Job seekers line-up at various booths at the National Job Fair and Training Expo in the Metro Toronto Convention Centre.Fernando Morales/The Globe and Mail
Jobless claims appear to be stabilizing in Canada, according to a Statistics Canada report released Thursday. The number of Canadians receiving federal jobless benefits in February was virtually unchanged from the previous month. Our employment situation seems to be considerably better than that in the United States, where jobless claims rose earlier this month, surprising economists.
The recent Labour Force Survey in Canada shows that, although there are still 253,000 fewer jobs than when the recession began in October, 2008, employment growth is continuing its slow march upward.
Still, there is a dark side to this cheery employment news. The jobs that are coming back are part-time and temporary. The latest data show that there is an ongoing loss of full-time and permanent jobs. By March, 2010, there were 47,800 more part-time jobs than when the recession began, but 300,000 full-time jobs were still missing.
The job numbers for March were partly fuelled by the Olympics and government stimulus projects, according to economist Armine Yalnizyan at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.
"When these one-time shots in the arm are gone, what kinds of jobs will emerge to fuel a sustainable recovery based on stable, balanced household budgets?" she says. "It's hard to see how you can build durable prosperity on a foundation of so much uncertainty."
Armine Yalnizyan, economist, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
Where are the jobs now? The fastest growth in new job opportunities is in term or contract positions. Over the past year, almost 120,000 of these kinds of jobs were created and they were to be found mainly in health care, manufacturing and business and building-support sectors. There were also 25,000 more seasonal jobs to be found in sectors such as culture and recreation as well as in trade and manufacturing.
Most of the new jobs have been driven by the public sector, which added 93,000 jobs in the past year. Ms. Yalnizyan worries that some public sector jobs may disappear as governments try to cut costs. Unfortunately, the private sector is not picking up the slack. It has shown essentially no net growth over the past year and the jobs it has created are often temporary.
Perhaps it's no surprise, then, that self-employment has been on the rise. Over the past year, 34,500 Canadians went into business for themselves. Most were solo, though, unincorporated and without paid help.
Although data on temporary labour trends in prior recessions are not available, it's clear that permanent jobs have been losing ground for some time.
"We do know that the rate of growth of temporary jobs in last 10 years has been growing at a far more rapid pace than permanent jobs," Ms. Yalnizyan says. "Very few people get in the door with a permanent job."
Many who have entered the workforce in the past decade could attest to the temporary nature of the jobs they've had. Several of my friends have moved from contract to contract, before finally landing a full-time gig several years into their careers.
After the 1990-1991 recession, it took seven years for full-time jobs to return to previous levels. Ms. Yalnizyan isn't sure how long it will take this time around.
Prepare for the future of employment It's not going to be an easy road to recovery for many Canadians.
"The probability of getting a decent job that supports a family is not very good right now," says Ms. Yalnizyan. "We're looking at a period of very flat wages."
Despite the tough times ahead, she expects that labour shortages will be felt in about 10 years and help the next generation of workers jumpstart their careers. It's not easy to predict, however, where the jobs will be. And even then, full-time jobs may not be as supportive, in terms benefits and pensions, as they have been historically.
For those entering colleges and universities now, Ms. Yalnizyan advises them to choose vocations based on their ability and passion. "Go for something you love doing. You're bound to have setbacks in life, but your energy, passion and enthusiasm are what's going to see you succeed."