B.C. Premier David Eby speaks during a news conference in Vancouver, on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025.ETHAN CAIRNS/The Canadian Press
British Columbia Premier David Eby says U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threat amounts to “a declaration of economic war” that could erase 124,000 jobs and measurably reduce economic growth in the province, with a cumulative loss of $69-billion in economic activity between 2025 and 2028.
Mr. Eby told a news conference Thursday that he is prepared to inflict a wide array of retaliatory measures against the U.S. including a restriction on overland transport of mainland U.S. goods through B.C. to Alaska.
“The reason we are sharing this information with you is not to scare you, but to reassure you that we understand the gravity of the threat,” he said, “and that we are responding to this threat with everything we have.”
The estimates of the economic impact were based on preliminary assessments by the ministry of finance. The ministry’s assumptions are founded on what might be worst-case scenarios – that the 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. are imposed next week when Mr. Trump officially takes office, and that they remain in place for the duration of his term. As well, finance officials assume that Canada will retaliate in kind. In addition, the figures include key economic indicators and inputs that are shaped by other factors such as the recent changes to Ottawa’s immigration targets, which will have an impact on the labour market and demographics.
While a formal economic forecast is still in the works, the province is likely facing lean times ahead. The current forecasts have the economy growing by 1.9 per cent in 2025 as interest rates and inflation ease. Under the preliminary assessment, B.C. is heading for recession, with the Province’s real GDP projected to potentially decline by 0.6 per cent year over year in both 2025 and 2026.
Mr. Eby said B.C. will work to diversify its economy and expand trade with other countries and other provinces. He added that the province has a number of potential levers it can use to retaliate. “We allow American companies to bid on government contracts. We allow American alcohol products to sit side by side with B.C. products. We allow American trucks to travel through British Columbia, to go up to Alaska to deliver goods without any charges,” he said. “That’s just a handful of examples, and all of that is on the table in a world where we are not working together, where we are under active attack by the Americans economically. And we’ll make sure that we respond in kind.”
The B.C. government is preparing its next budget which will be tabled March 4, and Mr. Eby said that budget will have to reflect the economic circumstances that will be clearer after Mr. Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. That could mean that some of the promises made in the October provincial election, including a grocery rebate of up to $1,000 per household, will have to be suspended.
“The finance minister is preparing her budget,” Mr. Eby said. “She is taking into account all the uncertainty that is there in terms of the intentions of the Americans, and we may have an answer the day after the president is sworn in, in terms of what his direction is, and my direction to her and to every minister is to ensure that we are oriented to protect British Columbia.”