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AUDUSD is recovering very nicely, as we identified that the three-wave retracement from the March highs likely completed at 0.6833, followed by a strong move out of the corrective channel, which confirmed that the trend is turning back to bullish. Price traveled above 0.7190 highs, showing strong upside momentum from the March low. At the same time, price tested impulse channel resistance, so there is a chance of a near-term slowdown. However, it is still too early to confirm that the higher degree wave five is complete unless we see a break below the lower trendline support around 0.7100. This would cause a minimum three wave drop then, closer to 0.7. Alternatively, after that retracement, there is still room for more upside toward the 0.7300 to 0.7400 area if impulse extends, after subwave 2
USDCAD is moving lower from the 1.3930 resistance and has also broken below the trendline support from the March lows, which suggests a reversal is underway. The decline looks like it is unfolding in impulsive fashion, and it likely suggests there is more weakness ahead. However, after a three-wave bounce, we would expect continuation lower within a higher degree A-B-C correction.
Cable has spent the better part of a year locked within a well-defined consolidation range, grinding between 1.32 area daily support and 1.38 daily resistance as competing macro forces on both sides of the Atlantic kept conviction two-sided. A failed seller probe below 1.32 in November 2025, a sharp but ultimately rejected rally above range highs in late January 2026, and a subsequent block-step sell-off back to daily support have all reinforced the integrity of the broader range. Since March, a tighter consolidation block has formed between 1.32 and 1.345, and buyers have most recently stepped in aggressively through this block, fueled by geopolitical relief from the US-Iran ceasefire and developing Russia-Ukraine peace optimism. With the Fed firmly on hold and the BoE shifting toward a more hawkish posture on the back of sticky UK inflation, the 1.345 area (Daily Level 2) now sits as the decisive battleground that will define Cable's directional bias heading into Q2 2026.
AUDUSD has broken above its corrective channel and previous swing highs, signaling a developing bullish recovery or early impulsive sequence with potential for further upside after short-term pullbacks.
The Australian dollar has been in a broad uptrend since December 2025, underpinned by a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia that has now delivered back-to-back rate hikes, a US dollar weighed down by a Fed firmly on hold with markets pricing little to no easing in 2026, and a broader improvement in risk sentiment. After an explosive move higher in late January that carried price from the 0.675 area up to long-term daily resistance at 0.713, the market has settled into a defined consolidation range. Sellers have defended the top while buyers have held the bottom, and a recent liquidity check below support was quickly absorbed. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively restricted despite a brief post-ceasefire opening, and the RBA potentially poised for another hike in May, all eyes are on whether buyers can mount a credible challenge at 0.713, or whether the geopolitical uncertainty keeps the market pinned within its current range.
EUR/JPY remains in a strong uptrend, with the potential for further upside despite short-term consolidation.
Looking at the daily chart, there is still room for further upside, as the market may have already completed a higher degree five wave decline from the January 2025 highs. Even under an alternate count, where this move is wave C of a flat, there is still potential for a move toward 101 or slightly higher, possibly retesting the previously broken trendline support, that can later turn into resistance.
Rising oil prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures have caused significant stock declines in emerging markets, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index facing its steepest drop since March of 2020. At the same time, we're beginning to see new opportunities emerge as countries realize they need to better diversity.
AUDUSD continues its March decline but is nearing a critical support zone that could signal stabilization and a potential bullish recovery.
The US Dollar Index remains bullish after a corrective pullback, with Elliott Wave analysis signaling a final push toward 101 before a potential ABC correction.
NZDUSD shows signs of completing a wedge pattern, suggesting a potential short-term bounce.
Looking at the daily chart, it also seems that the pair may have completed a higher degree wedge pattern, and we are now in a bearish phase that could resume to the downside after this current rebound.
Technicals sometimes lead the real-world events - and that's what happened recently. Understanding WHY the rally is coming is still important, though.
EURUSD has rotated back into balance after failing to sustain its January breakout, as stronger United States data and a repricing toward a higher for longer stance from the Federal Reserve have supported the dollar in the near term. While the broader macro backdrop still leans against the dollar due to prior easing and improving European fiscal dynamics, price action is now contained within a defined consolidation range. The market is increasingly focused on key levels at 1.165 and 1.145, where acceptance or rejection will determine whether the next move is a continuation of balance or the start of a new trend.
Metals are moving sharply to the downside, while stocks are also coming under pressure, so it looks like there is more capitulation happening, especially in metals. Still, when we see such moves early in the week, markets can stabilize in the following days, as once prices drop significantly there are fewer sellers left, which can lead to short covering rallies.
This usually happened after Fed's rate decisions, and it's critical for the current situation in gold, silver, and mining stocks.
What is important now is that we only have three waves down from the recent highs on the dollar index. In Elliott Wave terms, when you see a strong five wave recovery followed by only a three wave pullback, you should be aware of a potential stabilization and a move back to the upside. We could already be bottoming around 99.05, which was a pivot level of the previous wave four range. However, there is also deeper support around 98.48 that could still be retested in this wave 4. For me, it’s still a bit tricky to look for longs here, especially on a Friday. But if next week we see a retest of the 99 area, I would be much more interested in looking for setups. Overall, I still think the dollar index will sooner or later find buyers again, especially with ongoing weakness in stocks and metals.
USDJPY has been in a sustained uptrend since the second quarter of 2025, driven primarily by the wide interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. After buyers compressed prices towards the 159.2 daily resistance level in December 2025, a reversal in late January 2026 flushed the market down to the 152.5 area following suspected coordinated intervention signals between Japanese authorities and the New York Federal Reserve. The pair subsequently auctioned two-way between 152.5 and 157.5 with elevated volatility before buyers reasserted control and steadily bid prices back up towards the 159.2 area. With the pair now testing that same resistance zone again, the coming weeks will be defined by how the market resolves price around 159.2, the 2026 yearly VWAP at 157.5, and the broader macro backdrop of BoJ normalization against a Fed that is approaching the end of its easing cycle.
“Middle East tensions continue to escalate, pushing crude oil sharply higher with prices gapping more than 20%, which is adding pressure on stocks and keeping markets in a risk-off mood. At the same time, the US dollar has strengthened as investors seek safety. While gaps often get filled and the dollar may still be trading within a fourth-wave consolidation that could take the form of a triangle or flat, the broader outlook suggests a potential pause followed by another push higher into wave five. Key support for the dollar index is seen around the 98.85–98.66 area, where buyers may step in as geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and recession risks continue to support demand for the USD.”
GBP/USD reversed sharply after briefly breaking above the 2025 high, signaling a potential shift into a bearish phase with further downside possible while price remains below key resistance.
GBPNZD is reversing quite sharply to the downside. Price has overlapped the 2.27 level and also broke through the lower line of the base channel, which confirms that we are likely in a wave three selloff. If that is the case, then we know that wave three is usually the strongest part of the move and can unfold as part of a higher degree bearish impulse.With that in mind, more weakness can be expected. Impulses unfold in five waves, so after a possible wave four recovery, which may retest the base channel resistance line, the pair could see another push lower. That would represent wave five, potentially heading toward the 2.2130 area in 2026.
Gold and silver plunged in the aftermath of the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. What gives?