One Battle After Another has picked up just about every precursor award possible.Warner Bros. Pictures/Supplied
It was only one short year ago that Hollywood experienced a collective case of Anora-mania, Conan O’Brien reminded audiences around the world just how much funnier he is than Jimmy Kimmel and Adrien Brody simply refused to stop talking. What unexpected truths will emerge after this Sunday’s Academy Awards? God (perhaps in this case that’d be newly crowned showbiz deity David Ellison) knows.
Where to watch all the 2026 Oscar nominees in Canada
Who do you think should win at the 2026 Oscars? Ask us your questions
But to even the odds just a little bit, here are my best guesses and greater hopes for who will take home a little golden man (the statue, not Ellison) this weekend, after one of the more up-and-down award races in recent memory. And if this ends up helping your Oscars betting pool, don’t forget to send a little commission back my way in the form of a Globe and Mail subscription or two.
Best Picture
Leonardo DiCaprio in a scene from One Battle After Another.The Associated Press
Will Win: One Battle After Another
They say there are no sure-things in Hollywood, but Paul Thomas Anderson’s epic about the pleasures and perils of a revolutionary life feels like a lock for the night’s biggest prize. After picking up just about every precursor award possible – from the Golden Globes to the BAFTAs to the Producers Guild of America Awards, only missing out on the best ensemble honour from last weekend’s Actor Awards – Anderson’s film has both the critical and general-audience heat behind it.
Should Win: One Battle After Another
The Academy Awards don’t have a tremendous track record when it comes to honouring the genuinely best movie of the year, but the Oscars might just make the very best decision possible if One Battle After Another takes home the best picture statuette. Thoughtful yet incendiary, romantic yet skeptical, absurd yet prescient, Anderson’s genre-bending film is a complete triumph.
Should’ve Been a Contender: It Was Just an Accident
The Academy had the perfect opportunity back in January to not only spotlight one of the year’s most powerful films but also stick it to the Iranian regime by nominating Jafar Panahi’s Tehran-set drama It Was Just an Accident for best picture. Expect the film to take home the award for best international feature instead, which is no small consolation prize.
Best Director
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Despite being one of the most acclaimed filmmakers of his time – his name resting somewhere between contemporaries Quentin Tarantino and Christopher Nolan as a director who inspires equal parts reverence and fanaticism – Anderson has never won an Academy Award. The Oscars will surely rectify this oversight come Sunday.
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
I’ve never completely understood the real distinction between best picture and best director, even if Hollywood’s army of producers (who take home the best pic statuette, should their film win) would tell you otherwise. However it breaks down, Anderson deserves this recognition more than anyone.
Should’ve Been a Contender: Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
A satire of capitalism and AI-tech gone mad, Park’s darkly hilarious thriller is as timely as it is a beautifully composed series of mind-melting images.
It is a crime of the highest cinematic order that the director’s name isn’t an option here for voters.
Best Actress
Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Jessie Buckley in a scene from Hamnet.Agata Grzybowska/The Associated Press
From the moment that Chloe Zhao’s tear-jerking Shakespeare (but not Shakespearean) drama Hamnet made its Canadian premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival in September, the best actress race felt as if it was Jessie Buckley’s to lose.
And indeed, the actress has been steadily collecting every precursor award available. Will the mixed reaction to her latest starring role, in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s Frankenstein riff The Bride, possibly dent her favour with voters? Not a chance.
Should Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Rose Byrne has been bewitching audiences for decades now, albeit mostly through mainstream comedy fare. Yet the Australian actress has never been afforded as tremendous a showcase for her talents as in Mary Bronstein’s deeply dark character drama. While the film is too intense and skin-crawling a proposition for most Academy voters, in a just world it would deliver Byrne a serious piece of golden hardware.
Should’ve Been a Contender: Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Forget Wicked: For Good: If the Academy wanted to spotlight a genuinely great musical, they had the opportunity to do so with Mona Fastvold’s beguiling historical epic The Testament of Ann Lee – especially its lead star. People, we’ve seen what happens when you cross Amanda Seyfried thanks to her role in The Housemaid. It didn’t have to turn out this way!
