The Canadian dollar fell below the 71 cents US level late Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 50-per-cent tariff on many Canadian goods, declaring that Canada has unfairly discriminated against American autos, alcohol and dairy products.
At 523 PM ET, the loonie was trading 70.96 cents US. It started the day near 71.40, but started trending lower against its U.S. counterpart after domestic data showed inflation easing, reducing expectations for Bank of Canada interest rate hikes this year. Prior to news about the additional tariff, the loonie was trading near 71.20.
All told, the Canadian dollar by late day wiped out more than five days of gains against its U.S. counterpart.
Canada’s annual inflation rate cooled to 2.8% in June from a 29-month high of 3.2% in May, as gasoline costs fell sharply. Measures of underlying inflation closely watched by the BoC also eased.
“The inflation came in softer data than expected, and it’s not just the headline,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. “The market feels confident of no rate hike until maybe the end of the year.”
Chances that the BoC would hike by December eased to 66% from 72% before the inflation report, swap market data showed.
The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, edged 0.4% lower to US$82.16 a barrel. Hopes of renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations were countered by Yemen’s Houthis declaring a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.
Speculators have raised bearish bets on the Canadian dollar to the highest level since January 2025, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. Non-commercial net short positions rose to 176,279 contracts as of July 14, up from 173,126 in the prior week.
Canadian government bond yields were mixed across a steeper curve. The 2-year eased 1.9 basis points to 2.850%, while it fell 7 basis points further below the U.S. equivalent to a gap of about 137 basis points in favor of the U.S. note.
Reuters, Globe staff