the need to campaign in Saskatchewan in the final days before the vote, that’s not a good sign,” he said.
Saskatoon has been a Conservative stronghold in recent elections, so a trip there on the last leg of the campaign could possibly suggest the party is noting some weakness there, according to Mr. Malloy.
He contrasted this with the Liberals under Mr. Carney, who appear to be targeting areas they see as competitive but winnable. “They’re trying to go for the areas they want to make sure they can flip to make a majority,” he said.
Mr. Carney’s recent stops in the Lower Mainland and Winnipeg reflect this effort. “It’s logical,” Mr. Malloy said. “If you feel confident of winning, you go for the marginal seats … if you feel you’re in trouble, then you focus on saving the seats you have.”
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s repeated returns to B.C., including his riding of Burnaby South, also hinted at weak points.
“Usually, party leaders are fairly confident of winning their seats,” said Mr. Malloy. “But Singh is spending a lot of time in his own riding, which again would suggest that he’s not confident he’s going to win it.”
Green Party Co-Leader Elizabeth May has also spent most of her time in B.C. and her riding of Saanich–Gulf Islands.
Beyond the campaign trail itself, Mr. Malloy said it stood out that messages about leadership overshadowed all else.
“The lack of discussion of policy is quite striking,” he said, adding that all major parties delayed their platform releases until the final days. “This has really been an election about leadership … the right leader to stand up to Donald Trump.”