What are we looking for?
The price of copper is at or near historic highs and looks like it can continue to climb over the next 24 to 36 months. What are we seeing for valuations for Canadian copper stocks and are the new tariffs affecting these companies?
The screen
We used StockCalc’s screener to select the top 10 TSX-listed copper stocks by market capitalization. We then used StockCalc’s valuation models to calculate fundamental (or intrinsic) valuation for each stock to see if they are undervalued or overvalued compared with current price.
Overview of the techniques used:
- Discounted cash flow (DCF value) is a valuation technique in which cash-flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share;
- A price comparables (price comps) technique values the company on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies;
- An adjusted book value (ABV) is calculated by multiplying book value per share by its 10-year average price-to-book ratio;
- If we have analyst coverage, we may include the consensus target price in our valuation.
More about StockCalc
StockCalc is a fundamental valuation platform with tools to calculate and report on value per share for thousands of public companies listed on major North American stock exchanges. StockCalc also contains numerous tools to understand what the stocks you are investing in are worth. Globe Unlimited subscribers can subscribe to StockCalc using the promo code ‘Globe30’, which offers a 30-day free trial and special pricing for the second month.
What we found
Benchmark three-month LME copper was US$14,215/tonne as of Aug. 24, after briefly reaching record levels near US$14,900 during mid-August. That compares to levels around US$10,000 through much of the prior cycle. Copper is not currently in a global deficit, but there is broad agreement that supply and inventory levels in the LME are vulnerable especially given we have seen supply disruptions to mines in Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile in the last year. Today’s spot price of US$14,215 is already close to what many analysts expected copper to reach in 2027.
U.S. tariff threat upends copper surplus as prices test all-time peak
The breakdown of U.S.-Canada trade talks does not appear to impose a new 50-per-cent tariff on Canadian copper ore, concentrate, anodes or cathodes. The original U.S. copper investigation that commenced in February of 2025 recommended that the Commerce Department review and report back on a 15-per-cent tariff on refined copper beginning Jan. 1, 2027, followed by a 30-per-cent tariff beginning Jan. 1, 2028. That resulted in a 50-per-cent copper tariff under U.S. Section 232 rules that apply to semi-finished and copper-intensive manufactured products including pipes, wires, rods, sheets, tubes, cables and electrical components. The White House specifically exempted copper ore, concentrates, mattes, cathodes, anodes and copper scrap from those Section 232 tariffs.
What is interesting for Canadian-listed copper companies is this 232 tariff, if imposed further, applies only to their products imported into the United States – a number of these companies with mines or developments in the United States (Trekor Metals, Hudbay, Ivanhoe Electric and Faraday) may actually benefit from a higher copper price while avoiding tariffs on their U.S.-based production.
Copper rods are seen at Truong Phu cable factory in northern Hai Duong province, outside Hanoi, Vietnam, in 2017.Kham/Reuters
Our weighted models are showing modest upside after the huge runs in these stocks over the last 52 weeks. Let’s look at a few companies in this space:
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVN-T) is a diversified mining company focused on advancing its four principal projects in Southern Africa, including the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex, a large, high-grade, stratiform copper deposit; Platreef Project; the Kipushi Project; and and the Western Foreland Exploration Project. Following the May, 2025, flooding, Kamoa-Kakula is again operational, but the high-grade Kakula mine remains in a multiyear recovery and redevelopment program. Production guidance has been revised down about 20 to 25 per cent or 100,000 tonnes for both 2026 and 2027. Our models show further upside to Ivanhoe Mines.
Capstone Copper Corp (CS-T) is a company that mines, explores and develops mineral properties in the Americas. Specifically, the group has operating mines in the U.S., Mexico and Canada, and development projects in Chile and Canada. The company’s main focus is copper, but the company also produces zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver and gold. The Chilean cathode exports to the U.S. could be exposed under an expanded tariff program. Our models show further upside for Capstone Copper.
You can see in the accompanying table the percentage difference between each stocks recent closing price and its intrinsic value. The “StockCalc Valuation” column is a weighted calculation derived from the models and analyst target data if used.
Investing involves risk. StockCalc accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of this analysis.
Brian Donovan, CBV, is the president of StockCalc, a Canadian fintech based in Miramichi, N.B.