Best Actor
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Michael B. Jordan as Stack in Sinners.Warner Bros. Pictures/Supplied
Up until last month, it seemed as if the best actor award was Timothée Chalamet’s to lose. But after a series of high-profile misses – the Marty Supreme star walked away from both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards empty-handed – and one misconstrued comment about the value of the opera and ballet, I feel as if the energy has shifted to Michael B. Jordan.
The Sinners star also has the twin factor playing to his advantage: Oscars voters putting their stamp of endorsement on Jordan can feel as if they’re actually highlighting two performances instead of just one. Sorry, Marty.
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Timothée Chalamet in a scene from Marty Supreme.The Associated Press
Speaking of: While I’d be perfectly happy if the always-committed, always-fierce Jordan took home the best actor statuette, I was looking forward to Chalamet ending his Bugs Bunny-like hyper-speed awards-circuit run with nabbing the big piece of hardware that every actor is coveting.
Sure, the erstwhile ping-pong master might have edged his way into insufferable territory during the more manic stages of Marty Supreme’s campaign, but that doesn’t diminish his towering performance as a hustler for the ages.
Should’ve Been a Contender: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar’s thoughtful and ambitious drama might have likely worked no matter which performers they were able to collaborate with. Yet Joel Edgerton, the Australian actor who has always seemed more adventurous than his choice of projects, spills open the entirety of himself here, playing a turn-of-the-century logger in the Pacific Northwest into something more than a mere audience avatar.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Teyana Taylor as Perfidia in One Battle After Another.Warner Bros.
There is no shortage of live-wire performances on offer in Anderson’s film, yet it is Taylor who lords above everyone. Her performance as a take-no-prisoners revolutionary offers a seismic preview of a tremendous career that is just beginning. And the industry has recognized that fact and then some, with the actress scoring a major boost from the Golden Globes.
Should Win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Still, the best supporting actress race hasn’t been the easiest to decipher this season. Taylor will have strong competition from Amy Madigan (Weapons) and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners). And just because they’re sharing one category, it doesn’t mean that Sentimental Value co-stars Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas will cancel each other out, either. But this feels like it is destined to be Taylor’s night.
Should’ve Been a Contender: Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Holding her own against some of Hollywood’s most intimidating superstars, the young and relatively untested Chase Infiniti held her own and then some as the heart and soul of One Battle After Another. The only problem was that Warner Bros. decided, in a bid of we-make-the-rules hubris, to campaign Infiniti in the best actress category, which is insanely stacked this year with top-tier challengers, costing the actress any kind of nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Does Sean Penn need another Academy Award? No, he already has two (one for Mystic River, the other for Milk). Does Sean Penn even want another Academy Award? Not particularly, given that he seems to be rather over the awards-season exercises, opting to not even attend the Actor Awards. But will Sean Penn win another Academy Award for his electrifying, if extremely in-your-face, performance as One Battle After Another’s villain? Yes. Yes he will.
Should Win: Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
Stellan Skarsgård, left, and Elle Fanning in a scene from Sentimental Value.Kasper Tuxen/The Associated Press
If you asked me a month ago, I’d have said that Stellan Skarsgard was a lock for this category, given that awards voters were generally lukewarm on Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value but very high on giving the long-working Skarsgard a moment in the spotlight. With the big prize seemingly slipping through his fingers thanks to Penn’s ascendancy on the circuit, I find myself coming back around to a film that I’m not overly impressed by, but a performance that holds the entire thing from complete collapse. Even if, or especially because, Skarsgard is really the film’s lead actor, and not a supporting one.
Should’ve Been a Contender: Kevin O’Leary, Marty Supreme
Say what you will about Canada’s most infamous entrepreneur – and I’ve said quite a bit already. But the cold hard truth of the matter is that O’Leary delivers a cinematic scoundrel for the ages in Marty Supreme, one who is an altogether different brand of jerk than the one we’re used to seeing, or rather enduring, on television.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Chase Infiniti's name.