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NASDAQ100 has resumed its bullish trend after completing an ABC correction, while AUDJPY is also pointing higher. As long as JPY crosses remain strong, the broader risk-on environment is likely to stay intact.
USDJPY has reversed aggressively from the 164 area, breaking key technical supports and signaling that a larger trend change may be underway. While a short-term recovery is possible, the broader structure suggests that upside could be limited and followed by further weakness.
AUDUSD is recovering after the recent decline toward 0.6920, but the current bounce may only represent a temporary corrective move. Watch the 0.7120 resistance area, where sellers could step back in and resume the broader downside trend.
USDCHF continues its strong recovery after breaking out of the fourth-wave consolidation, with the fifth wave now likely underway. Price is approaching key resistance near 0.8290, where a corrective pullback could develop.
Weekly market outlook covering the Fed decision, earnings season, and key Elliott Wave setups across FX, stocks, commodities, and crypto. We review the latest price action, important support/resistance levels, and potential next moves across major markets.
The Canadian dollar futures contract, widely known as the loonie, remains locked in a broader consolidation range between roughly 0.71 and 0.74 as traders weigh a fresh round of North American trade uncertainty against a firmer commodity backdrop. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, its sixth consecutive hold, while trimming its 2026 growth forecast even as it pointed to a recovery later in the year. Meanwhile, the July 1 CUSMA review deadline passed without the United States agreeing to a full extension, leaving existing tariffs in place and shifting the pact toward annual reviews. At the same time, a sharp escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran has pushed crude oil prices higher through the middle of July, offering some underlying support to the commodity linked currency. Against this backdrop, the market has broken down from a smaller consolidation range into the lower boundary of the larger range near 0.71, where a recent liquidity check was absorbed by buyers, setting up a pivotal test in the coming weeks between continued rotation and a deeper breakdown.
EURGBP is extending lower as anticipated after completing a larger corrective structure, with the pair now trading within the final wave E of a long-term triangle pattern. The current decline could continue toward the 0.8400–0.8300 support zone, while any short-term recovery should remain corrective.
The Euro (6E) futures market remains locked in a sideways consolidation range that has held since June 2025, bounded roughly between 1.187 and 1.15, as traders weigh a diverging policy path between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve against the backdrop of the Iran conflict and its effect on energy prices. Sellers recently pushed the pair below the 1.15 level and appear to be defending that ground, though buyers seem to be absorbing liquidity there rather than folding outright. With 1.15 acting as the pivotal level for the weeks ahead, the pair's next directional move will likely hinge on the ECB's July 23 rate decision, the Fed's July 29 meeting, and any fresh developments out of the Middle East that could swing oil prices and inflation expectations in either direction.
NZDJPY may be completing a corrective wave (4) pullback within a larger bullish impulse. A recovery in wave (5) could target the 96–97 area initially, with potential for an extension toward 99.00.
In this article, we want to present how the USDCHF pair has been moving nicely according to our expectations over the last couple of weeks. By following the Elliott Wave structure and identifying key corrective patterns, we were able to anticipate the bullish continuation from important support areas.But it was not only about Elliott waves; we also focused on SNB which was dovish, much more compared to FED where higher inflation is causing some seriosu problems and maybe they will have to rethink their policy actions. US yeilds were on the rise and with SNB being dovish, we saw USDCHF going higher. Plus, SNB even mentioned intervention as a possibility a few times this year. So this makes teh case for Elliott wave bullish pattern even stronger.
This week's market outlook covers the latest Elliott Wave analysis across Forex, commodities, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. We discuss the outlook for the U.S. Dollar, Treasury yields, major currency pairs, gold, silver, crude oil, the S&P 500, leading stocks including Nvidia, Amazon, AMD, Visa, and Berkshire Hathaway, as well as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Litecoin. Discover the key technical levels, wave counts, and market scenarios to watch in the coming days.
USDJPY reversed sharply from the 5th-wave target area, likely due to suspected BoJ intervention, opening the door for further downside toward 160–159 and potentially 155 if momentum continues. On the intraday view, a completed five-wave decline suggests a corrective rebound toward 161.64–161.95, with resistance at 162.30 before possible continuation lower.
USDMXN has completed wave C of a 3-3-5 flat correction at projected resistance and is now reversing sharply lower, suggesting bearish momentum is resuming. While further downside is likely, short-term corrective pullbacks should still be expected.
Following the completion of the triangle, the market formed a bearish impulsive setup with visible subwaves 1 and 2. As such, EUR/GBP now appears to be entering wave 3 of a larger five-wave bearish impulse. Since third waves are typically the strongest and steepest portion of an impulse sequence, the current decline has the potential to accelerate and extend over the coming sessions and weeks.While the broader outlook remains bearish, traders should remain aware of short-term intraday pullbacks, which are common during impulsive declines and can provide temporary relief rallies before the downtrend resumes. As long as the recent breakdown remains intact, the path of least resistance appears to be lower, supporting the view that wave (C) of the larger wave E decline is now underway.
Global stocks bounced after strong Micron guidance revived AI sentiment following a tech selloff. Equities hold key support, suggesting a possible short-term recovery, while the U.S. dollar may face pressure amid mixed signals from Treasury yields and DXY wave structure. Metals remain near lows but could see corrective rebounds. All attention now turns to U.S. PCE inflation and GDP data, which may set the next market direction.
USDJPY has resumed its recovery and is trading back near the 2024 highs, despite earlier intervention efforts by the Bank of Japan. However, the rally may be in the final stages of a Wave 5 of Wave C structure, with five waves already visible on the 4-hour chart, while a break below the rising channel would strengthen the case for a significant bearish reversal in the weeks or months ahead.
In this Elliott Wave webinar, Grega Horvat reviewed the latest developments across global markets, including the US dollar, US-Iran negotiations, stocks, commodities, and currencies. He also shared key Elliott Wave insights and highlighted potential market scenarios ahead of important economic data releases.
6B, the futures contract tracking the British pound against the US dollar, has spent the past month caught between resilient domestic data and an unpredictable geopolitical backdrop, leaving the Pound oscillating without committing firmly to a direction even as recent sessions brought a sharper selloff. The Pound has traded choppily over the past month as the Bank of England held its key rate at 3.75 percent on June 18, while traders weighed the inflationary impact of renewed US-Iran clashes near the Strait of Hormuz earlier in May against a subsequent ceasefire memorandum that points toward de-escalation, alongside signs of cooling UK price pressures and renewed questions over Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership. Technically, the pair remains locked in a broad sideways range between 1.3781 and 1.3189 that has persisted since May 2025, with the past two trading days bringing an aggressive selloff back toward the lower end of that range. Looking ahead, the 1.3189 level is the line in the sand, and how price behaves around it should determine whether the next move is a recovery toward the range midpoint, a breakout above the yearly VWAP, or a deeper slide toward the 1.30 and 1.273 areas.
When looking at the dollar, it would not be a surprise to see some setback because after all we can count five waves up from the 99.10 level, and this could allow for some pullback in the near term. Pullbacks should then be structured by three waves, so an A-B-C decline is something that we should be aware of over the next few sessions. It could be just another fourth wave before a fresh rebound, but for now it may be better to wait on the sidelines and see what happens early next week, with support around 100.00.