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Sam Sivarajan is a keynote speaker, behavioural scientist, independent wealth management consultant and author of four books on investing and decision-making.
As January begins, millions of Canadians are setting ambitious New Year’s resolutions. Gym memberships surge. Financial planning books fly off shelves. Yet by February, most of these intentions have quietly disappeared, replaced by the familiar patterns of the previous year. The statistics are sobering. Research shows that not even 10 per cent of people actually achieve their New Year’s goals.
The problem isn’t a lack of willpower. It’s simply that most people skip the most critical step in goal setting: preparing for the inevitable obstacles before they arrive. But there’s also a deeper issue at play. We are terrible at caring about our future selves.
As boxing legend Mike Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Whether it’s losing weight, saving more money or building an investment portfolio, the punch always comes. The question isn’t whether you’ll face challenges, but whether you’ll be ready when they hit.
UCLA psychologist Hal Hershfield’s groundbreaking research sheds light on why we struggle with long-term goals. Using imaging technology, Hershfield found that when people think about their future selves, their brain activity looks remarkably similar to when they think about complete strangers. In other words, we see our future selves as essentially other people – people we don’t know very well and, frankly, don’t care much about.
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This explains why New Year’s resolutions fail so spectacularly. When you resolve to save 15 per cent of your income this year, you’re essentially promising to deprive your current self to benefit a stranger. Your brain sees it as giving money away, not investing in yourself. The same applies to diet and exercise goals; you’re asking yourself to suffer now for someone you barely recognize.
Getting past this goal black hole requires two approaches. First, we need to strengthen our connection to our future selves. Second, we need implementation intentions – detailed “if-then” plans created before the punch in the mouth arrives.
Hershfield offers several practical strategies for connecting with your future self. In one study, participants who interacted with age-progressed images of themselves using virtual reality allocated twice as much money to retirement compared with those who saw only their current selves. Making your future self clear and tangible changes behaviour dramatically.
You don’t need virtual reality to achieve this effect. Simply writing a letter to your future self can strengthen the connection. Sit and write to yourself 10 years from now. What do you hope that person will thank you for? What decisions do you want them to look back on with pride? Then write a letter from that future self back to your current self. What advice would they give you? What would they wish you had known?
This isn’t just feel-good psychology. Studies confirm that people who strengthen the connection to their future selves are more likely to save money, make ethical decisions, exercise regularly and report higher life satisfaction. The future stops being abstract and becomes real and personal.
But even with this stronger connection, you still need to prepare for the punch in the mouth. That’s where implementation intentions come in. Think of Ulysses from Greek mythology sailing home from the Trojan War. He knew that the sirens’ song would be irresistible, and he didn’t trust his future self to resist. Instead, he had his crew tie him to the ship’s mast and plug their own ears with wax. This implementation intention, literally an if-then plan made in a calm rational state, saved him when he was in a high emotional state.
Research shows this approach can literally double the success rate of achieving goals. But it requires honest acknowledgment of where you’re likely to fail and specific plans for those moments.
For financial goals, this means going beyond simple target setting. An investor resolving to stay disciplined during market volatility needs to prepare for what comes next. Close your eyes and picture it: You open your investment statement and your portfolio is down 20 per cent. Really imagine that number on the page. What’s going through your mind? How does your stomach feel? What stories are you telling yourself about your financial future?
Now, while you’re still calm and rational, create your implementation intention: “When I see my portfolio down significantly, I will wait 48 hours before making any decisions. Then I will review my written investment goals and remember why I chose this long-term strategy. If I still feel compelled to act, I will then get a second opinion.”
The same principle works for all financial resolutions. For someone trying to reduce spending, the implementation intention might be: “When I’m tempted to make an unplanned purchase over $200, I will wait 24 hours and check my monthly spending tracker. If the purchase still makes sense and fits my budget, I’ll buy it then.”
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For building an emergency fund: “When unexpected expenses arise and I’m tempted to skip my automatic transfer to my savings account, I will first review what expenses I can cut this month before touching my savings goal.”
Another powerful strategy from Hershfield’s work involves reframing sacrifices so they feel less painful. In one study, participants were four times more likely to sign up for an automatic savings program when told they’d be saving $5 a day rather than $150 a month – even though it’s the same amount. The daily framing made the sacrifice feel manageable rather than overwhelming.
Apply this to your own goals. Instead of “lose 20 pounds this year,” think “make one healthy meal choice each day.” Instead of “max out my RRSP,” think “automatically transfer $50 each week.” The behaviour changes dramatically when sacrifices feel small and achievable.
The power of these approaches was demonstrated during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic crash. Investors who had detailed behavioural plans – specific commitments about what they would do when markets fell – were far more likely to stay the course. Those without often sold at the bottom, locking in losses they never recovered from.
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The key is specificity. “I’ll stay disciplined” isn’t an implementation intention. It’s a hope. A real implementation intention identifies the exact trigger (portfolio down 15 per cent), the emotional state you’ll experience (fear, urgency to act), and the specific action you’ll take instead (wait, review goals, consult adviser).
As we enter 2026, financial markets remain unpredictable. Interest rates, inflation, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty create plenty of potential punches in the mouth for investors. Those who succeed won’t be the ones with the best intentions – they’ll be the ones who prepared for failure before it arrived and who genuinely connected with the person they’ll become.
What obstacles could derail your financial goals this year? More fundamentally, what would your future self – the one living in 2036 –want you to do right now? If you answer those questions honestly, write to that future person and create detailed plans for each obstacle you might face, your chances of success don’t just improve marginally – they double.
The philosopher Seneca understood this truth 2,000 years ago when he wrote, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” But Hershfield’s research adds a crucial insight: Luck also requires seeing your future self not as a stranger, but as the person you’re becoming. This New Year, don’t just set financial goals. Connect with who you’ll be in 10 years. Then tie yourself to the mast before the sirens start singing.
In financial planning, as in life, success isn’t determined by the strength of your resolutions. It’s determined by how well you prepared to meet your future self, and how ready you were when reality punched you in the mouth.