Markets Monday: North American stock indexes swing positive, oil prices fall, after Trump suggests war nearing end

Market update:

• All three U.S. indexes, as well as the TSX, swung into the green in the final hour of trading after a CBS News tweet quoted U.S. President Donald Trump as saying the war with Iran isn’t far from reaching its end. He offered similar comments to reporters in a press conference this evening.
• WTI oil futures turned lower in post settlement trade after the Trump tweet. In early Asian trading, they were down US$7.23, or ⁠7.6%, at US$87.54 ​a barrel. The contract ‌hit a session high ​of US$119.48 earlier on Monday.
• The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended up 105.6 points, or 0.3%, at 33,189.32, after touching its lowest intraday level since Feb. 6. The technology sector gained 2.4%, with shares of electronic equipment firm Celestica ‌adding 7.1%. The materials group was ​up 0.7% as copper prices climbed, while energy ended 0.4% higher. Five of the 10 major sectors ended lower, including financials, which lost ​0.6%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 239.25 points, or 0.50%, to 47,740.80, the S&P 500 gained 55.97 points, or 0.83%, to 6,795.99 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 308.27 points, or 1.38%, to 22,695.95.
• U.S. Treasury yields fell on the Trump comments. The benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield fell 3 basis points by late afternoon to 4.102% after earlier trading at 4.216%, the highest since Feb. 9.

03/09/26 18:07

Trump says U.S. operation in Iran ahead of initial timeline

U.S. President ⁠Donald Trump, in a press conference late Monday, ​told ‌reporters the ‌United ​States ‌military operation ​in Iran ⁠is “ahead ⁠of ​our initial timeline by ⁠a lot.”

He ​said ‌the U.S. ​could ‌declare ​its military campaign ⁠against ⁠Iran ​a success, but the ⁠U.S. is ⁠going to ​go ⁠further.

He also said that the U.S. is ‌waiving ​certain oil-related ⁠sanctions ⁠as ​a way to ensure adequate ⁠oil supply. He was not specific, but the United States last week ⁠issued a temporary, 30-day ​waiver to allow for ⁠the sale of Russian oil currently ‌stranded at sea to India ​to alleviate pressure on the global oil market.

At the news conference at his Doral golf club, Trump also said oil prices have ‌not ​spiked ‌as much as he ​had feared.

- Reuters

03/09/26 17:47

Constellation says it’s ‘well-positioned’ to tackle AI disruption in software industry

- Joe Castaldo

Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T) said Monday it can weather the disruption caused by artificial intelligence as it seeks to allay investor fears that AI will erode the value of traditional software products. The company also said it will acquire minority stakes in technology companies, in addition to its historical practice of purchasing them outright.

Constellation reported early Monday that its fourth-quarter revenue grew 18 per cent to US$3.2-billion compared to the same period in 2024. Revenue for the full year rose 15 per cent to US$11.6-billion.

Organic growth, however, slowed to 2 per cent from 3 per cent.

Shares closed up 0.4 per cent.

Read my story here on today’s earnings and conference call.

03/09/26 16:52

U.S. considering selling oil from strategic reserve

U.S. Energy Secretary ⁠Chris ​Wright said on Monday ​that ‌the U.S. is considering coordinating ‌sales ​of ‌oil ​from the ⁠U.S. ⁠Strategic Petroleum ​Reserve with releases from other countries ⁠as prices soar during the ⁠war ​on Iran.

Wright also said the U.S. has “some other options” on allowing more sales ​of Russian oil held in ‌tankers on the water in Asia. Late last week, for instance, Washington issued a 30-day waiver allowing the sale of Russian crude currently stranded at sea to continue to India.

Earlier Monday, G7 nations said they were prepared to implement “necessary measures” in response to surging global oil prices ⁠but stopped ​short of committing to release emergency reserves. Read more from the Globe’s Eric Reguly here.

- Reuters

03/09/26 16:20

A wild ride for oil

Oil futures were last down about 4% in post-settlement trade after one of their most volatile days ever.

03/09/26 15:39

Trump reportedly says U.S. ‘very far’ ahead of estimated time frame

The tweet from CBS News’ senior White House correspondent linked to the late rally in stocks:

03/09/26 15:10

Trump reviews options to curb energy prices

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to review as early as Monday a set of options to tame oil prices, according to two people familiar ⁠with the ​matter.

The effort reflects White House worries that the surge in oil prices will hurt U.S. businesses and consumers ahead of the November midterm elections when Trump’s fellow Republicans are hoping to retain control of Congress. U.S. officials in Washington have been discussing with counterparts from the Group of Seven major economies a possible joint release of crude oil from strategic reserves ​as one of several measures currently under discussion, the sources said.

Other options include ‌restricting U.S. exports, intervening in oil futures markets, waiving some federal taxes and lifting requirements under a U.S. law called the Jones Act that domestic fuel move only on U.S.-flagged ships, among others, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Administration officials are also exercising diplomatic pressure on Gulf allies to help restore production and shipping of oil, a third source told Reuters.

