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commodities

An employeee at the BHP Billiton copper mine at Escondida works amid sheets of copper.

A comeback in commodity prices is not on the horizon as global growth slows and China gears down its massive economic engine.

While forecasts vary over the extent of the pullback, most analysts now agree the global economy is sputtering, with little stimulus to propel it forward.

When prices of commodities such as copper and aluminum started falling in April, it was blamed on Europe's debt woes.

Since then, a weaker-than-anticipated recovery in the United States, and a slowdown in China's growth in particular, have kept commodities prices depressed as concerns mount over falling demand.

Those fears proved justified earlier this month when China reported a second-quarter growth slowdown, which is expected to hit those countries that rely on its economic muscle.

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"There is a high likelihood that growth will decelerate faster than we initially thought," UBS analysts said in a report released Thursday. "The slowdown in growth momentum will not just be limited to the developed world, but will also likely affect emerging markets. We should actually see the strongest growth deceleration in emerging Asia."

Still, investors are being told not to panic, even as worries mount over a possible double-dip recession.

In fact, some say the latest correction is a part of the economic cycle: Slower expansion is typical after a rebound peaks.

"Recoveries follow a well-rehearsed rhythm, with first burst of production growth typically very fast and the first momentum peak occurring between six to 15 months from output trough," Credit Suisse analysts wrote in a recent report.

That's of little comfort to investors who rode the resource wave out of the last recession - after being one of the sectors worst-hit when markets dropped - then watched prices fall again over the past three months.

Commodities such as copper, aluminum and nickel had fallen by about 15 to 25 per cent since hitting post-2008 highs in April, thanks to Europe's debt fiasco, signs of a weak U.S. recovery, and a cooling off of China's red-hot economy.

Stocks have also fallen in tandem for such companies as BHP Billiton Ltd, the world's largest miner, and Canada's largest, Teck Resources Ltd.

In its latest production report this week, BHP warned China's reduced consumption will dampen the firm's outlook. That's despite BHP reporting record iron ore production in the recent April-June quarter.

"Within China, measures introduced to reduce growth to more-sustainable levels means volatility in commodity end-demand is likely to persist," said BHP, which receives about 25 per cent of its revenues from China.

China consumes about 40 per cent of the key base metals used in construction, manufacturing, utilities and consumer goods. Europe and the United States account for much of the rest.

Reduced global demand for commodities was also highlighted by the Bank of Canada on Thursday as a threat to Canada's growth.

While the slowdown is sure to pinch profits for investors, corporations and governments around the world, some analysts see it as a welcome relief.

"Market sentiment has seen a dramatic change from fears of an overheating domestic economy and subsequent credit-tightening to demand-slowdown concerns," HSBC said.

"Our house view remains that this is merely a slowdown and not a meltdown."

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