With its new voting protocol, the Polaris Music Prize is a whole new horse race

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This year’s Polaris Music Prize will be presented on Sept. 22 at a gala concert and ceremony at Toronto’s Massey Hall. Though the Quebec masked math-rock duo Angine de Poitrine is the favourite to win the $30,000 award, I predict Charlotte Cornfield, the Toronto singer-songwriter whose disarmingly honest Hurts Like Hell is hard not to adore, will prevail. But what do I know? What does anyone know?

More than we used to.

For two decades, it was a mug’s game trying to predict the winner of the annual prize, given to the best full-length Canadian album based on artistic merit. This year, however, the voting protocol has changed in a way that should make prognosticating easier. For the first time, everyone in the Polaris jury pool, not just a select few members, has a ballot for the final vote.

For Polaris’s first 20 years of existence, a jury composed of more than 200 journalists, broadcasters, bloggers, programmers, playlist creators, academics, podcasters and DJs participated in choosing the longlisted and shortlisted albums. But the ultimate winner was determined by just 11 jury members.

Those 11 voters were handpicked from the larger pool: one each specifically chosen to advocate for one of the 10 shortlisted albums, with one neutral member. Until the pandemic, the sequestered jury deliberated in person in Toronto on the night of the award gala, often in the Red Ritual Room used for fraternal ceremonies at what used to be the Masonic Temple (now the Concert Hall).

That music-nerd fandango could be overpowered by the most passionate voices, resulting in fringe preferences ruling the day. Mainstream artists, particularly in recent years, were overlooked in favour of sexier and edgier choices.

For example, Feist’s 2023 album Multitudes won a Juno Award for best adult alternative album, but lost the Polaris to Debby Friday for Good Luck. Other recent winners include Backxwash, Cadence Weapon, Pierre Kwenders, Jeremy Dutcher and last year’s prize-taker, Yves Jarvis.

With a bigger voting pool of 205, consensus now has a fighting chance in picking the year’s best album. Where in the past, an esoteric album might win on the strength of fierce championing, now a more mainstream record might very well prevail.

Amber Still, the prize’s executive director, told Billboard Canada that the change is a pilot initiative: “We will evaluate it at the end and then see if it will be permanent.”

For one year at least, then, it’s a horse race. Who do you have your money on from this year’s shortlist?

The frontrunners

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Angine de Poitrine, Vol. II: The polka-dotted drum-and-guitar pair are self-proclaimed aliens, but with their freaky, non-verbal schtick, they’re speaking Polaris’s language. The buzz is strong for the Canadian breakout act of the year.

Charlotte Cornfield, Hurts Like Hell: Long admired, the songwriter took a step up in class with her sixth album.

The sentimental favourite

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Beverly Glenn-Copeland, Laughter in Summer: Theatrical, choir-enhanced reworkings of previously released material. Honestly, it’s the weakest of the 10 shortlisted albums. But the late-career breakthrough that took place when the singer-songwriter was in his 70s was a feel-good story, and the public disclosure of a dementia diagnosis in 2024 only added to the compassion for a uniquely elegant and persevering artist.

The dark horses

Peaches, No Lube So Rude: The name actually undersells the raunchiness of the album from the legendary electro-punk provocateur. She’s the only nominee who won’t be performing at this year’s gala. Hopefully she’s taped a victory speech in case she wins − it’s probably a doozy.

Begonia, Fantasy Life: The effervescent Winnipegger and indie Adele has won the hearts of those in favour of soulful, tuneful pop with affirmative messaging.

Bibi Club, Amaro: This marks two consecutive years where the Montreal dream-pop duo made it to the shortlist. The record is flawless and in many other years – pre-Angine de Poitrine years − Bibi Club would be a top contender.

Poor post positions

Tanya Tagaq, Saputjiji: I believe Polaris came of age in 2015 when the Inuk throat singer won the prize for her avant-garde masterpiece Animism. And while it’s possible Tagaq’s Saputjiji is just as worthy, only one artist – Jeremy Dutcher − has won the award more than once.

Aquakultre, 1783: Historically inspired R&B from Lance Sampson, who musically marks the year that thousands of Black Loyalists arrived in Nova Scotia seeking a new life. If I were in the Polaris voting pool, I’d jump into Aquakultre with both feet. Not sure this concept album has the musical sophistication Polaris prefers, though.

The long shots

Rochelle Jordan, Through the Wall: Sleek house music and professional R&B. Jordan gets compared to Janet Jackson and Diana Ross, but where’s the hit song?

Les Louanges, Alouette!: Montreal Francophone Vincent Roberge makes imaginative, often charismatic alt-pop. This isn’t his year.