It was a September to remember for small-cap stocks with the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index closing at a record high on Sept. 29.
Small caps outperformed the broader index by a wide margin for second consecutive month. The S&P/TSX SmallCap Index advanced 8.66 per cent in September, topping the 5.11 per cent price return for the S&P/TSX Composite Index. In Aug., the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index rallied 9.17 per cent, compared to a 4.79-per-cent return for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
Year-to-date, the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index is up 33.99 per cent, well above the 21.41-per-cent gain for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
The top 10 performers in the TSX SmallCap Index during the month were:
- Bitfarms Ltd. (BITF-T), up 115 per cent
- Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC-T), up 93 per cent
- New Pacific Metals Corp. (NUAG-T), up 56 per cent
- Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T), up 43 per cent
- Andean Precious Metals Corp. (APM-T), up 42 per cent
- Western Copper and Gold Corp. (WRN-T), up 42 per cent
- Americas Gold and Silver Corp. (USA-T), up 40 per cent
- Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA-T), up 40 per cent
- Uranium Royalty Corp. (URC-T), up 39 per cent
- Almonty Industries Inc. (AII-T), up 38 per cent
Stocks with large positive revisions to their average target prices over the past month include:
- NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG-T), up 24 per cent
- Aris Mining Corp. (ARIS-T), up 21 per cent
- Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAG-T), up 19 per cent
- Energy Fuels Inc. (EFR-T), up 19 per cent
- Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA-T), up 18 per cent
Stocks with large negative revisions to their target prices over the past month include:
- European Residential REIT (ERE-UN-T), down 38 per cent
- Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP-T), down 13 per cent
- Dentalcorp. Holdings Ltd. (DNTL-T), down 10 per cent
For the first nine months of 2025, the TSX SmallCap Index is up 33.99 per cent, well above the 21.41 per cent gain for the TSX Composite Index.
Historically, October is an unpredictable month for the SmallCap Index. Over the past 20 years, the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index has posted gains 50 per cent of the time.
Now, here’s a look at analysts’ current target prices, recommendations, forecast returns and yields for all 239 securities in the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index grouped by sector and ranked according to their expected price returns (excluding dividend and distribution income). The posted target price for each security is an average of all available target prices from analysts. A target price typically reflects an expected share or unit price 12 months from now based on an analyst’s financial modelling, such as a discounted cash flow or sum-of-the-parts model. Data is as of Sept. 30.
It’s important to note that high target prices, which imply stellar returns that seem unbelievable may be just that - unrealistic. At times, when a stock price falls analysts may maintain their bullish expectations, inflating the forecast return. In addition, an outlier (extreme target price) can skew the average target price, to the upside or downside, particularly when the number of analysts covering a stock is low. Don’t let a huge projected gain lure you into a position – it is critical to look at the company and industry fundamentals.
Click here to download an Excel version of the report.
--