Betting against the S&P 500 has been a bad look for top-paid forecasters, so the easy move is to predict more upside.GETTY IMAGES
Welcome to 2026! Are you ready to trade?
I’m Jon Erlichman, here with some fresh market musings and our weekly update on Trade Off, The Globe and Mail’s free online stock picking contest. Sign up to receive this content in your inbox as the Trade Secrets newsletter.
If you’re looking for some fresh momentum in our contest, January is known to be a solid month for stocks (more on that below).
This week, we’ll explore the outlook for equities this year and help you identify value opportunities in the market! But first, let’s jump into a competition recap.
The Leaderboard
We start the year with a leaderboard dominated by metals momentum. Big bets on gold and silver stocks helped turbocharge portfolios in our first few weeks. With volatility rising, can that outperformance continue?
And what about AI? Nvidia is a dominant holding among contest participants. Of course, it had another stellar year in 2025. We’ll see if tech can sideline some of the bullion believers. Or perhaps a new sector will strongly emerge this month.
This Week in Markets
We’ve entered an interesting stretch in this bull market. While some investors fear the best days are behind us, most pros remain reluctant to take a bearish stand.
As an example, Bloomberg surveyed more than 20 Wall Street strategists about where they see the U.S. stock market finishing this year. Every single one predicted a higher finish in 2026.
After advancing more than 90 per cent since its 2022 lows, betting against the S&P 500 has been a bad look for top-paid forecasters. So the easy move is to predict more upside. The same is arguably true for TSX trackers, given the Canadian market is coming off its best year since 2009.
The question is whether investors should feel guilty for wanting more. I recently spoke with Drew Pettit, director of U.S. Equity Strategy at Citi. He noted that in a bull market, the discomfort that stems from big gains can tempt investors to shift into other areas, only to watch those new stock picks underperform.
For 2026, he believes investors can still take risks if they are selective. Instead of shifting to underperforming stocks in the middle of the market, he’s focusing on two kinds of growth areas: fast-growing companies that are investing wisely to build their empires, and cyclical businesses that are just starting to accelerate. Two stocks Mr. Pettit highlighted are Uber (on the growth side) and CoStar Group (on the cyclical side).
Trade Secret tips
As we jump into a new month of trading, why does January tend to be a good month for stocks? Some context here.
If your resolution for the new year is to become a better investor, look for value and momentum opportunities with The Globe’s guide to the top 250 stocks in Canada.
You can also drill down into a specific stock with those characteristics: Constellation Software.
Finally, on the subject of resolutions, it’s always helpful to make sure you and your financial adviser are on the same page. Some valuable perspective here.
Enjoy the rest of the trading week!
Jon
Jon Erlichman is the founder of Ticker Take on YouTube and a contributor to BNN Bloomberg.