HSBC on Tuesday became the latest global brokerage to slash its year-end target for the S&P 500 index below the 6000 mark, weighed down by slower U.S. economic growth and tariff-related pressure on corporate earnings.
The London-based brokerage cut its target to 5600 from 6700, which is in line with BofA Global Research’s forecast.
“Nearer term, the market should trade between recession and stagflation fears until the Fed cuts and tariff turmoil subsides,” said HSBC strategists in a note.
Global brokerages have been aggressively revising their targets for the benchmark index following Trump’s evolving tariff policy as they are expected to dent corporate America’s earnings and push the U.S. economy into a likely recession.
The widely tracked U.S. benchmark index has fallen 6% so far this year.
“Uncertainty should cap valuations given the lack of visibility to long-term earnings growth,” HSBC said, as it trimmed its earnings-per-share estimate for the index by 5% to $255, which is below the consensus expectations of $264.
The brokerage’s base case for this year is that the world’s largest economy will avoid both a recession and stagflation.
On a quarterly basis, it forecasts GDP growth of 1% for the year and expects the Federal Reserve to deliver its next rate cut in June.
Given the uncertain macro backdrop, HSBC prefers defensive stocks that include large caps and value stocks.
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