The White House added a Trump press ‌conference at 5:30 ​p.m. to his schedule on Monday, but ‌provided no details on whether he will make any announcements.

Analysts have said that U.S. policy options will have little sway over ​global oil markets as long as the fighting blocks Middle East oil ⁠exports accounting for a fifth of global supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

- Reuters

03/09/26 14:55

The key thing for investors right now: be diversified

- Rob Carrick

Stocks have weakened over the last several days, but the declines have been orderly and panic-freer. Canada’s benchmark S&P/TSX composite index was still up about 2 per cent for the year and the S&P 500 was off about 2.7 per cent. Nothing too bad has happened in stocks – so far.

If you haven’t done so already, ensure you’re well diversified in your stock market exposure, and that you have bonds, guaranteed investment certificates or cash on hand to offset falling stocks. Bonds look vulnerable to declines of their own right now. But the worst of bonds is far better than the worst of stocks.

Read my full column here on an action plan for mortgages, stocks and other wartime personal finance risks.

03/09/26 13:55

Airline shares battered as Iran war pushes oil above US$100

Many airline stocks were hammered on Monday, while some airfares soared internationally as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran sent oil prices surging, sparking fears of a deep travel slump and the potential ⁠for the ​widespread grounding of planes.

Some jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the conflict, piling pressure on carriers already navigating tight airspace as pilots reroute to avoid the Middle East ​conflict and thousands of stranded passengers try to leave the region.

“Absent near-term relief, airlines around ‌the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircraft while some of the industry’s financially weakest carriers could halt operations,” Deutsche analysts said in a note to clients.

In Asia, airline shares tumbled, with the worst-hit, including Korean Air Lines, which slid 8.6%, Air New Zealand down 7.8% and Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific which dropped 5%.

In Europe, Air France KLM, British Airways-owner IAG, Wizz Air and Lufthansa fell between 2.5% and 6% in morning trade.

Major U.S. airlines ‌shares were down ​about 1% to 5% in afternoon trading with ‌JetBlue Airways down 5.35% followed by American Airlines down 3.44%.

Air Canada (AC-T) was down around 1% at midday but had been down more earlier in the session.

Underscoring that pain on the consumer side were jumps in ticket prices. Direct flights ​from Seoul to London on March 11 with Korean Air Lines, for example, leapt ⁠to $4,359, from $564 seven days earlier, according to Google Flights data.

“The issue for the airlines now is that travel demand may ⁠be curtailed as costs become prohibitive for leisure travelers and as some companies start to limit business travel due to the uncertain outlook,” said Lorraine Tan, director of equity research, Asia ​at Morningstar.

The impact of high airfares could limit travel demand for much of 2026, Tan added.

Fuel is the second-largest expense for air carriers after labor, typically accounting for a fifth to a quarter of operating expenses. Some major Asian and European airlines have oil hedging in place, but U.S. airlines largely stopped the practice over the last two decades.

“We assume the airlines are able to recapture a portion of the spike in fuel prices, but it’s hard to envision margin expansion this year ⁠barring a rapid decline in energy prices,” said Tom Fitzgerald, TD Cowen vice president of equity research on six major U.S. airlines.

High prices could have severe implications for the industry.

“If crude is rising 20%, jet fuel is rising several times more as it is even more scarce, adding significant cost to operations together with crew resources, which are stretched due to longer flying times when airspace is closed,” said Subhas Menon, head of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines.

The Deutsche analysts noted that a sharp spike in jet fuel costs ⁠in 2005 in the aftermath of hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in widespread and significant ​damage to the industry, including major airlines Delta and Northwest filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy that year.

- Reuters, Globe staff

03/09/26 13:37

Yardeni now sees higher odds of a ‘market meltdown’

- Darcy Keith

Veteran Wall Street strategist and frequent bull Ed Yardeni has ratcheted up the odds that he is assigning to a U.S. market meltdown as a result of the Middle East conflict.

Here are some highlights of his note to clients today:

“We are moving fast to update the subjective probabilities for our three economic and stock market scenarios. Our base-case scenario remains the Roaring 2020s, with our subjective probability unchanged at 60%. We are lowering the Meltup scenario from 20% to 5% and increasing the Meltdown scenario (which now includes a 1970s-style stagflation) from 20% to 35%. The timeframe is over the rest of this year. Over the rest of the decade, we would narrow the scenarios to two: the Roaring 2020s at 85% and the Stagflating 1970s Redux at 15%.”

“As we’ve previously observed, oil price spikes have coincided with recessions and bear markets. The one exception was the 2022 spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There was no recession, but there was a bear market. That experience confirmed the resilience of the U.S. economy and the limited impact of oil prices on it. The same should hold today with the latest oil price spike, though we are more inclined to expect a 10%-15% correction in the stock market than a bear market, which we can’t rule out under the circumstances.”

