With inflation right around target, some speculate the Bank of Canada might not get move rates in either direction next year.Keito Newman/The Globe and Mail
In my last missive for 2025, I am going to park the sarcasm and lean into something uncomfortable: genuine emotion. Thank you to everyone who listened to the In the Money podcast, joined me on this new adventure, and read stories about my kids demonstrating, repeatedly, that chaos is a lifestyle choice.
Here are five things to know this week:
Hot toddy: Before we can all head out for the holidays, there are some top-tier economic data being released that will be key to central bank policy. We are expecting a read of inflation in Canada on Monday and prices for the month of November are estimated to have ticked up to 2.3 per cent. With inflation right around target, some speculate we might not get rate moves in either direction next year. “Fully 7 of the past 15 years have seen the Bank on hold for a full calendar year,” wrote BMO chief economist Douglas Porter, who recently shifted his call to no rate changes for 2026.
U.S. data will be chockablock with the release of November job numbers and October retail sales on Tuesday, and then the consumer price index on Thursday. Anxieties about the rate path were stoked last week when the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack said she would prefer rates to be more restrictive. She will be a voter on Fed policy in 2026. There are also a host of international rate decisions from the European Central Bank (expected to hold on Thursday), Bank of England (expected to cut on Thursday) and the Bank of Japan (expected to hike Friday).
Runner up: Nike NKE-N reports results Thursday at a time when retail is suddenly outperforming the market. Over the past month the retail index is up 8 per cent while the S&P 500 is flat. Nike is lagging peers, but with the general trend of retailers beating expectations and many raising forecasts, let’s see if that momentum extends to Nike. The embattled athletic apparel maker is down 62 per cent from the 2021 peak, but with the World Cup around the corner some are betting they are close to seeing a turnaround. “Nike has spent the last year cleaning up excess inventory and ramping innovation and we expect 3Q to begin a sales inflection,” wrote Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson.
Take one for the team: Micron Technology Inc. MU-Q will be one of the last major semiconductors to report results this year. Shares of the memory chip maker have surged nearly 190 per cent so far in 2025. Micron has been benefiting from soaring prices for the chips. Spot memory prices have increased 69 per cent since the beginning of November, in part because of supply constraints, but also because of reallocated production to high-bandwidth memory to meet AI demand. Citi notes that Micron is sold out of high-bandwidth memory chips and hyperscalers are probably going to pay Micron to start making more. “We expect the company to post results/guidance significantly above Consensus,” wrote Citi analyst Christopher Danely.
Ripening: BlackBerry BB-T reports Thursday after the close and if history is any guide, the enterprise software company could beat expectations once again. Ever since CEO John Giamatteo took the reins two years ago, BlackBerry’s revenue has been on average 8 per cent higher and profit has been 170 per cent higher than expectations, notes CIBC analyst Todd Coupland in a preview note. Mr. Coupland says there is room for BlackBerry to offer a rosy forecast on the back of double-digit growth for QNX, its in-car infotainment platform. The company could also benefit from increased defence spending around the world, he says.
The real Santa: If you had to guess how shipper FedEx FDX-N would do after a generational increase in tariffs, you may not have intuited the stock would be up 44 per cent from Liberation Day lows. Yet here we are. FedEx has been a poster child of “controlling the controllables.” It has been on a multi-year journey to cut as much as US$6-billion in costs by 2027. The company has been telling investors they’ll see the benefits. “With the maturation of e-commerce growth post-COVID, both FedEx and UPS have pivoted to greater yield and margin focus,” Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan wrote in a preview note to clients. FedEx also announced it will spin off its less-than-truckload business next year, a move Mr. Chan doesn’t believe is fully priced into the stock.
In the Money with Amber Kanwar is Canada’s top investing podcast. New episodes out Tuesday and Thursday. Subscribe now at www.inthemoneypod.com