It's been a turbulent last few years, but a sharp rebound in global tourism is pointing to a much smoother ride ahead for holiday travel carrier Transat A.T.
The World Tourism Organization now expects that 2010 will set a new record, with close to 930 million international tourist arrivals. That's up almost 6 per cent year over year and higher than the previous peak of 919 million in 2008.
While this growth has mostly been driven by emerging economies, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, Transat's destination markets also appear to be recovering nicely, noted Desjardins Securities analyst Martin Landry. July and August arrivals in the Caribbean are up about 3.3 per cent year over year, and even Europe is recovering modestly. Meanwhile, the World Tourism Organization expects overall international tourist arrivals to rise 4 to 5 per cent in 2011.
To reflect this faster-than-expected recovery, Mr. Landry raised his fiscal 2011 earnings per share forecast to $1.80 from $1.40 and his prediction for revenue growth to 5.5 per cent from 4.2 per cent.
Upside: Mr. Landry hiked his target price by $3 to $20 and maintained a "buy" rating.
--------
Investors could be in store for more volatile action than usual when Canada's big banks report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings at the start of December.
That's the word from CIBC World Markets Inc. analyst Robert Sedran, who notes that trading revenue forecasts have created a wide dispersion in Street estimates for the year. But while shares could zig-zag more than usual as the results pour out, "the lasting valuation impact of a beat or miss from this line should prove to be fleeting," he said.
Better trading revenue after a relatively weak performance the prior three months will be a key factor driving earnings higher, he suggests. His fourth-quarter earnings per share estimates imply a year-over-year growth rate for the big 5 banks of 5.3 per cent.
The other major earnings drivers should be much less volatile, he said. Loan losses should continue to decline, but at a slowing pace, as the credit environment continues to improve. "We expect lending net interest income to grow only modestly due to a combination of flat margins and little asset growth," he said.
-------
Autodesk Inc. has enjoyed another strong quarter, with year-over-year revenues climbing 14 per cent and non-GAAP earnings per share gaining 20 per cent. The results reflect "good execution and a bottoming in cyclical headwinds," said Canaccord Genuity analyst Richard Davis. He suggets more good news lies ahead and the stock could breach the $40 level as early as spring 2011.
Upside: Mr. Davis hiked his price target by $4 to $42 and maintained a "buy" rating.