“Our relatively optimistic view assumes that the war will last a few more weeks and that the U.S. economy and corporate earnings will prove resilient once again. The U.S. economy’s energy intensity—total energy consumption per unit of real GDP—has dropped sharply over the years. It is down 70% from 1950 through 2024 and 62% from 1979 through 2024.”

“We can’t rule out a bear market if investors start to anticipate a Stagflating 1970s Redux scenario. There were two oil shocks back then. In October 1973, Arab members of OPEC imposed an embargo against the US and other nations supporting Israel during the Yom Kippur War. Crude oil prices quadrupled, jumping from approximately $3 to nearly $12 per barrel in just a few months. The result was ‘stagflation’ — the rare and painful combination of stagnant economic growth with high unemployment and rising inflation. It brought long lines at gas stations, fuel rationing, and the first major realization of US vulnerability to foreign energy dependence. The second crisis followed the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which severely disrupted global oil supplies. Prices more than doubled. This shock pushed an already fragile economy further into stagflation. Both crises triggered two recessions during the 1970s.”

03/09/26 13:04

Lines in the sand for equity markets

- Scott Barlow

Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel has diagnosed investors with wild mood swings recently, gravitating from extreme greed to extreme fear. Mr. Emanuel is watching four “fear lines” – charts that might signal a sustained market downturn if they collapse.

Mr. Emanuel cites boom/bust patterns in Oracle Corp., silver, software, the KOSPI, alternative investments, oil, flash memory and real estate services companies as evidence of excessive investor twitchiness. He is watching for charts involving credit, copper, the trade weighted U.S. dollar and software (the iShares North American Tech-Software ETF, IGV-A) for signs of market participants throwing in the towel.

The strategist notes that option activity is more bearish than seen in current cycle mini-panics which all proved to be buying opportunities. Geopolitical uncertainty is the cause of the unease but this is offset by positive factors like modest interest rates and no signs of recession on the horizon.

Mr. Emanuel has lines in the sand for each of his charts – levels that if broken could signal a deeper selloff. For credit he is watching two indicators: investment grade corporate bond spreads (he is watching for a breach to above 170 basis points here, signaling balance sheet concerns ) and, secondly, high yield credit default swaps (a rise above 350 basis points would indicate solvency-related stresses).

For copper, trading in the US$5.80 per pound range, the strategist would become concerned if spot prices fall below US$5.50 and stayed there as a sign markets were worried about global growth. (The following chart is May copper futures, which is similar to spot right now.)

The trade weighted U.S. dollar index is near 99 now and a jump to 100.5 would signal to Mr. Emanuel that investors were anxious enough to move towards alleged safe havens.

The final chart, plotting the iShares North American Tech-Software ETF, would disturb him if it dropped below its 200-week moving average.

The investment grade bond spread can be found on the Federal Reserve data site here. The high yield CDS is tough to find.

03/09/26 11:42

Hims shares jump on deal to offer Novo’s Wegovy, Ozempic on its platform

Hims & Hers’ (HIMS-N) shares were up over 40% on Monday, after Novo Nordisk (NVO-N) agreed to sell its blockbuster Wegovy and Ozempic drugs ⁠through ​the telehealth firm’s platform, signaling an end to the dispute between the two companies.

The deal lands roughly a month after Novo filed a patent-infringement lawsuit against Hims, following the ​U.S. telehealth firm’s launch, and then ‌cancellation, of a US$49 copy of Novo’s obesity pill.

Analysts said the development was clearly positive for Hims, which was otherwise facing the prospect of a prolonged and costly legal battle.

“We believe that Novo’s case ‌against ​HIMS was strong, and this ‌announcement also reduces risk related to potential FDA ​and DOJ enforcement actions against HIMS,” BTIG ⁠analyst David Larsen wrote in a note.

Hims shares were ⁠up 41.1 per cent at US$22.2 midday, while U.S.-listed shares of Novo were up ​2.8 per cent.

- Reuters

03/09/26 11:42

RBC analyst poll points to sectors most, and least, exposed to the Middle East conflict

- Darcy Keith

Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. Equity Strategy for RBC Capital Markets, has shared some results of a short survey the bank did with its U.S. equity analysts after the U.S./Israeli strikes against Iran. It helpfully points to some sectors that are more shielded from today’s headlines than others.

The three main takeaways:

“ First, fundamental risks to the U.S. equity market from a worsening of the conflict are seen as concentrated in certain parts of the U.S. equity market, and low overall. To the extent this reflects the bottom-up view of the equity community more broadly, we think it helps explain why U.S. equities stayed relatively resilient last week.”

