Hello Trade Off friends,
The first season of Trade Off, The Globe and Mail’s stock-picking contest, has officially wrapped up, and now it’s time to take a closer look at our winners’ strategies.
A huge congratulations to ahebb, who takes home the $5,000 top prize with an incredible 78.4 per cent return. Hats off to GinaJAM in second place with 68.4 per cent, winning $3,000, and Mikmik33 in third with 64.9 per cent, earning $2,000.
(Want to participate in the second season of the contest? You can sign up now.)
These top performers didn’t just get lucky. Based on their portfolios on the last day of the competition, ahebb combined metals and tech in a carefully timed way. GinaJAM focused on U.S. artificial intelligence and memory stocks that were on fire. And Mikmik33 concentrated on precious metals and energy plays, showing the power of a clear thematic approach.
Portfolio Highlights
The portfolio held by ahebb included Agnico Eagle Mines and Endeavour Silver, which provided strong Canadian metals exposure. On the tech side, Micron, Applied Materials, Seagate, and Western Digital delivered huge gains. This combination of metals and AI-related tech produced standout returns.
GinaJAM leaned into a tech-focused strategy. Seagate, Western Digital, and Micron posted massive returns, allowing GinaJAM to ride the AI and memory wave to second place. While far from diversified, concentrating on these hot sectors was key to this player’s success in the short-term.
Mikmik33, meanwhile, relied on precious metals to power the portfolio. Wheaton Precious Metals, Endeavour Silver, Aya Gold & Silver, OceanaGold, Pan American Silver, and Peyto Exploration created a silver-and-energy lineup that kept them on the podium. Again, sticking to sector themes produced strong results.
Over all, these returns truly stand out when compared with broader market benchmarks. During the competition, the S&P/TSX composite index gained 10 per cent, the S&P 500 rose 3.5 per cent, and the NASDAQ 100 increased a modest 2 per cent. Even the standout performance of the TSX Materials index, which surged 35 per cent, was outpaced by some of the individual sector winners. Ultimately, concentrating on winning themes allowed these portfolios to outperform the broader indexes by a wide margin.
Winning Themes: Speaking of those winning themes, what were the catalysts? Gold and silver stocks led Canadian portfolios thanks to strong industrial demand, tight supply, and steady investor interest. In the U.S., AI and memory tech surged as demand accelerated, with Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital emerging as standouts.
Trade Secret Tips
While the contest showed that focusing on the right trends at the right time can produce dramatic short-term returns, investing for most is a long-term commitment. So even if your portfolio did not outperform during the competition, the skills you gained – tracking trends, spotting momentum, and timing trades – are valuable for future investing.
Continue building your knowledge with The Globe’s resources. Check out our Dividend All-Stars, a guide to the year’s 20 best dividend-paying stocks on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Stay up to speed with all the latest business headlines here. Explore constantly updated investment perspectives in our investing section.
And, of course, put it all in perspective for your own financial journey, by exploring the stories and tools in our personal finance section.
Congratulations again to ahebb, GinaJAM, and Mikmik33. Their strategies show that understanding market trends can make a big difference even over just twelve weeks. Try it for yourself and sign up for the next Trade Off competition on March 2.
Happy trading,
Jon
Jon Erlichman is the founder of Ticker Take on YouTube and a contributor to BNN Bloomberg.