I woke up at 5 a.m. and accidentally had an extremely productive day that even included a workout. This is pretty jarring for a girl whose favourite hobby is laying down. I’m having intrusive thoughts about setting my alarm for 5 a.m. again and telling you about how transformed I feel. If I start talking about the benefits of creatine vs. protein, it’s time to stage an intervention.
Here are five things to know this week:
Dancin’ in September: Historically, September is the worst month of the year for stocks. This month, however, is anything but. In fact, the NASDAQ is on pace for its biggest gain for September in 15 years. The TSX is on the verge of crossing 30,000 for the first time while the S&P 500 is now sporting a 13-per-cent return so far in 2025.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is cutting rates even though stocks are at record highs, core inflation remains at 3.1 per cent and its own growth forecast is increasing.
“Indeed, the Fed has now delivered 125bps of rate cuts since September 2024,” wrote Jim Reid, head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank. “You have to go back to the 1980s for the last time they cut that rapidly in a non-recessionary environment.”
Great expectations: Investors have been piling into Micron Technology MU-Q ahead of its earnings report on Tuesday; it was up a record 12 sessions in a row last week. Micron makes a memory chip that feeds data to AI accelerators at extremely fast speeds. It’s often paired with Nvidia NVDA-Q or AMD’s AMD-Q AI chips and used in data centres, which has been on the receiving end of hundreds of billions of spending from tech giants.
Sales are expected to increase nearly 44 per cent this quarter while profit per share is set to soar 234 per cent. Expectations are high, but Citi argues that there is still room to beat. “We believe the continued memory upturn is being driven by limited production and better than expected demand, particularly from the data center end market (55% of Micron revenue),” wrote Citi analyst Christopher Danely, who’s full-year profit forecast is 26 per cent higher than consensus.
On sale: Something interesting is happening to Costco COST-Q shares. While the markets continue to melt up, it has been melting down. Shares of Costco have fallen 12 per cent from the February all-time high. It’s against that backdrop that the big-box retailer is set to report quarterly results on Thursday.
Analysts are expecting a respectable 6-per-cent increase in same-store sales growth. Since February, Costco has reported results twice and has failed to beat profit expectations both times. That is pretty rare. And when you consider the stock is trading at an eye-watering 50x earnings, investors need to see more than respectable results to move the needle.
Oppenheimer warns there is a good chance Costco will miss expectations again this quarter. It has reopened early shopping hours for executive members, which could come with additional costs, warned Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh. He maintains his buy rating for long-term shareholders but warns that upside potential near-term is limited as the company faces difficult comparisons.
Throwback: BlackBerry BB-T will report results Thursday, and the stock is up 17 per cent over the past two months into earnings, suggesting investors feel like something could break their way. Chief executive John Giamatteo has been in the role for nearly two years trying to revitalize the tech company that has been plagued with falling sales and a weak cybersecurity unit.
While their QNX business has continued to grow, the pace of growth has slowed. Bay Street is still pretty lukewarm on BlackBerry with most analysts neutral on the stock. CIBC analyst Todd Coupland, however, rates the stock a buy and says this quarter should show improved results and better execution.
He upgraded the stock last June, and since his upgrade the stock is up more than 90 per cent. He also says that the cybersecurity problem child is poised to benefit from higher defence spending around the world.
GDP and me: We will get a read of Canada’s economy on Friday with GDP for July. Economists are expecting 0.7-per-cent growth in economic activity from a year ago. This comes after the Bank of Canada cut rates to the lowest level in two years last week.
Governor Tiff Macklem made it clear he is not necessarily keen to cut rates again in October, especially because it will be before the federal budget is unveiled in November, argues BMO’s Canadian rates and macro strategist Benjamin Reitzes. “Policy remains data-dependent, suggesting we’ll need to see a further deterioration over the next month to prompt a cut,” he wrote.
Mr. Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers are speaking at different events next week ahead of the data, but we are unlikely to hear anything new.
In the Money with Amber Kanwar brings you insights from top portfolio managers and business leaders. Listen at www.inthemoneypod.com