“Second, Communication Services, Financials, Health Care, and Utilities stand out as some of the most insulated sectors from a worsening of the conflict in the survey. On the flip side, Consumer Staples and Materials were seen as being most impacted, though it should be noted that their answers were mostly ‘some/a decent amount’ as opposed to ‘a lot’ on all three of the questions that we asked. Note that we have been overweight Communication Services, Financials, and Health Care in 2026 within the S&P 500, views in place before tensions started to rise in the region, and the takeaways from our survey add to our constructive stance on them. We have also been overweight Materials and see our survey work as a challenge to that view.”

“Third, inflation and consumer confidence/sentiment were the top knock-on effects highlighted by our analysts.”

03/09/26 11:07

TSX falls 1% as Middle East turmoil revives inflation jitters

Canada’s main stock index hit a more than three-week low in a broad-based selloff on Monday, as risk sentiment ⁠took a ​hit globally after escalating tensions in the Middle East sent crude prices surging, intensifying inflation concerns.

At 11:07 a.m. ⁠ET, ​the S&P/TSX ⁠composite index ‌was down 334.66 points, or 1.01 per cent, at 32,748.06 after falling more than 2 per cent earlier in the ‌session, in line with a more than 1-per-cent decline across major indexes on Wall Street.

Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father as supreme leader, signaling that hardliners remain firmly in charge ‌and ​the war, which entered ‌its second week, could last longer than previously expected.

The escalating ​turmoil sent crude oil prices to ⁠more than $119 a barrel, hitting levels not seen since ⁠mid-2022, as major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruption ​rattled markets.

“The key issue is how long the price shock lasts and how much damage it inflicts before easing as a prolonged spike in energy costs could revive inflation pressures and even raise the risk ⁠of stagflation,” said Allan Small, senior investment advisor at Allan Small Financial Group with iA Private Wealth.

Canada’s benchmark stock index has fallen more than 6% from record highs reached just a week ago, as fears that a prolonged Middle ⁠East conflict and rising crude prices could ​fuel global inflation pressured risk assets.

- Reuters

03/09/26 09:47

Xenon stock soars as B.C. drug developer reports strong results for epilepsy treatment

- Sean Silcoff

Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (XENE-Q) generated positive results from a critical late-stage human trial for its epilepsy treatment and will apply later this year to market its drug in the U.S., the B.C. drug developer said Monday.

The stock was up more than 44 per cent in early trading on the Nasdaq.

The company said patients taking a 25 mg dose of its drug, called azetukalner, over a 12 week trial, saw a 53.2-per-cent reduction in seizures, which was 42.7 percentage points better than those on a placebo. Nearly 55 per cent of patients on the pill experienced a reduction in seizure activity of more than half. The numbers improved on Xenon’s last human trial, reported in 2021, which saw patient seizures on the 25 mg pill drop by 52.8 per cent over an eight-week span, which was 34.6 percentage points more than people taking a placebo. Of those, 54.5 per cent had at least a 50-per-cent reduction in monthly seizure frequency.

“We are very happy to announce these data for azetukalner, which exceeded expectations and, to our knowledge, show the highest placebo-adjusted efficacy ever observed in a pivotal epilepsy study,” Ian Mortimer, Xenon’s chief executive officer, said in a release.

Read more: Here

03/09/26 09:44

Don’t panic, urges David Rosenberg, who suggests similar oil price spikes of the past didn’t last long

- Darcy Keith

Economist David Rosenberg is pleading with his clients this morning not to panic. He points out that similar event-driving oil price moves of the past never last all that long. That’s because such a run up in the oil price should quickly erode demand. And Mr. Rosenberg is also of the belief that this conflict won’t be a prolonged one.

From his Breakfast with Dave newsletter:

“This is a huge shock, to be sure, but it’s not as if it is unprecedented. There was another war, from August 1990 under Operation Desert Shield to what culminated in Operation Desert Storm, which ended in February 1991, when WTI surged from $16 per barrel to $40 per barrel for a total increase of 150 per cent. That was over a six-month period, otherwise known as Iraq War I. If we replicate that move now with Iran, we would be talking about what everyone is now talking about, which is $140 per barrel. Yes, that is scary. But the likelihood is that the current situation will last weeks, not months.”

“But even if this conflict ends up getting measured in months, as was the case in 1990-1991, remember that what we ended up with back then was a mild recession, a 20-per-cent bear market in the S&P 500 (though valuations were less extreme at that time), and within a year, everyone pretty well forgot about it. Within three months after Operation Desert Storm ended, the oil price was back to $20 per barrel and then to $15 per barrel three years later. The inflation rate was just over 4.0 per cent before Iraq War I to 6.3 per cent at the peak — and then a year after the war ended, all the way down to 2.8 per cent. The Fed resumed cutting rates, and the Treasury market delivered splendid positive returns. While the war dominated the headlines for a while, past the winter of 1991, we moved on to other things (like the S&L crisis, the credit crunch, and the jobless recovery).”

