Trucks take workers to Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia's Papua province in 2017. Freeport declared force majeure at the mine after a deadly mudslide.Muhammad Yamin/Reuters
Shares of Freeport-McMoRan FCX-N tumbled Wednesday after the Phoenix-based miner said it expected a significant decline in third-quarter copper revenue due to an accident at its Indonesia mine earlier this month that will keep much of it shut down into the first half of 2026.
Freeport said in a release Wednesday that it expects consolidated sales of copper to be 4 per cent lower than its July estimates. Gold sales are expected to be 6 per cent lower than previous estimates.
Shares of Freeport closed down 16.95 per cent on Wednesday, to US$37.67 each.
Copper futures rose about 4 per cent, to US$4.83 per pound. Analysts at Jeffries said they expect prices to climb above US$5 per pound “imminently.“
On Sept. 8, about 800,000 metric tons of “wet material” entered the Grasberg Block Cave mine, moving rapidly to different levels and killing two workers, whose bodies were located on Saturday. Five others remain missing and search efforts are ongoing, the company said.
Freeport said the Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mines, which were unaffected by the flood, could restart operations by the middle of the fourth quarter of this year, with a phased restart of the Grasberg Block Cave mine beginning in the first half of 2026.
The Jeffries analysts noted that while the disruption was a “clear negative for the company and its equity value,” a guidance cut had been expected and some of it already reflected in Freeport’s share price. They added that the production stoppage in Indonesia should lead to higher prices for copper, which would benefit Freeport’s operations in the Americas.
Copper prices had risen to record highs this year, nudging toward US$6 per pound in late July before the Trump administration surprisingly exempted refined copper from a 50 per cent tariff. Copper futures quickly tumbled from US$5.59 to US$4.35 per pound on the announcement.
Copper is critical to global energy infrastructure, used in cords for electronic devices, transmission lines, batteries and LED lights. A global shift to cleaner energy technology, such as solar power, had already boosted demand, which is expected to keep growing as the development of artificial intelligence technology puts more of a strain on data centers and the energy grid.