Toyota Prius
Auto makers may be pushing ahead with aggressive programs for gasoline-electric hybrids and battery-electric vehicles, but their success in the marketplace is largely out of the hands of car companies.
That's the conclusion of a new report from J.D. Power and Associates.
"It will be difficult to convince large numbers of consumers to switch from conventionally powered passenger vehicles to hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs)," says J.D. Power.
One or more scenarios needs to evolve for buyers to jump to alternative fuel technologies: 1) a significant increase in the global price of petroleum-based fuels by 2020; 2) a substantial breakthrough in green technologies, reducing costs and jolting consumer confidence; and, 3) coordinated government policies to encourage consumers to purchase these vehicles.
Now here's the bad news.
"Based on currently available information, none of these scenarios are believed to be likely during the next 10 years," says J.D. Power.
J.D. Power predicts combined global sales of alternative power trains will reach 5.2 million in 2020. Sounds like a lot, but it's not - just 7.3 per cent of the 70.9 million passenger vehicles forecast to be sold worldwide by that year.
The breakdown: hybrid and battery car sales in 2010 are forecast at 954,500 vehicles, or 2.2 per cent of the 44.7 million vehicles projected to be sold by the end of the year worldwide.
The report, entitled "Drive Green 2020: More Hope than Reality," is a thorough look at market trends, the regulatory environment, consumer sentiment and technology development in major auto markets.
"While considerable interest exists among governments, media and environmentalists in promoting HEVs and BEVs, consumers will ultimately decide whether these vehicles are commercially successful or not," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of automotive operations at J.D. Power. "Based on our research of consumer attitudes toward these technologies - and barring significant changes to public policy, including tax incentives and higher fuel economy standards - we don't anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade."
Potential buyers right now say they dislike of the look of most alternative power train vehicles, and also worry about reliability. They also are unhappy with power and performance and are anxious about driving range and recharging electric cars.
"Many consumers say they are concerned about the environment, but when they find out how much a green vehicle is going to cost, their altruistic inclination declines considerably," said Humphrey. "For example, among consumers in the U.S. who initially say they are interested in buying a hybrid vehicle, the number declines by some 50 per cent when they learn of the extra $5,000 (U.S.), on average, it would cost to acquire the vehicle."
In other words, hybrids and battery electric cars are years and years away from achieving mainstream acceptance. Of course, fuel prices could jump dramatically, governments could push through radical vehicle legislation and auto makers and suppliers could achieve "green" breakthrough.