“That then brings me to the next point. There was one other time in history the oil price tested (even breached) $140 per barrel, and that was back in July 2008. From the January 2007 low of $52 per barrel to the peak, the move represented a near tripling in the oil price in a year-and-a half. The inflation rate soared from just over 2.0 per cent to 5.6 per cent at the oil price peak. A year later, WTI was back down to $60 per barrel, and inflation swung to negative 2.1 per cent. Imagine that — in a year, from $145 on oil to $60 and near-6-per-cent inflation to 2-per-cent deflation. Tell me if you remember still talking about an oil crisis and inflation in the summer of 2009.”

“So, keep your powder dry, your wits about you. … These event-driven oil price spikes never last and merely end up sowing the seeds for their own demise due to the demand destruction that lies in their wake.”

03/09/26 09:35

North American stock indexes open lower as soaring crude prices fan inflation worries

North America’s main ‌indexes opened lower on Monday, ⁠as ​soaring oil prices heightened inflation worries, with ​the ‌Middle East conflict entering its tenth day.

​Canada’s main ‌stock index was led by declines in ​the ‌materials and consumer discretionary sectors, ‌as ​risk sentiment ‌took ​a hit.

At 9:31 a.m. ⁠ET, ​the S&P/TSX ⁠composite index ‌was down 1.23 per cent ​at 32676.84 points.

The ‌Dow ​Jones ‌Industrial ​Average fell 130.3 ⁠points, or 0.27 per cent, to 47,371.28. The S&P 500 fell 40.2 points, or ⁠0.60 per cent, to 6,699.8, while ⁠the ​Nasdaq Composite dropped 203.6 ⁠points, or 0.91 per cent, ‌to 22,184.047 at the ​opening bell.

- Reuters

03/09/26 09:22

Markets now fully pricing in a BoC rate hike later this year on oil-fueled inflation jitters

- Darcy Keith

Money markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rate hike by the Bank of Canada by October of this year.

Several central banks across the globe are coming under pressure to lift interest rates amid fears the spiking price of crude will soon filter into higher energy prices for consumers, leading to another breakout of inflation. Hiking rates is the major weapon at their disposal to try to beat down inflation, even though it risks dragging down overall economic growth rates.

Implied rate probabilities in overnight index swap markets indicate the Bank of Canada will likely keep rates on hold for the next two meetings, on March 18 and April 29. But odds go to up a near 100 per cent probability of a rate hike by the October 28 meeting.

The Bank of Canada’s current overnight rate is 2.25 per cent. While the bank only moves the overnight rate in quarter-point increments, markets price in a much less rigid rate when setting bets on future policy rates. Right now, traders are positioned for an overnight rate of 2.55 per cent at the bank’s last central policy meeting on Dec. 9.

These market bets for rate moves are always changing as new developments unfold. A quick resolution to the Middle East conflict could turnaround these rate probabilities very quickly.

But the latest thinking in money markets is the bank will be forced to tighten policy later this year, marking a dramatic turnaround from prior to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, when markets were pricing in odds the next move in the overnight rate will be lower.

Reflecting all this, U.S. and Canadian bond yields are higher again today, in the 5 to 7 basis points range across the curve. The Canada 5-year yield, closely watched for its influence on fixed mortgage rates, is at the highest level of this year, at just above 3 per cent. It likely won’t be long before there’s upward pressure on fixed mortgage pricing.

03/09/26 08:43

The most oversold and overbought stocks on the TSX

- Scott Barlow

The S&P/TSX Composite dropped 3.6 per cent for the trading week ending with Friday’s close and is now 5.0 per cent higher for 2026, including dividends. The benchmark’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 46 is very close to the midpoint of the oversold buy signal of 30 and the overbought, technically vulnerable sell signal of 70.

There are six companies with attractive RSIs below the 30 buy signal. Allied Properties REIT is the most oversold company followed by Pet Valu Holdings Ltd., Gildan Activewear Inc., BRP Inc., Algonquin Power and Utilities Corp. and IA Financial Corp Inc.

The list of overbought TSX stocks is a lot smaller this week at seven members. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is unsurprisingly the most overbought stock in the index on higher energy prices. Atco Ltd. is next then Paramount Resources Ltd., Peyto Explorations and Development Corp., Quebecor Inc., Hydro One Ltd. and Dye and Durham Ltd.

Read the full report: Here

03/09/26 07:54

Iran conflict has potential silver lining for Canadian economy: BMO rates and macro strategist

- Scott Barlow

BMO Canadian rates and macro strategist Benjamin Reitzes sees European leaders taking notice on unreliable commodity sources,

“Canadian yields followed the global move higher. Stepping back from judgement, the conflict provides a unique opportunity for the Canadian economy. Europe’s reliance on energy imports has been laid bare for the second time in four years. First it was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and now war with Iran. On both occasions, Europe has had to find alternative sources of energy and deal with higher prices … Canada has one of the largest crude oil reserves in the world along with sizeable natural gas reserves. The challenge is getting those energy products out of the country. The pipeline network to the U.S. is sizeable and perhaps growing (a partial rehash of Keystone XL?), but Canada lacks the ability to send oil & gas offshore, with only one major LNG export plant and one major pipeline to the west coast. The Government of Canada was already focused on diversifying the country’s trade partners, and the war in Iran only reinforces that there are surely willing partners. The question is how quickly Canada can push forward with new energy export infrastructure. These are multi-year projects, but it’s an opportune time to get other countries to sign up. Beyond energy, the country has plenty of other raw materials the world wants.”

