A person leaves a civic election polling station in Vancouver, on Oct. 15, 2022. Low voter turnout might mean that ABC supporters who like the party’s pro-police and tough on crime stance could be the deciders.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
In a by-election that many are calling a referendum on first-time Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim and his new ABC Vancouver party, there’s appetite for change.
But the April 5 vote is likely to be so fractured among the candidates from the four different opposition parties that it’s not a slam-dunk that the ABC candidates running for the two open seats will lose, political experts say.
“Even though there is mounting frustration, you don’t have a vote coalescing around one opposition,” said Stewart Prest, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia.
The sentiment is shared by Kareem Allam, the former campaign manager for ABC, who has come to be critical of the way that party has moved from a centrist message to a more right-wing approach, especially given the number of residents in the 2022 general election who swung toward ABC from other parties.
“I think a lot of those voters have buyers’ remorse. But I think ABC could win because the opposition is so fractured,” said Mr. Allam, who has returned to running his private consulting business.
Some conservative voters are angry about two years of unusually high tax increases and plans for massive boosts in density in many neighbourhoods.
More left-leaning voters have been dismayed by the mayor’s initiatives to halt new supportive housing, get rid of the elected park board and the renters’ office, and remove bike lanes in Stanley Park, as well as his ultimately unsuccessful attempts to reverse a natural-gas ban on heating in new-home construction and suspend the work of the city’s integrity commissioner.
ABC doesn’t have a lot that it can point to that it has accomplished so far, said Mr. Allam.
There’s still a noticeable level of street disorder and crime, while development of new housing is stalling in spite of the party’s 2022 campaign promise to speed up permitting to encourage new projects.
Five of the people elected in its 2022 landslide win at city hall, school board and park board, have left the party or been expelled because of disputes over the mayor’s initiatives.
But, said Mr. Allam, “I’m not sure the opposition has clearly made its case to say ‘We can do better than Ken Sim.‘”
The ABC party is running Ralph Kaisers, a former Vancouver Police Union president, and Jaime Stein, a corporate customer-engagement specialist, as its candidates. Their focus has been reaching voters through private get-togethers in homes or condo meeting rooms, as well as outreach with the city’s various cultural communities. That has generated criticism about the ABC candidates’ absence from public debates.
While combatting crime and creating a vibrant city are central to the party platform, ABC has also promised to build a 50-metre swimming pool in southeast Vancouver, an area with a significant South Asian population where ABC drew a lot of support in 2022.
The winner, however, is likely to be picked by a small number of voters, as is typical of civic by-elections. The last city by-election in 2017 was won with a little more than 13,000 of about 25,000 votes cast in a city of almost 700,000 people.
“It’s going to be low voter turnout and it will be decided by the people most directly impacted,” said Mr. Allam.
That could mean that ABC supporters who like the party’s pro-police and tough on crime stance could be the deciders, he said.
Or it could mean a win for the opposition parties who do the best job of firing up their bases.
The two candidates stirring the pot the most are Sean Orr, running with the long-standing left-wing party, the Coalition of Progressive Electors, and Colleen Hardwick, a former councillor and mayoral candidate, running with TEAM for a Livable City.
Mr. Orr, a restaurant worker, media columnist and activist, is taking an unmistakable “eat the rich” approach, calling out ABC as part of the “billionaire class” and promising to fight for affordable housing – the issue that dominates most voters’ list of concerns.
On the other end of the spectrum, Ms. Hardwick is focusing on a mix of both conservative and left-leaning voters unhappy about the city’s plans for a massive new housing development along the new Broadway subway line in some of Vancouver’s oldest neighbourhoods, as well as those angry about what is perceived as a lack of financial discipline at city hall.
Ms. Hardwick insists, as she did in her term in office, that the city is rezoning far more land than it needs and actually driving up costs as a result.
OneCity nominated lawyer and environmentalist Lucy Maloney to replace Christine Boyle, now a provincial MLA, and is working with its well-established list of supporters, said Mr. Allam. Ms. Maloney is focused on criticizing Mr. Sim for doing nothing, and promising to improve access to affordable housing, safer streets and more money for libraries.
And the Green Party, which has the advantage of relying on its internationally recognized brand, is running filmmaker Annette Reilly, who is emphasizing environmental initiatives as well as daytime spaces for people to shelter from extreme cold, heat or smoke.
Despite the challenges, the ABC party is well-funded and well organized, with a professional manager brought in from Alberta. Stephen Carter has managed campaigns ranging from somewhat liberal Calgary mayoral candidates Naheed Nenshi and Jyoti Gondek to Alberta conservative premiers Danielle Smith and Alison Redford.
Mr. Carter says ABC has erected 2,000 lawn signs, compared to the 500 for TEAM, 400 and rising for OneCity, 200 for the Greens, and 150 for COPE.
Mr. Carter admits that ABC supporters “are a little bit ticked off with us on the taxation side,” but the party is banking on its efforts to battle crime, cut red tape at city hall, and make the city more vibrant.
“We’re shifting to public safety even more than in 2022 because people want public safety,” he said.
Prof. Prest said that growing alignment with police is an unusual trend and a distinct shift from the centrist space ABC previously tried to inhabit.
“With the choice of Ralph Kaisers, it’s a very clear endorsement as the party that believes in police as the only tool to deal with everything from crime to addiction to homelessness.”
That sets up a worrying situation where “to criticize ABC is to criticize the police,” he said.