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Calculated Risk has an interesting chart showing U.S. job losses (in percentage terms) during the 11 recessions since the end of the Second World War, and the subsequent recoveries. The interesting part is that the losses are aligned at the bottom, and you can see a trend: After a sharp drop, payrolls pick up at a similar pace, erasing the losses.

In the case of the current recession (or past recession if you're confident that it has begun to fade), the job losses in percentage terms have been particularly bad, at 6 per cent. The downturn has been particularly long, too, at about two years.

But if it follows the pattern of the previous recessions, and the bottom has more or less passed now that payrolls are picking up, will employment levels return to normal in about two years? It means generating about eight million jobs in just 24 months, a pace Calculated Risk doesn't think is unlikely.

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