November was a strong month for equities with the S&P/TSX Composite Index closing out the month at a record high.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index surged 3.7 per cent in November with mixed moves as five sectors rallied by 4 per cent or more while six sectors posted negative returns.
Sectors that rallied were materials, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, energy and financials with price returns of 14.5 per cent, 8.8 per cent, 7.3 per cent, 4.1 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively. Sectors with the largest declines were technology, health care and real estate with negative price returns of 7.1 per cent, 4.9 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively.
Year-to-date, the S&P/TSX Composite Index is up 26.9 per cent as of Nov. 28.
The top 10 performers in the TSX Index during the month were:
- Aris Mining Corp. (ARIS-T), up 42 per cent
- Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA-T), up 35 per cent
- IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG-T), up 35 per cent
- Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE-T), up 33 per cent
- Discovery Silver Corp. (DSV-T), up 32 per cent
- DPM Metals Inc. (DPM-T), up 30 per cent
- Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS-T), up 28 per cent
- CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T), up 28 per cent
- Skeena Resources Ltd. (SKE-T), up 28 per cent
- Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T), up 28 per cent
Stocks with the largest positive revisions to their average target prices over the past month include:
- Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE-T), up 25 per cent
- Sprott Inc. (SII-T), up 24 per cent
- Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T), up 21 per cent
- CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T), up 16 per cent
- Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T), up 16 per cent
- Finning International Inc. (FTT-T), up 16 per cent
- Curaleaf Holdings Inc. (CURA-T), up 14 per cent
- Quebecor Inc. (QBR-B-T), up 13 per cent
- Aris Mining Corp. (ARIS-T), up 13 per cent
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T), up 11 per cent
As of Nov. 28, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 16.7 times the 2026 consensus earnings estimate, according to Bloomberg. Earnings estimates have been rising earnings growth of 14.8 per cent now expected over the next 12 months.
Looking ahead, historically December has delivered mixed results. The S&P/TSX Composite Index has rallied in six of the past 10 years, and in 13 of the past 20 years. Most recently, the S&P/TSX Composite Index declined 3.6 per cent in 2024, advanced 3.6 per cent in 2023, fell 5.2 per cent in 2022, climbed 2.7 per cent in 2021 and increased 1.4 per cent in 2020.
Now, here’s a look at analysts’ current target prices, recommendations, forecast returns and yields for all securities in the S&P/TSX Composite Index grouped by sector and ranked according to their expected price returns (excluding dividend and distribution income).
The posted target price for each security is an average of all available target prices from analysts. A target price typically reflects an expected share or unit price 12 months from now based on an analyst’s financial modelling, such as a discounted cash flow or sum-of-the-parts model. For the yield provided, Bloomberg calculates this figure by annualizing the most recent announced dividend or distribution value.
It’s important to note that high target prices, which imply stellar returns that seem unbelievable may be just that - unrealistic. At times, when a stock price falls analysts may maintain their bullish expectations, inflating the forecast return.
In addition, an outlier (extreme target price) can skew the average target price, to the upside or downside, particularly when the number of analysts covering a stock is low. Don’t let a huge projected gain lure you into a position – it is critical to look at the company and industry fundamentals.
Click here to download an Excel version of the report.
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