A personal support worker brings drinks for residents at the Extendicare Medex long-term care residence in Ottawa. The company's stock has doubled this year as it transitions to home health care.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
An aging population, coupled with a shortage of long-term care beds and many seniors adamant about aging at home, has some investors eyeing senior living stocks – including one whose share price has doubled this year.
Demographics make the sector appear attractive in the long term, but some money managers warn of short-term risks, such as tariffs or a decline in occupancy rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. What’s more, Canada’s senior living stocks are not alike and can perform differently depending on the business cycle.
“The aging demographic is happening, and there are several stocks to invest in. It’s just a matter of picking which part of that aging demographic cycle you want to bet on,” says Rebecca Teltscher, portfolio manager at Newhaven Asset Management Inc. in Toronto.
The four main Canadian pure-play senior living stocks are Extendicare Inc. EXE-T, a long-term care (LTC) and home health care provider; Chartwell Retirement Residences CSH-UN-T, which has largely transitioned away from LTC to focus more on private-pay retirement residences; Sienna Senior Living Inc. SIA-T, which operates a mix of LTC and private retirement residences; and Savaria Corp. SIS-T, which sells at-home accessibility equipment such as stairlifts and elevators to help seniors age in place.
Shares of Extendicare have doubled so far in 2025, outperforming its peers and the S&P/TSX Composite Index. The stock has risen sharply since the company announced a $570-million acquisition of CBI Home Health, a national home health care platform with operations in seven provinces, on Nov. 19.
“From a business-mix perspective, we maintain a favourable view of increasing home health exposure given multi-year demand drivers such as aging demographics and industry-wide LTC bed waitlists,” wrote BMO Capital Markets analyst Tom Callaghan in a Dec. 3 note.
He increased his price target for the stock to $24 from $21 and upgraded his recommendation to “outperform” (buy) from “market perform” (hold).
Denis Taillefer, portfolio manager at Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. in Toronto, bought Extendicare stock on Oct. 22, based on its status as the largest private long-term care company in Canada and opportunities to acquire some of the many private companies in the market.
He also likes the transition to home health care, given many seniors’ desire to age in place and because it’s a lower-capital business compared with LTC facilities.
“There’s a lot of stress on the overall health care market … so, we think home health care is going to play a big part in alleviating that,” he says, pointing to government funding to help support the sector.
On Oct. 27, the Ontario government announced another $1.1-billion in investments in home health care over the next three years, on top of the $2-billion it announced in 2024 over a three-year period.
Chartwell is another stock Mr. Taillefer holds, purchasing it in November, 2023, as it began its recovery from a pullback during the pandemic. Occupancy rates are around 95 per cent, up from about 77 per cent during the late days of the pandemic in 2022, driven by high demand from aging demographics and a slowdown in the construction of seniors’ residences because of increased financing and construction costs in the higher interest-rate environment.
“We still think there’s room to grow,” he says of the stock price, citing the tight market conditions that are expected to continue for years to come.
He also likes that Chartwell is moving away from LTC, an industry with more government regulation and occupancy rate requirements that can impact expansion. Chartwell sold almost all of its LTC operations in 2023 and 2024. Mr. Taillefer notes that Chartwell still owns a handful of LTC facilities, but no longer operates them.
Chartwell’s shares are up more than 20 per cent this year, as are shares of Sienna Senior Living, which owns and operates LTC homes and retirement residences in Ontario, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia, alongside its seniors’ housing operations management business.
“Sienna has progressed in shifting revenue and [net operating income] mix from government-funded more toward private-pay, but remains slightly tilted to the former,” CIBC Capital Markets analyst Tal Woolley wrote in a recent note, adding that the operating, regulatory and reputational challenges from the pandemic are “now largely behind the company.”
The analyst recently updated the company’s stock to “outperformer” (buy) from “sector performer” (hold), and raised his target price to $23 from $20 after the company’s third-quarter results.
“Further upside to our 2026/27 forecasts does not seem out of reach,” he wrote in a Nov. 17 note. “If demographic demand continues to accelerate as SIA outlined on its conference call, that could prove conservative, and investors will likely see more upside over time.”
Mr. Woolley believes Sienna will continue to grow through acquisitions and take a “prudent approach to development of LTC and retirement residences, but noted that investment and operating economics are tight. ”While diminishing, these risks may serve to hamper investor sentiment," he wrote.
Ms. Teltscher says Newhaven doesn’t currently own any LTC or retirement residence stocks for its clients, citing, in part, the risk of a recession or a prolonged housing downturn, which could curb occupancy rates, especially if seniors are unwilling to sell their homes to move into more costly retirement communities. The LTC sector is also highly regulated, which can become burdensome for those companies.
Instead, her firm owns Savaria for its focus on the growing stay-at-home senior cohort, particularly those with health and mobility issues who have no plans to move from homes where they’ve lived for decades.
“I know people who will spend every last dollar they have just to stay in their homes as long as possible,” Ms. Teltscher says.
Savaria’s products include stairlifts, wheelchair ramps, home elevators and ceiling lifts that help people move from a bed to a wheelchair without having to call in family members or health care workers.
“It’s also a play on the theme that there’s a shortage of health care workers,” Ms. Teltscher says.
Savaria shares have been weighed down this year by the threat of tariffs. The company’s products are currently exempt from tariffs because they’re either U.S. Food and Drug Administration-regulated or Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement-compliant, but Ms. Teltscher notes that trade negotiations are volatile and ongoing.