03/09/26 07:48

Iran war fuels central bank rate hike bets on inflation fears

Central ‌banks across Europe came under market pressure on Monday to lift interest rates as the war in Iran drove up energy costs and revived the specter of another inflation wave.

Money markets ramped up bets on rate increases by the European Central Bank, the ⁠Swiss National ​Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank before year-end, with the Bank of England seen following suit in 2027.

Asian central banks were also seen shelving plans to cut or even consider hikes.

The unusually sharp repricing came as major oil producers cut supply and fears grew of prolonged shipping disruptions, pushing crude above US$119 a barrel — its highest level since mid-2022.

For many policymakers, ​the surge risked reopening an old wound. Most European central banks were ‌late to raise rates four years ago when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unleashed an energy shock that quickly spilled over into broader consumer prices.

“That’s a trauma that is very much alive among some central bankers, so we cannot ignore that,” said Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management. “They will be worried about another supply shock with the potential ... to have spillovers to ‌the rest ​of the supply chain.”

The ECB was ‌seen raising rates once by June or July and most likely again by December, money-markets data showed. The Riksbank was ​seen hiking once or twice in the autumn.

The SNB was ⁠expected to move in October and once more in 2027 when the BoE was also seen ⁠joining the tightening cycle.

All four banks next meet on March 18 and 19, with no immediate action expected.

- Reuters

03/09/26 07:28

AI expected to account for 40% of S&P 500 profit growth in 2026, says Goldman Sachs

- Scott Barlow

Ben Snider, new chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, quantified the effects of oil and AI on 2026 earnings growth,

“The direct impact of modestly higher oil prices on S&P 500 earnings should be relatively muted, but a prolonged period of severe disruption or uncertainty would pose a more meaningful downside risk to our forecasts … The bigger risk to earnings is a sustained period of severe oil disruption that weighs on economic growth. In our top-down EPS model, every 1 pp change in real US GDP growth corresponds to a 3-4-per-cent change in S&P 500 EPS. A sustained increase in uncertainty would also threaten equity valuations, corporate confidence, and the nascent rebound in industrial activity … We estimate that AI investments and AI cloud services accounted for roughly 25 per cent of S&P 500 EPS growth in 2025 and will account for roughly 40 per cent of growth in 2026. The bulk of the AI-related earnings are attributable to the revenue beneficiaries of the AI capex investment boom, the majority of which has accrued to semiconductor companies. However, this S&P 500 EPS tailwind is offset slightly by the increased hyperscaler depreciation expense associated with this capex. While AI cloud services revenues are small relative to AI capex, these revenues are doubling annually and will account for roughly 5 per cent of S&P 500 EPS growth this year”

03/09/26 07:20

RBC analyst provides detailed outlook for domestic bank stocks

- Scott Barlow

Open this photo in gallery:

RBC Capital Markets bank analyst Darko Mihelic detailed his outlook for the major domestic banks,

“Our thesis for the Canadian banks we cover revolves around the following key elements: 1) Improved loan growth though we expect it to continue to decelerate shorter term. Excluding NA’s acquisition of CWB, total Canadian P&C loans increased 5 per cent year-over-year on average in Q1/26, a deceleration from 7-per-cent year-over-year growth a year ago. Commercial loans grew 5 per cent year-over-year (ex-CWB) in the quarter versus 12-per-cent year-over-year growth one year ago, decelerating the most among loan categories as commercial borrowers remain on the sidelines in light of current economic and tariff uncertainties. We model muted all-bank loan growth of 2 per cent … In the absence of meaningful loan growth in the near term, bank revenues are supported by capital markets businesses which performed well in 2025 and Q1/26 … Expense control will also be in focus in an environment of slower revenue growth, in our view … There was mild deterioration in Canadian retail credit quality in Q1/26 as seen in the median 90+ day Canadian retail delinquency rates (up 5 bps quarter-over-quarter and 9 bps year-over-year), particularly in credit cards (up 11 bps quarter-over-quarter and 13 bps year-over-year) and residential mortgages (up 4 bps quarter-over-quarter and 12 bps year-over-year), but some banks have indicated that early stage delinquencies have seen improvements … The large Canadian banks under our coverage have re-rated since our last conference. They are trading at a median P/B of 1.97 times, above the historical average of 1.69 times. Based on our 2026 core earnings estimates, the large Canadian banks we cover are trading at a median P/E of 13.6 times, above the historical average of 10.6 times and the large Canadian lifeco median of 11.1 times. While we believe valuations are already at elevated levels for our covered Canadian banks, further upside is possible on a stronger North American economy and further efficiency gains, in our view … A recent technical paper from the Canadian bank regulator OSFI concluded that Canadian banks are capitalized appropriately relative to other international banking peers”

Mr. Mihelic has “outperform” ratings on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T).

