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Hello Trade Secrets readers!
I’m Jon Erlichman, here with some fresh market musings and our weekly update on Trade Off, The Globe and Mail’s free online stock picking contest. Sign up to receive this content in your inbox as the Trade Secrets newsletter.
I hope you’re enjoying the holiday season and gearing up for an exciting year ahead. Speaking of which, we’ve had a busy few weeks with Trade Off.
The Leaderboard
So, which smart trader will take the $5,000 grand prize? That may depend on whether the winning trends this year carry over into 2026. Two themes stand out when describing our contest leaders so far: metals and machines. As we’ll discuss below, it’s been a great year for gold, not to mention other metals. And, of course, it has once again been a remarkable stretch for tech investors. That raises an important question about how these trends may evolve in the months ahead.
This Week in Markets
Canada’s stock market has delivered a year for the record books. One of its strongest annual returns in decades was driven by the materials sector, with gold and silver hitting all-time highs. That outperformance matters, because commodities play an outsize role in Canada’s equity market compared with the United States, making global trends in metals and energy especially influential for domestic investors.
Can that momentum persist into 2026?
Let’s start with gold. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty, elevated government debt and steady buying by central banks have supported prices. Strategists at Goldman Sachs now see a path toward $4,900 an ounce, citing strong demand even as interest rate expectations evolve.
Silver’s rally has been fuelled in part by a global supply crunch, as limited new production collides with rising industrial demand. Similar constraints are emerging across key commodities, from copper to uranium – materials that sit at the centre of electrification, defence and energy transition spending.
That backdrop has revived talk of a commodity supercycle. Historically, such periods have coincided with capital rotating away from growth sectors such as technology. But this one may be different.
Today, technology itself, particularly the rapid build-out of AI infrastructure and data centres, is driving surging demand for electricity, fuel and raw materials. In that sense, commodities may not be competing with tech for capital, but benefiting directly from it.
For investors, the question is not whether tech or commodities will win, but how tightly the two are now intertwined, and whether that link can extend Canada’s materials-led momentum into the next phase of the cycle.
Trade Secret tips
If you’re trying to get your head around the case for investing in tech giants such as Alphabet and Nvidia after the run-ups they’ve already enjoyed, you might gain some perspective from a successful money manager.
Meanwhile, if you consider yourself a value investor, check out these insights from a market pro who has been honing his craft for decades.
Finally, if you’re more of a balanced portfolio investor, when’s the last time you checked how balanced your holdings really are? Some timely perspective here.
Looking forward to cheering you and your portfolio on in 2026.
Happy New Year,
Jon
Jon Erlichman is the founder of Ticker Take on YouTube and a contributor to BNN Bloomberg.