Jean-François Tardif
Globe Investor's 2009 stock contest participants had a steep challenge: pick one stock that could not just weather - but excel - during what was expected to be a severe recession. And they had to pick the stock after the markets had already tumbled in the midst of a brutal credit crisis. Not an easy feat. This is where experience paid off. For the third consecutive year, Jean-François Tardif, now retired from Sprott Asset Management, led the pack, this time with his choice of Premium Brands Inc., which rose 91.6 per cent last year as the markets gamely shrugged off the recession and surged ahead
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THE WINNING STOCK PICK: PREMIUM BRANDS
Price appreciation: 70.6% / Total return: 91.6%
"Last year when I picked the stock, I was mostly interested in companies that could survive in an important recession and could continue to generate lots of free cash flow.
Premium Brands generated roughly $1.25 of free cash flow in 2008. I thought the company could generate close to the same amount for 2009. At close $8 a share one year ago, I was getting a 15-per-cent distribution yield plus a multiple expansion as the stock got hurt too much in the correction of 2008.
The company is a food distributor, mostly in western Canada, which I considered pretty safe in the recession. I felt that the reward potential was very attractive for what I considered the low risk of the business and the low valuation at the time."
Jean-Francois Tardif
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How the others fared
|
Price |
Total |
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|
Placing |
Contestant |
Stock Pick |
Ticker |
appreciation % |
return %* |
|
2 |
Lesley Scorgie |
Suncor Energy |
SU-T |
56.9 |
58.3 |
|
3 |
Garey Aitken |
Canadian Natural Resources |
CNQ-T |
55.9 |
57.0 |
|
4 |
Patrick McKeough |
Canadian Pacific Railway |
CP-T |
38.6 |
41.6 |
|
5 |
Kim Parlee |
Vermilion Energy Trust |
VET.UN-T |
28.7 |
39.4 |
|
6 |
Murray Soupcoff |
HBP COMEX Gold Bull+ E.T.F. |
HBU-T |
36.0 |
36.0 |
|
7 |
Adrian Mastracci |
Alcoa |
AA-N |
23.0 |
26.6 |
|
8 |
Kevin O'Leary |
Energy Transfer Partners LP |
ETP-N |
13.6 |
24.0 |
|
9 |
Murray Leith |
TimberWest Forest Corp. |
TWF.UN-T |
22.6 |
22.6 |
|
10 |
Team Churchill |
Pfizer |
PFE-N |
-11.8 |
-7.0 |
|
11 |
Monica Rizk |
Kinross Gold |
K-T |
-13.9 |
-13.5 |
|
12 |
Suraj Gupta |
American International Group |
AIG-N |
-18.0 |
-18.0 |
|
* All returns calculated to C$ for Dec. 31, 2008 to Dec. 31, 2009, including reinvested dividends |
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Source: Bloomberg |
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A look back at past winners
|
One-year |
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|
Year |
Player |
Firm at time of win |
Stock pick |
% gain |
|
2009 |
Jean-François Tardif |
Sprott Asset Management |
Premium Brands |
91.6% |
|
2008 |
Jean-François Tardif |
Sprott Asset Management |
Duvernay Oil |
218.8% |
|
2007 |
Jean-François Tardif |
Sprott Asset Management |
Rally Energy |
83.4% |
|
2006 |
Jason Snow |
Student |
Petrobank Energy |
99.1% |
|
2005 |
Emilia Loewen |
Wild card |
Shell Canada |
59.6% |
|
2004 |
Moshe Milevsky |
York University |
Forbes Medi-Tech |
179.0% |
|
2003 |
Moshe Milevsky |
York University |
Canadian Superior Energy |
117.3% |
|
2002 |
Moshe Milevsky |
York University |
Ketch Energy |
108.3% |
|
2001 |
Veronika Hirsch |
Hirsch Asset Management |
Gulf Canada |
61.6% |
|
2000 |
Plastic Santa |
Random Pick |
Denbury Res. |
179.2% |
|
1999 |
Steven Misener |
C.I. Fund Management |
BCE Emergis |
459.6% |
|
1998 |
Colleen Moorehead |
E*Trade Canada Inc. |
ATI Technologies |
110.9% |
|
1997 |
Patrick McKeough |
The Successful Investor |
Canada Bread |
84.0% |