03/09/26 06:44

Short sales on the TSX: What bearish investors are betting against

- Larry MacDonald

Short selling occurs when shares in a company are borrowed and sold on the expectation they can be bought back at a lower price and returned to the owner. Academic studies have found that there is a correlation, on average, between short positions and underperformance for a stock.

In his monthly report, Larry looks at:

• Top short positions in Canadian companies
• Top increases in short positions
• Stocks most at risk for short squeezes
• Most shorted ETFs
• Should we vilify or praise short sellers?

Read more: Here

03/09/26 06:44

Monday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

- David Leeder

National Bank Financial analyst Baltej Sidhu sees Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.’s (AQN-N, AQN-T) as “a turnaround story” with its 2025 results reflecting “execution of its self-help plan.”

However, its “evident” operational progress is being overshadowed by its guidance, weighing on investor sentiment.

On Friday, the Oakville, Ont.-based company’s TSX-listed shares dropped 11.6 per cent after it reduced its fiscal 2027 earnings per share guidance by 4 US cents to 44 US cents driven primarily by higher tax assumptions. That came despite fourth-quarter 2025 EPS of 34 cents, which came in above the high end of guidance of 30-32 cents.

“While some pullback is understandable, the underlying fundamentals and earnings trajectory continue to improve, with upcoming rate case outcomes expected to provide incremental support and reinforce forward visibility,” said Mr. Sidhu.

Read more: Here

Other companies mentioned include: Aecon; AltaGas; Badger Infrastructure; Canadian Natural Resources; Canfor; Canfor Pulp; Doman Building Materials; Fuerte Metals; Headwater Exploration; Tourmaline; Vermilion

03/09/26 06:30

Gold falls on inflation concerns and stronger U.S. dollar; Mideast tensions dim rate cut bets

Gold fell on Monday as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran fueled ⁠inflation concerns, ​which dimmed near-term U.S. interest rate cut prospects and boosted the dollar.

Spot gold was down 1.2 per cent at US$5,109.39 per ounce as of 6:12 a.m. ET, after falling more than 2 per cent earlier. U.S. ​gold futures for April delivery lost 0.8 per cent ‌to US$5,118.20.

“Historically, it is not uncommon to see gold falling as first reaction when financial markets show stress signs as gold is a highly liquid asset,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Stock markets in Asia nosedived ‌as the ​inflationary jolt from surging ‌oil prices threatened to raise living costs and interest rates ​across the globe, while investors desperate for liquidity ⁠fled to the U.S. dollar, propelling it to ⁠a more than three-month high.

The dollar index was up near three-month highs. ​A stronger greenback makes bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

- Reuters

03/09/26 05:58

G7 countries to discuss tapping strategic oil reserves as prices smash through USUS$100 a barrel

- Eric Reguly

The Group of Seven industrialized countries are to discuss plans to release oil from strategic reserves as the price smashed through US$100 a barrel and reached almost US$120 at one point in early European trading on Monday.

In London, the Brent futures price for May contracts rose almost 26 per cent to US$116.38. If they remain above US$112.17, they will mark the biggest single-day climb since the futures began trading in 1988.

The prospect of a joint release of oil reserves pushed down Brent spot prices from their Monday peak of US$119.50. But in midmorning London trading, Brent was still up 13 per cent over Friday’s close, at US$105. Oil was under USUS$60 in December.

Natural gas prices climbed even faster. They were up 30 per cent because the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) travels by ship, remained all but closed. The energy shock – and the prospect of slowing economies – hit the markets again, with the FTSE-100 down 1.3 per cent and Germany’s DAX off by 2 per cent in morning trading.

Read more: Here

03/09/26 05:58

South Korea to impose first fuel cap in 30 years as Iran war sends cost of oil soaring

- James Griffiths

Open this photo in gallery:

South Korea will cap fuel prices for the first time in three decades, the government announced Monday, as economies across Asia grapple with the spiking cost of oil as a result of the widening conflict in the Middle East.

Oil prices soared to more than US$119 per barrel on Monday, an increase of more than 30 per cent since the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran on Feb. 28. That assault provoked all-out retaliatory attacks from Tehran against U.S. bases and interests in countries across the Gulf, and threats to close the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which a huge portion of oil and liquid natural gas (LNG) bound for Asian markets travels on a daily basis.

“As the crisis in the Middle East deepens, uncertainty in the domestic and global economic environment is expanding significantly, posing a considerable burden on the Korean economy relying heavily on global trade and energy imports from the Middle East,” said South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. “As it is difficult to predict how the situation will unfold, the government must prepare pre-emptive response measures with a sense of urgency, keeping even the worst-case scenario in mind.”

