Analysts have raised their annual gold price forecasts, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, with strong central-bank demand and economic uncertainty expected to offset risks from surging inflation and hawkish policy bets due to the Middle East conflict.
The metal’s broader rally is expected to resume once tensions ease, the poll found.
The survey of 31 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks returned a median gold forecast of US$4,916 per troy ounce for 2026, the highest annual forecast in Reuters polls dating back to 2012. The latest forecast compares with US$4,746.50 estimated three months ago.
A year ago, a similar poll showed an average forecast of just US$3,000 for 2026.
After a rapid record-setting rally that took gold prices to around US$5,595 an ounce at the end of January, prices have shed some 11 per cent since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February as investors rushed to raise liquidity.
“If the war can be brought to a peaceful conclusion then there is likely to be a relief rally, and there are underlying tailwinds that can keep prices supported. But the $5,500 level was too rich before and is likely to be so again,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell.
The metal’s role as an inflation hedge is currently being challenged by expectations of a hawkish monetary policy response to elevated energy prices. High interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding bullion.
“This is not a lasting development, matching our expectations that the war is unlikely to have a material and longer-lasting impact on global growth,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.
“Once expectations about more monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve return, we also expect investment demand to pick up again,” Menke said.
Central bank buying, Fed concerns
Analysts believe the factors driving gold, including robust central-bank buying, concerns about Federal Reserve independence, rising U.S. debt, and currency debasement, will continue to support the safe-haven asset in 2026.
“The motivation for central banks to acquire gold is arguably stronger than ever and events in the Middle East will only have amplified a sense of vulnerability to dollar assets. In short, gold looks positive but in a more measured way,” said independent analyst Ross Norman.
Analysts trim silver forecasts
On silver, analysts expect the metal to average US$78 per ounce in 2026, lower than the US$79.50 forecast three months ago.
Silver, impacted by both investment flows and industrial demand, surged a record 147 per cent in 2025 and extended its winning streak to an all-time high of US$121.64 on Jan. 29, before dropping sharply to trade at around US$75.
“Another attack on $100 might develop if the war comes to a close but that would likely only be brief. The market is in a structural industrial deficit despite slowing solar demand in 2026, and $80 seems like a reasonably workable sustainable peak,” said StoneX’s O’Connell.