UBS on Thursday increased its gold price target to $6,200 per ounce for March, June and September 2026, compared with a prior forecast of $5,000, citing stronger-than-expected demand stemming from increased investment. However, the bank projected a modest decline to $5,900 per ounce by end-2026 after U.S. midterm elections. Spot gold prices eased on Thursday after hitting a record peak of $5,594.82 per ounce earlier in the session. Prices broke the $5,000 mark for the first time on Monday and have gained nearly 24% this month, steered by strong buying momentum amid a series of geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
UBS said it now expects sustained central bank buying, stronger exchange-traded fund inflows and increased bar and coin demand, supported by lower U.S. real rates, global economic risks and uncertainty over U.S. domestic policy, especially around the midterm elections and growing fiscal stress.
UBS sees an upside scenario of $7,200 per ounce and a downside case of $4,600 for gold, noting that a hawkish Federal Reserve could heighten downside risks, while escalating geopolitical tensions could drive prices higher.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said.
On the policy side, the Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday amid what U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell described as a solid economy and diminished risks to both inflation and employment. Trump on Thursday said he intends to announce his pick to replace Powell next week.