A fuel price cap is expected to be implemented as soon as this week, while the Bank of Korea is also preparing market-stabilization measures to respond to rising volatility.

Read more: Here

03/09/26 05:24

Oil prices surge to highest since 2022 at over US$119 a barrel on Middle East war

Oil prices surged over US$119 a barrel, hitting levels not seen since ⁠mid-2022, on ​Monday as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market due to the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Brent crude futures were up US$13.02, or 14 per cent, at US$105.71 per barrel at 5:17 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up US$12.16, or 13 per cent, at US$103.06.

Brent Jang: Elevated energy prices in store as Middle East conflict intensifies

In a whiplash ​session, Brent had earlier hit a high of US$119.50 a ‌barrel, indicating the biggest-ever absolute price jump in a single day, and WTI reached US$119.48 a barrel.

Before the surge on Monday, Brent had already climbed 28 per cent and WTI 36 per cent over last week.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes, is virtually shut. Also boosting prices is the ‌appointment of Mojtaba ​Khamenei to succeed his father Ali ‌Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader, signaling that hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into ​its conflict with the United States and Israel.

The war could ⁠leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even ⁠if the conflict, which started on February. 28, ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics and elevated risks to ​shipping.

03/09/26 05:15

Wall Street futures slump as Iran war drags on, oil near US$120 stokes inflation worries

U.S. stock index futures tumbled more than 1 per cent on Monday, while oil prices soared, exacerbating inflation fears as hostilities in the Middle ⁠East showed ​no sign of abating.

Dow E-minis were down 863 points, or 1.82 per cent, S&P 500 E-minis fell 108.5 points, or 1.61 per cent, Nasdaq ‌100 E-minis were down 407 points, or 1.65 per cent.

Crude prices jumped more than 25 per cent, climbing to just under US$120 a barrel, while the U.S. dollar surged as investors rushed for safe havens. The spike in energy costs amplified concerns that interest rates could remain ​elevated for longer, with the yield on the benchmark ‌10-year Treasury note touching its highest in more than a month.

Geopolitical tensions deepened after Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei as the successor to his father, Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader - a move seen as a clear signal that hardliners remain firmly in control in Tehran.

The ‌U.S.-Israeli war ​on Iran entered its ‌10th day with no indication of hostilities easing, as fresh missile and

- Reuters

03/09/26 05:12

Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today

- S.R. Slobodian

Global markets slumped as surging oil prices exacerbated inflation worries with the U.S.- Israeli war on Iran showing no signs of slowing ​down.

Wall Street futures were in the red after major North American markets closed sharply down on Friday

TSX futures followed sentiment lower.

In Canada, investors are getting results from Constellation Software Inc.

On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.

“Faced with the worst oil supply shock since the 1970s, ‌all eyes will be on Washington’s response,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “With no clear definition of what winning looks like, it is hard to forecast whether this will be a multi-week or multi-month conflict.”

Read more: Here

03/09/26 05:12

Friday markets recap: Stocks sink as Middle East war drives up oil prices

Stocks sank on Friday as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran drove oil prices sharply higher, while an unexpected loss of U.S. jobs in February increased hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts but did little to cheer investors worried about economic ⁠weakness. Higher oil prices and a weakening economy is a worst-case scenario for financial markets as it hints of stagflation risks.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, leaped another 8.5 per cent to settle at US$92.69. Benchmark U.S. crude breached the USUS$90 level for the first time since 2023 and jumped 12.2 per cent to US$90.90.

The latest spike in oil came after President Donald Trump’s comments that he wants an “unconditional surrender” of Iran, apparently ruling out negotiations. Meanwhile, Qatar’s Energy Minister warned Persian Gulf exporters will shut down energy production “within days” as tankers remain unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.95 per cent to 47,501.55 points, posting its steepest weekly percentage drop since early April, 2025. The S&P ‌500 lost 1.33 per cent ​to 6,740.00 points and had ‌its worst week since mid-October. The Russell 2000 recorded its sharpest weekly fall since early August. The Nasdaq ​Composite slipped 1.59 per cent to 22,387.68.

The S&P/TSX composite index ended down 526.25 points, or 1.6 per cent, at 33,083.72, ​posting its lowest closing level since Feb. 17. ‌For the week, the index was down 3.7 per cent, after four straight weeks of gains. Nine of the 10 ‌major sectors ended lower on Friday, including heavily weighted financials, which lost 1.9 per cent. Consumer discretionary was ​down 2.8 per cent and industrials ended 2.4 per cent lower.

Bond yields were volatile. The two-year U.S. bond yield was down four basis points by late afternoon, reflecting the weak U.S. jobs report that could encourage the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

But Canada’s two-year yield was up about four basis points, as the Canadian dollar continues to attract inflows amid surging crude prices, outperforming peers. It rose more than half a cent to 73.70 US cents.

- Globe staff, wires